Good morning, ladies and gents. The summer lull continues, but we have a handful of investment updates emerging from Egypt along with movement on CMA CGM’s M&A ambitions in October Dry port. Let’s get the ball rolling.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Turkey and Iraq will suspend their Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline agreement until next year on 27 July 2026, Reuters reports, citing Turkey's Official Gazette (pdf). Turkey is, however, intent on negotiating a new agreement, hoping to resume crude oil exports through the connection, according to the newswire.

Background: The pipeline — capable of transporting c. 500k bbl/d of crude oil, with plans to export c. 300k bbl/d to Turkey — has been closed since 2023 for repairs. Turkey later suspended operations following an arbitration court order, currently being appealed, to pay a USD 1.5 bn compensation to Iraq. Disruptions within the Strait of Hormuz — which handles 83% of Iraq’s oil exports — and prolonged talks between the governments of Iraq and Kurdistan have incentivized the renewed efforts to resume the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline.

#2- EU sanctions UAE firm for supporting shadow fleet: The EU has placed sanctions on UAE-based Intershipping Services for operating the Gabonese and Comorian flag registries, which it accuses of flagging vessels transporting sanctioned Russian crude oil and petroleum, according to a statement (pdf). Several Gabon and Comoros-flagged ships are operating without proper ins. and disabling automatic identification systems to avoid detection, the statement said. The bloc claims that by flagging such vessels — some of whom are allegedly controlled by Russian giant Sovcomflot — the UAE company is aiding Moscow’s shadow fleet.

Intershipping Services? The firm is the sole authorized representative for Gabon’s maritime administration, with branches in India and Greece, according to its website. Its services include ship registrations, mortgage registrations, ship audits, flag-related services, and STCW endorsements.

Iranian oil magnate, Dubai firms also targeted: The EU has also sanctioned Iranian oil businessman Hossein Shamkhani and his Dubai-based firms Admiral Shipping and Milavous Group for allegedly supporting Russia’s shadow fleet, Bloomberg reports. The bloc alleges that Milavous Group blends and rebrands Russian crude oil to obscure its origin for export, while Admiral Shipping facilitates the transport and sale of Russian crude.

#3- Israel has struck Houthi targets in Yemen’s Hodeidah Port, which it claims is being used to supply the militant group with Iran-sourced weapons, Reuters reports, citing a statement from the Israeli military. Israel was “forcefully countering any attempt to restore the terror infrastructure previously attacked,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz was quoted as saying.

Hodeidah was struck this month: The Israeli military launched strikes on three Yemeni ports — Hodeidah, Ras Isa, and Salif — earlier this month in retaliation to missiles fired at Israel from Yemen.

Attacks could incapacitate Yemen’s trade: Hodeidah port is responsiblefor about 80% of the country’s food imports. The port is also essential for the country’s humanitarian aid operations— has seen its capacity for aid imports fall to about a quarter due to Israeli attacks,

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices dipped in early morning trading as concerns of a brewing US-EU trade war weighed down investors’ sentiments, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures dipped USD 0.25 to reach USD 68.69 a barrel by 03.25 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell by USD 0.51 to trade at USD 66.69 a barrel.

Meanwhile, the Middle East is expected to post a steady increase in crude and condensate exports through 2050, according to Opec’s World Oil Outlook 2025 (pdf). Volumes are projected to rise from 17.4 mn bbl/d in 2024 to 20.2 mn bbl/d by 200, and 28.2 mn bbl/d by mid-century. The nearly 11 mn bbl/d increase is tied to the region’s anticipated supply growth, as it continues to expand production capacity over the next two decades.

Asia-Pacific remains the primary destination for Middle Eastern crude, absorbing more than 80% of the region’s exports throughout the outlook period. Shipments to the region are forecasted to grow from 15.2 mn bbl/d in 2024 to 16.9 mn bbl/d by 200, and then jump to 23.5 mn bbl/d by 2050, driven by rising demand in Asian economies.

Europe is also expected to deepen its reliance on Middle Eastern barrels, with imports projected to grow from 1.5 mn bbl/d in 2024 to 2.4 mn bbl/d by 2030, and 2.8 mn bbl/d by 2050. The report cites the quality of crude as a key factor behind sustained European demand. Shipments to North America are seen increasing in the medium term, reaching a peak of 1.5 mn bbl/d in 2040 before falling back to 1.1 mn bbl/d by 2050 as US demand tapers off.

Domestic crude use in the region will grow from 8.2 mn bbl/d in 2024 to 10.8 mn bbl/d in 2050, driven by expanding refining capacity and rising product export.

ALSO- Africa’s total crude and condensate exports will hold steady at around 5.2 mn bbl/d through 2035. However by 2050, they are expected to decline to 4.2 mn bbl/d, driven by rising domestic demand and strategic value addition.

Consumption on the continent is projected to nearly triple, rising from 1.8 mn bbl/d in 2024 to 4.5 mn bbl/d by 2050. Opec attributes the growth to a mix of population expansion, industrialization, and a push in refining and infrastructure meant to reduce reliance on imported fuel products.

Europe will remain a key export destination in the near term, with flows peaking at 3 mn bbl/d in 2030 before gradually falling to 2.3 mn bbl/d by 2050. Exports to North America will decline significantly, reaching just 100k bbl/d by 2045, as African barrels lose ground to Latin American suppliers.

The Asia-Pacific region is positioned as a stable and growing market. Exports to the region are expected to remain at 1.9 mn bbl/d through 2030, rise modestly to 2.2 mn bbl/d by 2040, and then ease to 1.8 mn bbl/d by mid-century.

#2- Baltic index snaps upwards trajectory: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — dropped 1.8% to 2,052 points on Monday. The capesize decreased 3.3% to 2,9814 points, while the panamax index dipped 0.2% to 1,915 points. The smaller supramax index remained steady at 1,346 points.

DATA POINT-

Abu Dhabi Airports’ cargo operations processed 344.8k tons of freight YTD in 1H 2025, Wam reports. The boost is supported by infrastructure developments including a new 70k sqm e-commerce logistics facility developed through a joint venture with JD Property.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Mozambique will host Intermodal Africa on Tuesday, 22 July and run till Thursday, 24 July in Beira. The forum will host over 300 senior government officials, industry leaders, academics, senior executives, and harbor masters in the ports, shipping, and logistics sector. Attendees and speakers will be coming from countries across the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.

Oman will host Transport Middle East on Monday, 1 September and run till Wednesday, 3 September in Salalah. The conference will host 35 international speakers and over 50 exhibitors from the maritime sector to discuss global transportation and logistics.

Saudi Arabia will host the Sustainable Maritime Industry Conference on Wednesday, 3 and Thursday, 4 September in Jeddah. The event is set to gather over 60 speakers and more than 3k participants to discuss maritime decarbonization, digital transformation, regulatory frameworks, capacity building, and sustainable practices.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.