Saudi Arabia rolls out land bridge lifeline for Gulf trade

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

TODAY: Saudi to the rescue with a Hormuz workaround?

Good morning, nice people. We’re in the final stretch of Ramadan now, with just a few more sleeps until a much-needed Eid break.

First up, finding a way around Hormuz: As the strait grows riskier, Saudi Arabia is positioning itself as the region’s bridge — linking Red Sea ports with inland routes feeding Gulf markets. This could turn Jeddah, Yanbu, and King Abdullah Port into a back door for cargo that would normally sail through Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Tehran is turning up the pressure: Iran is doubling down on its pledge to choke off Hormuz — and regional energy infrastructure is increasingly finding itself in the crosshairs.

The big logistics story abroad

The regional war is still getting ink from all international dailies — no surprise there — as Washington raises the stakes. US President Donald Trump has warned Nato that it faces a “very bad” future if the coalition does not help the US in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, he told the Financial Times. Trump also signaled that he may delay his sit-down with China’s President Xi Jinping — scheduled for later this month — in efforts to pressure Beijing to act.

In other news from Washington, Trump called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK over the weekend to send warships to force open the Strait of Hormuz along with US naval forces. Meanwhile, Tehran claimed that the waterway is only shut to ships from “enemies.”

Meanwhile, officials quietly eased pressure on another front. The US Treasury issued a 30-day waiver allowing Russian crude and petroleum products already loaded on tankers before 12 March to be delivered and offloaded, clearing cargoes stuck at sea after sanctions blocked their sale.

Watch this space

INVESTMENT — DHL Express Europe plans to proceed with its investment plans in the Middle East despite the ongoing regional conflict, CEO Mike Parra told Sky News Arabia (watch, runtime: 4:43).

ICYMI- DHL group last year announced plans to deploy over EUR 500 mn in the region between 2024 and 2030, with a focus on the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The strategy spans the group’s four divisions — DHL Express, DHL Global Forwarding, DHL Supply Chain, and DHL eCommerce. DHL Express is expected to upgrade its hub and gateway infrastructure while expanding air fleet capacity.

Disruptions from the conflict have meant DHL has had to tweak some of its routes, with airport closures and shipping delays prompting the company to reroute cargo by flying shipments to hubs in Asia, including Kazakhstan, before transporting them by road into the Middle East, Parra said.

LOST INVESTMENT? — Gulf producers watch bns of USD slip through Hormuz: The near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has already erased an estimated USD 15 bn in energy revenues for Gulf exporters, according to Kpler data picked up by the Financial Times.

The breakdown: The chokepoint typically moves some USD 1.2 bn worth of crude, refined products, and LNG every day (based on last year’s prices and volumes), and currently, at least USD 10.7 bn worth of cargoes are still stranded inside, awaiting safe passage. Losses are piling up unevenly, however, with Saudi Arabia alone missing out on some USD 4.5 bn in revenues since the start of the war.

Why it matters: Although producers can cushion some of the shock through storage, price gains, or alternative routes, the disruption has exposed the fiscal dependence of Gulf economies on uninterrupted export flows.

TRADE — Egypt’s Agriculture Ministry is pushing to increase exports to Arab and Gulf markets, according to a statement. Agriculture Minister Alaa Farouk pointed to a spike in demand from Gulf importers for specific Egyptian crops, primarily peppers, lettuce, and lemons, as regional buyers scramble to diversify their fresh food sources. However, the ministry argues that this export drive will not trigger domestic shortages, as the push only applies to surplus crops.

Why it matters: This is a clear crisis-to-advantage maneuver. As traditional trade routes in the Gulf and Red Sea face volatility, the government is leveraging Egypt’s land and maritime links to become the primary breadbasket for the GCC. If exporters can maintain the high technical and sanitary standards required by Gulf authorities under these quasi-emergency conditions, the sector could see a permanent expansion of its market share in the region long after the current tensions subside.

Market watch

Oil prices rose this morning as concerns over Middle East oil outweighs calls to secure Hormuz, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures gained USD 1.27 to trade at USD 104.41 / bbl by 04.00 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased USD 0.54 to USD 99.25 / bbl.

The Baltic Index adds another day of gains: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — rose 2.8% to 2,028 points on Friday, advancing for a third straight session. The capesize climbed 5.8% to 2,880 points, and the panamax index edged up 0.2% to 1,838, while the smaller supramax index slipped 0.5% to 1,283 points.

The Drewry World Container Index increased by 8% to USD 2,123 per 40-ft container last week, according to the latest index readings. The rise is driven by an increase across transpacific and Asia-Europe rates, especially Shanghai-Rotterdam (19%) and Shanghai-Genoa (10%), as carriers tighten capacity and implement higher freight-all-kind (FAK) rates.

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Land bridge over troubled waters

Gulf trade looks for alternative roads, and KSA is the bridge: A logistics corridor linking Saudi Arabia’s west-coast ports to inland transport and customs routes feeding Gulf markets has been launched, keeping supply chains moving while bypassing Hormuz.

The move turns Red Sea ports into a fallback gateway for Gulf trade. Cargo arriving via the Suez Canal can land at Jeddah Islamic Port, King Abdullah Port, or Yanbu Commercial Port before moving overland to Gulf markets. That means goods from Asia or Europe can reach the Gulf without passing through Hormuz.

Disruptions are forcing traders to look for alternatives: Shipping companies are already avoiding Hormuz as ins. costs and war risk escalate. Under normal conditions, around one-fifth of global seaborne oil and gas trade passes through the strait, along with a significant share of Gulf-bound goods.

Why this matters

The push for alternative routes reflects a broader change in supply chains. We are seeing a shift where customers are requiring a plan B shipping option or “backup offer” — a consideration often neglected by large global industries in the past, until recent crises exposed the fragility of single-route supply chains, Folk Maritime CEO Poul Hestbaek told us last year.

The stakes are significant: When shipping through Hormuz became unreliable, the Gulf’s entire trade model came under pressure. Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea ports and overland transport network offer one of the few existing pathways through which cargo can be rerouted at scale without relying on the eastern coast.

Some carriers are adapting, Neil Lowry, Athens correspondent at Lloyd’s List, said in an overview talk attended by EnterpriseAM. Lowry pointed to the AE19 service launched by Gemini carriers that sails around the Cape of Good Hope into the Mediterranean and then into Jeddah, where cargo can move onward to Gulf markets via land bridge and rail connections.

Port operators are already bracing for the shift: DP World — which operates the South Container Terminal at Jeddah Islamic Port — expects rising volumes at its Red Sea terminals as the closure of the strait diverts traffic away from Gulf ports, CEO Yuvraj Narayan said. Terminals such as Jeddah are likely to see higher traffic as cargo is rerouted, he said.

The advantage? Spare port capacity. Ports along the kingdom’s west coast have an annual capacity exceeding 18.6 mn TEUs, much of it not fully utilized.

REMEMBER- The Red Sea is getting a second chance: At least 25 supertankers have been reported heading toward Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu Commercial Port to keep crude flowing. The play hinges on the east-west pipeline, the kingdom’s emergency bypass around Hormuz. Crude flows through the pipeline are ramping up toward its full 7 mn bbl / d capacity within days.

This second chance could create “healthy” competition: Saudi investments in inland logistics zones and Red Sea gateways will narrow the perceived gap with established hubs in the UAE, Wolfgang Lehmacher, former head of supply chain and transport industries at the World Economic Forum, tells EnterpriseAM.

BUT- In a world of weaponized interdependence, there’s more value in a connected Middle Eastern platform of interoperable hubs — Jeddah, Yanbu, Dammam, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Salalah, Aqaba, and others — rather than in a zero-sum race where everyone tries to become “the” hub, Lehmacher said. The advice would be to compete on performance but collaborate on standards, data, and interoperability, ensuring the region becomes more indispensable and resilient to global shippers and investors, he added.

What’s next?

Players could opt to design portfolios of corridors that give them options when geopolitics, markets, or climate turn against us, Lehmacher said. “By shifting part of the flow away from the Gulf and toward the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, these corridors do not make Hormuz irrelevant, but they do change the geometry of power in the region: market access, risk, and bargaining leverage will no longer be concentrated in a single narrow waterway,” he added.

For now, the real indicator will be cargo movement itself — whether cargo shifts in scale and shipping lines actually shift flows. Early signals suggest the market is already testing alternatives. If rerouting accelerates, the kingdom’s Red Sea ports could move from backup option to central gateway for GCC trade even after the conflict eases.

Iran intensifies oil pressure

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said that Hormuz must remain closed “to put pressure on the enemy,” in his first public statement broadcast on Iranian state television, CNBC Arabia reports. Khamenei also warned that all US military bases in the Middle East must be closed immediately, otherwise they will remain targets.

The oil pressure campaign is intensifying: Iran is doubling down on its promise to “not let a drop of oil leave the strait,” shifting between tanker harassment and a crackdown on regional storage infrastructure. The ramp-up in attacks appears to signal what IG Group analyst Tony Sycamore identified as a response to the IEA’s announcement of a massive reserve release aimed at cooling runaway prices.

IN CONTEXT- Some 15 mn bpd crude and 5 mn bpd in oil production is being disrupted, characterized as the largest volumetric supply shock “in the history of the modern oil market,” Center on Global Energy Policy Senior Fellow Daniel Sternoff said, with around 31% of seaborne oil effectively paused.

The crackdown: Oil storage in the crosshairs

Back online, for now: Oil loading at Fujairah is back online after a drone-sparked fire briefly halted operations on Saturday, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. While the Fujairah media office confirmed civil defense forces contained the fire with no reported injuries, authorities have not yet provided a timeline for a full return to operations.

One notable detail: No oil tankers were present at the port’s oil loading points at the time, which says something about demand and access. Fujairah sits outside Hormuz and is connected to Abu Dhabi’s oil fields by a pipeline, allowing Murban crude exports to bypass the strait.

Still, activity in Fujairah continued shortly after: An Indian oil tanker safely departed for India from Fujairah with 80.8k tons of the UAE’s Murban oil, Reuters reports, citing India’s Petroleum and Natural Gas Ministry. The ministry said 22 Indian vessels remain stranded west of the Strait of Hormuz, while two state-owned LPG carriers successfully transited the strait over the weekend after Iran allowed them passage, delivering fuel to Indian ports.

Meanwhile, jet fuel supply has tightened: Jet fuel storage tanks at Bahrain’s International Airport were set ablaze on Thursday. Up to 30% of Europe’s jet fuel supply comes from the Strait of Hormuz. “Industry-wide, the price of oil — and therefore jet fuel — is also of significant concern. The higher prices rise, and the longer they stay there, the wider the impact will be felt,” Ian Petchenik, director of Communications at Flightradar24, told EnterpriseAM.

Even alternative routes are under pressure: Massive fires broke out at fuel storage tanks at Oman’s Salalah Port on Wednesday after a drone strike. While the Omani government claims no immediate disruption to domestic supply, Maersk has paused all operations at the port. Salalah port had remained a key safe transshipment hub as it sits outside the strait.

PLUS- Adnoc is cutting its onshore shipments: In a strategic shift to bypass the Strait of Hormuz — which has come to a virtual standstill — Adnoc has reportedly cut onshore crude shipments to its equity partners by 20% this month.

The bottom line: The Gulf is shifting from a transit risk to a storage trap. With production sites and storage terminals unsafe, suppliers are being forced to shut down operations and declare forced majeure, as their storage facilities quickly fill up and exit routes are effectively blocked.

The crackdown: Vessels in the line of fire

A container ship operated by German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd was hit near Jebel Ali Port, the company’s Director of Communications Nils Haupt told the Wall S treet Journal. The incident resulted in a fire, but no casualties were reported. The firm had previously diverted shipping through the Arabian Gulf, opting to keep calling at Oman’s Salalah Port rather than Jebel Ali.

Ships in the region have taken a beating this week, with three vessels hit on Wednesday — two off the coast of the UAE and one 11 nm north of Oman.

…and restrictions have thus tightened: Hapag-Lloyd suspended bookings to Red Sea ports, for all dangerous goods cargo until further notice as of Thursday. This extends to Egypt’s Sokhna Port, Jeddah Port in Saudi Arabia, and Jordan’s Aqaba Port.

The crackdown: Shippers reroute and regroup

Ports under pressure: Iran called for the evacuation of three major ports in the UAE after the US launched strikes on Kharg Island — a key hub for Iranian oil exports — on Saturday.

Jebel Ali holds steady — for now: “While infrastructure remains fully operational, we are deploying regional rerouting and operational mitigation measures to maintain supply chain continuity during this period,” DP World CEO Yuvraj Narayan said on Thursday.

Cargo is shifting east: Regional ports on the Gulf of Oman are seeing a surge in vessel activity as shippers seek alternatives to the chokepoint where thousands of vessels remain stranded.

But the alternatives are limited: Despite the rerouting of cargo to the UAE’s eastern seaboard, a massive capacity shortfall looms. Jebel Ali handled 15.6 mn TEUs last year. By contrast, the UAE’s ports outside the Strait have strict ceilings — Khorfakkan can handle 5 mn TEUs and Fujairah less than 1 mn. This leaves the UAE unable to fully compensate for lost throughput at Jebel Ali or Abu Dhabi’s Khalifa Port.

And they may not be safe either: The strike on Fujairah suggests that even facilities outside the Persian Gulf are no longer immune to regional spillover.

Shipping lines are feeling the squeeze: Maersk is also scrambling to protect fuel access — redistributing bunkering supplies across its network as the conflict disrupts fuel flows and storage in the Gulf. The carrier has 10 ships stranded in the Gulf, while around 100 container ships in the area are facing mounting access and operational risks.

And its exposure runs deeper: The Gulf is a key bunkering corridor for container shipping, with ports such as Fujairah, Jebel Ali, and Ras Tanura serving as major refueling hubs, shipping expert John D. McCown told EnterpriseAM.

Two layers of risk: This leaves the Danish carrier two layers of exposure — one is direct through the wider disruption to roughly 20% of global crude flows, while the other is indirect through vessels that normally refuel in the region and now face refinery and access disruptions — leaving part of Maersk’s fleet exposed to fuel-related stress, McCown added.

Energy markets are on edge

The slew of strikes rattled markets — causing Brent crude to shoot up beyond USD 100 per barrel last week, after it had just eased back down.

Another producer pulls back: TotalEnergies joined the list of oil producers halting a portion of regional operations across the UAE, Qatar, and Iraq, which accounts for 15% of its global production output, Asharq Business reports.

Looking elsewhere to compensate? TotalEnergies announced it is relaunching production at Libya’s Mabruk oil field — in which it holds a 37% stake — to boost its output in North Africa. Production at the site was halted in 2015, but a new 25k bpd capacity production unit was integrated at the plant in 2024.

Some output remains stable: The energy player said that its onshore operations in the UAE — yielding around 210k bbl / d — remain unaffected by the ongoing regional war. Bahrain’s Bapco and QatarEnergy are among the other firms stopping operations.

What’s next?

Supply chain contagion: Beyond oil, roughly 50% of the ships typically transiting the strait carry raw materials for fertilizers, plastics, and electronics. We can expect a sharp spike in input costs for regional manufacturers as these materials become bottled up.

DP World had a good FY 2025

DP World earnings buoyed by high volumes

DP World’s bottom line jumped 32.2% y-o-y to around USD 1.9 bn in FY 2025, buoyed by strong volumes, improved yields, and tighter cost control, according to its financial release (pdf). Meanwhile, revenue climbed 22% to USD 24.4 bn.

The logistics, parks, and economic zones division saw the biggest jump in revenues, growing 28.1% y-o-y to USD 10.5 bn, supported by recent acquisitions; while ports and terminals revenues rose 20.3% y-o-y to USD 9.3 bn, thanks to healthy volumes, revenue per TEU growth, and a continued focus on high-margin cargo; and marine services posted the smallest revenue base but a solid earnings contribution, with a 12.9% y-o-y increase to USD 4.6 bn.

Agility Global FY 2025 net income nearly doubles

ADX-listed Kuwaiti logistics firm Agility Global saw its net income nearly double in FY 2025, reporting an 88% y-o-y surge to USD 240 mn, according to a press release. The company’s revenue rose 13% y-o-y to USD 5.1 bn during the same period.

Menzies Aviation remained the main growth engine, with revenue increasing 16.1% y-o-y to USD 3 bn. Tristar’s revenue grew 14.4% y-o-y to USD 1.4 bn due to tighter cost discipline, and Agility Logistics Parks pushed revenue 13% y-o-y higher to USD 59 mn.

Qatar Airways using cargo fleet to bolster domestic supply

Qatar Airways has put part of its 30-aircraft fleet on essential-goods duty to keep vital goods moving into Qatar, as the regional war continues to disrupt normal cargo flows and complicate air logistics across the Gulf. The airline has already transported nearly 300 tons of essential commodities into the country since the start of March, and is bringing more than 200 tons of essential imports into Doha daily through flights from major markets across Africa, Australia, Asia, Europe, India, and Pakistan.

Europe’s energy crunch returns

Europe’s energy shock is here: The regional war has tightened LNG supply just as Europe heads into refill season with thinner buffers, with the UK being particularly exposed due to having one of the thinnest gas storage cushions on the continent.

Despite its lack of storage, the UK still has three LNG import terminals and can pull in marginal barrels from the US, energy analyst at CSC Commodities Sacha Foss told EnterpriseAM.

How much is really there? Britain had just 6.9k GWh in storage in early March, down from 9.1k GWh a year earlier. That is roughly equivalent to two days of gas in storage. The UK system depends on continuous inflows from North Sea production, Norwegian pipeline gas, LNG cargoes, and interconnectors with Europe.

The storage gap: Britain’s storage sites can hold only around 12 days of demand, versus about 90 days in Germany, and more than 100 in France — which makes it the quickest in Europe to see global gas shocks affect wholesale prices, power costs, and household bills. Gas still fuels around 30% of Britain’s electricity generation and heats more than 70% of homes — so once LNG tightens, the UK feels it quickly.

Prices could be a real problem. The UK’s main vulnerability is not running out of gas, but paying much more for it if Hormuz stays disrupted, Foss said. With spot LNG still central to pricing and gas-fired power often setting the marginal electricity price, the effect would spread through industry, households, and the wider economy, Foss added.

Europe’s wider problem

The broader European system looks sturdier than Britain's, but it is hardly comfortable. EU storage stood at 27% on 12 March — the lowest for this point in the year since 2022 — which means the bloc is heading into refill season needing more LNG in a market that just got tighter.

The market is already reacting: Benchmark European gas prices have surg ed, with the Dutch TTF front-month contract jumping 55% between 25 February and 4 March as the Hormuz disruption and the Ras Laffan shutdown continue to tighten global LNG supply.

Where the pressure builds: If the Hormuz paralysis lasts a month, Europe could effectively lose around 7.6 bcm of gas as Asia outbids it for replacement LNG, pushing prices above EUR 60 per MWh from roughly EUR 50.

Small share, big impact: Qatar supplied only about 8% of EU LNG imports in 2Q 2025, but the Ras Laffan shutdown still pushed up European gas prices more than 50% and tightened competition for cargoes across markets, with tankers already diverting toward Asia as buyers there scramble to replace lost Qatari supply.

Exposure is uneven across Europe

A stronger starting point: Central and Eastern Europe are more resilient to supply shocks than they were after Russia’s 2022 invasion, which is due to diversification into LNG, Norwegian gas, new pipeline links, and renewables.

Poland’s push for independence: Poland has spent the past decade building alternatives to Russian supply. Its Baltic access has helped it cut out Russian oil, with the Gdansk serving as an import gateway that now feeds refineries in Germany. Warsaw is now pushing the shift further with around 6 GW of offshore wind planned in the Baltic and a nuclear plant on the coast

A region moving at different speeds: The Czech Republic has built a clearer western route for its energy needs, replacing Russian gas with Norwegian supply and LNG, and ending its dependence on Russian oil after expanding capacity on the TAL pipeline in 2025. Hungary still sits on the other side of the divide — as it remains heavily tied to Russian energy, with around three quarters of its gas and nearly all of its oil still coming from Russia, which is why its markets have been hit harder than most in Central Europe in recent days.

Russia is still in the background

Russian gas on a legal countdown: The EU has now put Russian gas on a legal phaseout timetable, with existing short-term LNG imports ending by 25 April 2026, short-term pipeline gas by 17 June 2026, long-term LNG by 1 January 2027, and long-term pipeline gas by 30 September 2027.

A chance to redirect flows: Moscow says the closure of Hormuz has already driven a significant jump in demand for Russian Energy. With Europe heading for a full phaseout, Russia is now discussing redirecting LNG cargoes from Europe to buyers including India, Thailand, China, and the Philippines — turning the Iran war from supply shock into an opening for Russian gas to move deeper to Asia.

The wider market response came a day later, when the International Energy Agency’s 32 member countries agreed to release 400 mn barrels from emergency reserves, which is significantly larger than the 182 mn release by the agency when Russia invaded Ukraine — making it the largest move of its kind. The barrels are set to be released over a set time period and will be allocated according to each country’s needs.

Calendar

2026

MARCH

18-19 March (Wednesday-Thursday): IntraLogisteX, Birmingham, United Kingdom.

18-19 March (Wednesday-Thursday): Green Marine Transport Conference, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

26 March (Thursday): Gulf Ship Finance Forum, Dubai, UAE.

APRIL

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

16-17 April (Thursday-Friday): Global Supply Chain and Logistics Summit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

23-24 April (Thursday-Friday): Sustainability World Summit, Frankfurt, Germany.

28-30 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Mediterranean Ports and Logistics, Porto, Portugal.

MAY

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): The Airport Show, Dubai, UAE.

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Aviation Energy Forum (AEF), Paris, France.

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Seamless Middle East, Dubai, UAE.

19-21 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Ground Handling Conference (IGHC), Cairo, Egypt.

19-21 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Terminal Operations Conference & Exhibition, Hamburg, Germany.

JUNE

2-4 June (Tuesday-Thursday): ProPak Mena, Cairo, Egypt.

4-5 June (Thursday-Friday): Supply Chain and Logistics Summit, Amsterdam, Netherlands.

6-8 June (Saturday-Monday): IATA World Air Transport Summit, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

10-11 June (Wednesday-Thursday): Black Sea Ports and Logistics, Istanbul, Turkey.

22-23 June (Monday-Tuesday): Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, Rotterdam, Netherlands.

AUGUST

30-1 August (Sunday-Tuesday): Air Cargo Middle East, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

30-1 August (Sunday-Tuesday): Saudi Warehouse and Logistics Expo, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

SEPTEMBER

16-17 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Saudi Maritime & Logistics Congress, Dammam, Saudi Arabia.

28-30 September (Monday-Wednesday): Transport Logistics Middle East, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

OCTOBER

21-22 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Global Ports Forum, Singapore.

26-29 (Monday-Thursday): Air Cargo Forum, Miami, US.

27-29 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Routes World, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

NOVEMBER

2-5 November (Monday-Thursday): ADIPEC Maritime and Logistics Exhibition and Conference, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

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TODAY: Saudi to the rescue with a Hormuz workaround?