Regional shipping, energy sectors brace for the fallout of Israel-Iran escalation

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What we're tracking today

TODAY: Regional shipping, energy brace for impact + Agility’s Tristar secures USD 255 mn loan

Good morning, folks. It’s a packed issue as we begin this week after a newsfull weekend. Leading the issue today is a look into how the unprecedented Israeli escalation on Iran would impact regional shipping routes, as well as the energy sectors. Debt and zones updates from Kuwait and Syria also feature. But first, an update on Boeing’s woes after the Air India crash last week…

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY- Air India crash puts Boeing in the hot seat, again: An Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner — en route to London Gatwick from Ahmedabad — crashed moments after takeoff on Thursday, claiming at least 270 lives and awakening scrutiny into Boeing’s jet safety.

REMEMBER- The company’s aircraft has seen major safety issues over the last decade that prompted the US regulators to put a production cap of 38 jets a month. The company also recently narrowly avoided criminal prosecution for misleading officials over the extent of safety issues.

A first for the Dreamliner model: This is the first major incident involving the Dreamliner model, which was launched over a decade ago. Historically, Boeing’s recent safety troubles were largely linked to its best-selling model the 737 Max, which saw two major incidents in the last few years, including a 2019 crash in Ethiopia that killed 346 people.

A probe is launched: The Indian authorities announced a probe to investigate all possible causes, with the government also mulling over grounding the country’s Boeing 787 fleet entirely until the investigation reaches a close, according to a statement released on Thursday. India’s aviation regulatory authority ordered the airline to complete additional maintenance checks on the 34 Dreamliners in its fleet— made up of Boeing 787-8 and 787-9 — in its fleet. Boeing is fully cooperating with Air India and India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau, according to the statement.

The fallout reaches Paris Airshow: Boeing’s and GE’s CEOs have canceled a spate of public appearances, with GE’s Larry Culp canceling an investors day and Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg canceling his trip to the high-profile aviation event Paris Airshow, which kicks off today.

The story caught lots of ink in the int’l press: Reuters | AP | Bloomberg | The Financial Times | CNN | BBC | The Guardian

HAPPENING TODAY-

The Paris International Airshow will open its doors today, and run throughout this week before wrapping up on the 22nd June. A spate of jet orders from regional and global airliners is expected to take place — here’s a rundown:

PIF-owned AviLease is expected to announce an order for dozens of Airbus A320neos, with a purchase of A350 freighters also on the cards;

Riyadh Air is set to acquire 25Airbus A350jets ;

Moroccan flag carrier Royal Air Maroc is close to finalizing an order for about two dozen Boeing 787 Dreamliners for long-haul destinations, and up to 50 Boeing 737s and 20 Airbus A220s for short-haul routes;

VietJet is in talks to acquire 100 A321neo narrow jets from Airbus;

Malaysian airline AirAsia is set to ink an agreement for nearly 100 regional jets at the Paris Airshow, but remains undecided between Airbus’ SE A220 or Embraer SA’s E2;

IndiGo is eyeing a 30 to 50 large order of ATR 72-600 planes.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Morocco to see 500 MW data center this year: A consortium comprising South Korea’s Naver, tech giant Nvidia, and AI infrastructure company Nexus Core Systems is reportedly looking to set up a 500 MW data center in Morocco in 2025, Morocco World News reports, citing Seoul-based outlet Korea Joongang Daily. Naver hopes the project would serve as a launchpad into the European market. No investment ticket has been reported.

The details: Naver Cloud, an arm of the South Korean firm, will operate the data center — whose first phase will consist of a 40 MW capacity. Construction is set to begin by 4Q 2025, with

with Nvidia’s GB200 microchips.

ICYMI- US-based tech startup Iozera signed an MoU last year to establish a 386 MW data center and AI hub in Morocco’s Tetouan last year. The hub is set to provide green energy-fueled AI cloud computing services to firms active in Morocco, the US, and other nations.

#3- UAE’s state-owned AI firm G42 has launched a new subsidiary headquartered in London, the company said in a statement. The new entity — G42 Europe & UK — will localize the group’s AI solutions for private and public sector clients across the UK and continental Europe, as G42 expands its AI infrastructure footprint across the region.

What they’re planning: The subsidiary will deliver end-to-end AI services — spanning strategic advisory, model development, infrastructure deployment, and managed services — with a focus on healthcare, financial services, energy, and manufacturing. It will partner with local governments and industry to advance regional data sovereignty and infrastructure development.

Leadership: G42 General Counsel Marty Edelman (LinkedIn) and World Wide Technology board member Omar Mir (LinkedIn) will serve as co-chairs of the new unit.

REMEMBER- This comes amid a wider UAE push to grow its AI presence across Europe. In February, the UAE pledged USD 40 bn in investments across Italian sectors including AI and digital infrastructure. A separate bilateral agreement with France, also announced in February, saw the UAE commit USD 30-50 bn toward French AI and data infrastructure.

IN OTHER RELATED NEWS- Dubai’s Yango taps Serbia’s data center: Dubai-based tech company Yango Group has signed an MoU to host its own server infrastructure at Serbia’s State Data Center in Kragujevac, with the site expected to go live later this year, Arabian Business reported on Thursday. The center will be Yango’s main infrastructure site, and its service will go online through a single-tenant framework — meaning that Yango’s servers will be isolated from others in the facility.

Why Serbia? The group cited Serbia’s geographic location, energy and cost efficiency, and data center-friendly regulatory environment as the main factors in selecting Kragujevac.

#3- Airbus boosts 20-year global market projections: European aircraft manufacturer Airbus is projecting airplane deliveries to increase twofold to 43.4k freight and passenger jets in 2025 to 2044, according to statements here (pdf) and here (pdf) released last week. The firm is expecting its global in-service fleet to double from 24.7k to 49.2k aircraft in 2044 — with nearly 44% of new deliveries slated to replace less fuel-efficient aircraft models.

On the demand side, Airbus is projecting its aircraft demand to hit 42.4k jets during the same period — comprising 9.2k widebody aircraft and 34.2k single-aisle jets, according to a statement (pdf).

Meanwhile, Boeing follows suit: American manufacturer Boeing is forecasting its commercial aircraft to reach 44k in 2025 to 2044 — boosted by expansions across emerging markets that are set to account for over 50% of the global commercial fleet in 2044, according to statements here and here (pdf). The firm is projecting its global fleet to increase 1.8-fold from 27k to 50k commercial aircraft, while nearly 80% of in-service airplanes will be replaced to boost efficiency.

High projections for the Middle East: Traffic growth in the Middle East will grow by 4.4%, deliveries will reach 3k aircraft, while the fleet will grow by 4% to 3.5k aircraft in 2044, according to a statement (pdf).

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices surged this morning as the Israel-Iran escalation heightens concerns over disrupted supplies from the region, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures rose by USD 0.64 to reach USD 74.87 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) went up by USD 0.76 to USD 73.74 a barrel by 05.07 GMT. This came after a volatile session that saw oil prices dipping and then surging by over USD 4.00.

Opec sees no need for panic: Opec is pushing back against growing concerns over global oil supply, dismissing the need for emergency action as geopolitical tensions rise, Reuters reports. Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said there is currently no disruption warranting market intervention, rejecting the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) warning as “false alarms” and "market fear,” Reuters adds, citing the Secretary General.

Market volatility: The Israel-Iran escalation of hostilities sent oil prices up by as much as 13% on Friday midday before settling up 7%. The IEA had earlier said it stands ready to tap its 1.2 bn barrel emergency reserves if the Israel-Iran conflict escalates and disrupts supply — a move Al Ghais said is “unwarranted” given market conditions. Brent Crude futures are now up around 2.3%, to USD 75.93 a barrel.

The rapid price increase is partly because the spare oil production capacity held by Opec and its allies is only about equal to Iran’s total output, raising concerns about the ability to cover a significant supply disruption, the newswire reported separately, citing statements from analysts and Opec watchers.

Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have the immediate capacity to increase oil production, collectively able to add about 3.5 mn bbl / d, which is roughly equivalent to Iran’s current production of 3.3 mn bbl / d, of which over 2 mn bbl / d are exported, according to analysts and industry sources. Saudi Arabia is the only member with tangible, readily available barrels, one source said, dismissing the rest as “paper” capacity.

Looking ahead: “[Oil’s] ultimate landing point will likely hinge on whether Iran revives the 2019 playbook and targets tankers, pipelines, and key energy facilities across the region,” Reuters added, citing a note from RBC Capital Markets’ Helima Croft.

Meanwhile,Fitch Ratings revised its 2025 outlook for the global oil and gas sector to deteriorate from neutral, according to a statement. The agency pointed to reduced economic prospects following US tariffs, a quicker-than-expected rollback of Opec+ voluntary cuts, and accelerating output from non-Opec+ producers as key drivers of the downgrade.

The rating agency slashed its oil price assumption for 2025 to USD 65 a barrel, down from USD 70 in April, though it left its medium-term and mid-cycle price forecasts unchanged. Fitch also slashed its oil demand growth, predicting it to increase by 800k bbl / d in 2025 — down from earlier projections of over 1 mn bbl / d.

#2- Baltic index rises once again: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — rose 3.4% to 1,968 points on Friday. The capesize index increased 4.7% to reach 3,722 points, while the panamax index was up 1.9% to 1,401 points. The supramax index rose three points to settle at 936.

#3- The Drewry World Container Index remained steady at USD 3,543 per 40-ft container on Thursday, according to the latest index readings. The increase comes on the back of heightened supply-demand equilibrium in global container shipping — a reversal of previous declining rates since January.

PSA-

Maersk to roll out new HWS: Danish shipping giant Maersk is set to roll out a heavy load surcharge (HWS) of USD 600 for 20 ft dry containers with verified gross mass (VGM) over 20 metric tons originating from Saudi Arabia, UAE, India, Pakistan heading to Latin America, according to a statement published Friday. The HWS is applicable starting 1 July 2025.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host Middle East Rail from Tuesday, 24 June to Thursday, 25 June in Dubai. The conference at Dubai World Trade Center will host over 250 speakers and a multi-brand exhibition for transport solutions.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

Escalating Israel-Iran conflict rattles regional shipping, and energy sector

Escalation disrupts region's logistics, energy sector: As Israel and Iran exchange airstrikes, concerns are rapidly mounting over the potential impact of a wider regional conflict. We take a deep dive into the ongoing and potential consequences for the region’s crucial shipping routes, energy flows, and aviation networks if the hostilities persist or escalate.

REFRESHER- The most dangerous confrontation between Israel and Iran in years: After months of heightened tensions and reports of an imminent Israeli attack, Israel struck Iran’s nuclear sites on Friday morning, along with the targeted assassinations of senior military figures and nuclear scientists. The two have since exchanged missiles and airstrikes over the weekend and show little signs of looking for an offramp, with Iran vowing revenge and Israel threatening even more devastating strikes and hinting at regime change.

SHIPPING DESTABILIZED

Are the regional waterways at risk? The Israel-Iran conflict has potentially put crucial shipping routes — the straits of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb — at risk of disruption, Bloomberg reported last week, citing shippers, brokers, and maritime analysts. “For now, this is a risk premium — owners will hold back from putting ships into the Gulf on a business-as-usual basis,” Oil Brokerage Ltd.’s global head of shipping research Anoop Singh told Bloomberg.

First up, the Suez Canal: While the Suez Canal has not felt the disruptions so far, Banking expert Hany Abou El Fotouh cautioned that “disruptions in regional maritime security or significant rises in ins. costs could temporarily prompt shipping lines to reconsider their routes.”

The disruptions could derail efforts to bring back global shipping lines to the waterway. Transit receipts from the Suez Canal dropped 62.3% y-o-y to USD 1.8 bn in 1H FY 2024-2025 on the back of Red Sea disruptions that pushed ships to reroute away from the canal. Tonnage through the canal was down some 70% y-o-y to 117.5 mn tons in 2Q of this year — despite the Suez Canal Authority offering a 15% discount in containership fees.

Ship owners have been wary of the region. Greece and the UK advised shipping firms to avoid sailing through the Southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden as well as log any and all movements through the Hormuz Strait, according to documents seen by Reuters. “A large-scale return of container ships to the Red Sea seems less likely, a situation which continues to have a major impact on ocean container shipping rates 18 months after” the Houthis began their attacks on vessels transiting the region, Xeneta chief shipping analyst Peter Sand told CNBC on Friday.

Oil tankers steer clear of Gulf: A dwindling number of oil tanker owners are willing to accept charters into the Arabian Gulf, with Frontline — the world’s largest listed oil tanker player — rejecting new contracts to sail the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating attacks between Iran and Israel, CEO Lars Barstad told the Financial Times last week. “Trade is going to become more inefficient and, of course, security has a price,” Barstad told the Financial Times.

Iran is mulling the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran Intl reports, quoting a member of the Parliament’s National Security Commission General Esmaeil Kowsari as saying. The strait — nestled between Oman and Iran — links the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and operates as a key shipping channel for Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, KSA, and the UAE, Reuters reports. It is responsible for the passage of around a fifth of the world’s total oil consumption — amounting to nearly 20 mn bpd of oil, condensate, and fuel.

Carriers will push for surcharges: Several shipping carriers are expected to push for a “security surcharge” on ocean freight container shipping rates in the “coming days,” Sand added amid “inevitable disruption and port congestion, as well as the potential for higher oil prices.”

Hapag-Lloyd has already rolled out increases..: Shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd has increased its general rates from the Indian Subcontinent and the Middle East to North America by USD 500 per container, according to a statement released on Friday. The move will impact shipments heading to the US and Canada from the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Iraq, KSA, and Jordan.

…and Maersk was quick to follow: Dutch Shipping giant Moller-Maersk also revised its peak season surcharge (PSS) for cargo traveling between the region and North America — rising to USD 3.5k per dry container and USD 3k per ref container, according to a statement released on Friday. The PSS will impact shipments headed from UAE, Yemen, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Iraq, KSA, and Jordan to the US and Canada.

ENERGY TROUBLES

Israeli gas suppliers formally invoked force majeure and suspended exports, including those to Jordan and Egypt — which reached around 800 mn cubic feet per day (mcf/d) last week — after Tel Aviv shuttered the offshore field as well as the Karish field amid Iranian retaliation. The Israeli Energy Ministry declared a state of emergency in the gas sector following the recent attacks, leaving no clear timeline for when pumping will resume, a government official told Asharq Business.

The sudden halt in gas flows from Israel’s Leviathan field is set to deepen energy crunch in Egypt and Jordan, forcing emergency reallocations, and factory shutdowns as the country scrambles to stabilize power generation ahead of peak summer demand. The two countries would need to generate another 10 to 12 LNG cargoes per month between them to fully replace Israel's haulS&P Global First Take LNG Analyst Laurent Ruseckas told Bloomberg on Friday.

Egypt takes drastic measures: Egypt has halted gas flows to energy intensive industries, such as fertilizers, suspending about 900 mn cf/d of natural gas to energy-intensive industries and cutting flows to steel producers to free up supply for the grid. The country is also planning to up its imports of mazut shipments to compensate for the halted flow and keep the country’s grid up as more regasification units arrive and become fully operational to process LNG imports, a senior government source told EnterpriseAM.

To guard against geopolitical tensions, Egypt is also raising the targeted summer spot LNG shipments to around 80 shipments to secure needs — up from the previously targeted 60 shipments, our source said. This is in addition to recently secured agreements for 80–100 LNG shipments annually, with the option to ramp up to 120 cargoes per year if needed at a then USD 0.70 premium over international prices before the recent uptick in global oil energy prices.

ON THE AVIATION FRONT

Regional unrest disrupts flight schedules in Egypt, UAE, Bahrain: EgyptAir paused flights to Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq yesterday, according to a statement. Flights going from Egypt to Beirut, Amman, Baghdad, and Erbil airports are canceled until further notice. Abu Dhabi-based budget carrier Wizz Air canceled all flights to Amman until 20 June, according to a statement. The UAE’s budget airline flydubai has also canceled flights to Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and Iraq — with plans to relaunch by 20 June. Bahrain’s Gulf Air followed suit, slashing scheduled flights to Jordan, Iraq, and Azerbaijan, BNA reports. The airline is scheduled to relaunch all flights by 21 June.

More air traffic disruptions in Jordan, Syria, Iran: Commercial flights in Iran, Israel, Syria, and Jordan were halted on Friday following Israel’s strikes on Iran, CNN reported on Friday, citing flight-tracking site Flightradar24. Three major airports — Tehran's Mehrabad, Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion, and Amman's Queen Alia International — all ceased operations on Friday. Tehran suspended all air traffic following the strikes.

Iraq’s air traffic felt the impact too: Iraq has suspended air traffic at all airports until further notice due to a recent flare up in regional tensions, according to a Friday statement by the Transport Ministry. The move was followed by a reopening of southern Iraqi airspace for flights departing from or arriving at Basra International Airport during daylight hours, a statement noted. Qatar Airways temporarily canceled flights headed to Iraqi airports in Baghdad, Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, Najaf, and Basra last Friday, according to a statement.

DATA POINT- Some 1.8k flights heading to or departing from Europe were impacted, including 650 canceled flights, Reuters reported on Friday.

A silver lining? Saudi Arabia and Egypt became the primary southern corridors for diverted air traffic, Reuters reported. As the flight advisory organization Safe Airspace noted, “Traffic is now diverting either south via Egypt and Saudi Arabia, or north via Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan.”

Tristar secures USD 255 mn loan to fund debts and business operations

Tristar funds growth via credit funding: Dubai-based energy logistics firm Tristar — partly owned by Kuwaiti logistics outfit Agility — has secured a USD 255 mn credit facility from several unnamed regional and international banks, according to a Boursa Kuwait statement (pdf). The facility — which has an 18-months tenor with certain extension options — will be used for refinancing and supporting ongoing business operations.

There might be room for more: The energy logistics firm could potentially apply for an additional USD 60 mn (c. KWD 18.4 mn) within three months.

REFRESHER- The company just had a solid 1Q: Tristar reported a 35% y-o-y jump in top line in 1Q — reaching USD 340 mn, fueled by the new Sri Lanka retail business.

Loans, stakes, and IPOs: Tristar was reportedly considering the sale of a company stake and consulting with advisors to boost shareholder value back in September 2024. The Agility logistics arm also planned to go public and offer 24% of its shares in the IPO, potentially valuing it at AED 3.24 bn on the Dubai bourse back in April 2021, but pulled back due to a lack of investor demand.

Syria to set up two freezones + dry port in Idlib

Syria’s General Authority for Land and Sea Ports (GALSP) broke ground on a new freezone project in its Turkey-bordering northwestern governorate Idlib, according to a statement published Saturday. The new freezone — expected to span around 1.1 mn sqm — will include a dry port, as well as specialized commercial and industrial zones. No timeline or investment ticket have been disclosed.

The rationale: The project — which comes amid a Syrian push to attract foreign direct investments in the post-war economy — is set to facilitate access to foreign markets for Idlib’s agricultural and industrial players. The move will also allow local businesses to import raw materials without relying on seaports— trimming costs and saving time, the statement said.

Plus an automotives-focused freezone: The Syrian government has also lined up another freezone project that will focus on car trade and the automotive industry.

REMEMBER- Foreign investors are interested in Syria’s zones: French maritime giant CMA CGM signed on last month to develop and operate dry ports in both the Syrian-Jordanian Joint Freezone and the freezone in Adra, near Damascus. China’s Fidi Contracting also inked an MoU late last month with GALSP to invest in the freezone in Homs’ Hasiya, as well as the freezone in Adra in Damascus. This followed a deluge of investment and operational contracts inked for the Syrian-Jordanian Joint Freezone for the year as of last April, with more than 800 investors reportedly signed up.

ALSO- GALSP has reopened the Al Bukamal border crossing with Iraq, enabling passenger and truck traffic effective 14 June, according to a statement released on Thursday.

Updates on shipping, diplomacy, and trade from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Bahrain, and Jordan

SHIPPING + MARITIME-

#1- Asry taps AD Ports for Bahrain maritime build: AD Ports Group has inked three heads of terms (HoTs) with Bahrain-based Arab Shipbuilding and Repair Yard Company (ASRY) to spearhead marine services in Bahrain across maritime and port projects, according to a statement. The three HoTs include establishing a joint venture (JV) to manage drydock facilities and shipyards, an agreement with India-based maritime service provider JM Baxi to develop green ship recycling facilities, and a final HoT to develop a working group for investments across ports and terminals.

REFRESHER- A D Port’s subsidiary Noatum Maritime and Asry formed a JV — dubbed ASRY Marine — to offer integrated maritime services in Bahrain. The JV — first announced in February and activated in April — aims to deliver integrated marine services in Bahrain and marked its operational start with the arrival of four modern tugboats from Noatum Maritime’s fleet at ASRY’s headquarters.

#2- The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) has added MSC’s Chinook Clanga shipping service to King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam and Jubail Commercial Port, according to a statement. The new 14k TEUs service will connect the two ports to 16 major regional and global ports, including Khalifa Bin Salman in Bahrain, Hamad in Qatar, Nhava Sheva in India, Colombo in Sri Lanka, Port of Singapore, Vung Tau and Haiphong ports in Vietnam, Nansha, Yantian, Ningbo, Shanghai and Qingdao ports in China, Busan in South Korea, Seattle in the US, and Vancouver and Prince Rupert ports in Canada.

ALSO- Mawani added MSC’s Himalaya Express shippingservice to King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam and Jubail Commercial Port, according to a statement released last Thursday. The new service — with a capacity of 14k TEUs — will connect the two ports with 12 regional and international ports, including Jebel Ali and Abu Dhabi in the UAE, Hamad in Qatar, Nhava Sheva, Mundra, and Vizhinjam in India, Sines in Portugal, Valencia, Barcelona, and Malaga in Spain, and Gioia Tauro and Genoa in Italy

DIPLOMACY-

Iran + Kazakhstan ink trade, logistics agreements: Iran and Kazakhstan have inked several agreements to facilitate trade and increase bilateral cooperation, Tehran News reports. The agreements include forming a joint investment working group to establish trade centers — allocating 15 hectares in Iran’s Shahid Rajaee Port to Kazakhstan for a transit terminal — and signing a mutual recognition agreement for authorized economic operators to expedite customs operations.

ALSO- The two parties discussed the potential for direct flights and are set to meet in 3Q 2025 to discuss oil, gas refineries, and petrochemicals in a bid to resume bilateral oil swaps.

TRADE-

#1- Saudi Exim + Credit Oman sign export agreement: The Saudi Export-Import Bank signed an MoU with Credit Oman during the TXF Global 2025 conference in Copenhagen from 10 to 12 June to boost cooperation on joint export projects and share expertise, state news agency SPA reported on Friday. The agreement aims to support Saudi non-oil exports and strengthen trade ties between the two countries.

#2- Jordan has submitted an international tender to acquire up to 120k metric tons of milling wheat from optional sources, Zaywa reported on Thursday, citing Reuters. The country reportedly issued another tender for 120k metric tons of animal feed barley. Wheat shipments will be sent out in batches of 50k-60k tons between 1-15 September, 16-30 September, 1-15 October, and 16-31 October.

ICYMI- Jordan purchased nearly 60k tons of wheat in an international tender in January. The country bought the grain from trading house CHS at an estimated price of USD 267 a ton — including cost and freight — and was slated for shipment during the second half of March.

What the US-UK trade agreement tells us about trade negotiations to come

What can we learn from the US-UK trade agreement? The US’ limited bilateral trade agreement with the UK — inked in May — could provide other nations a glimpse at how Washington might approach future trade negotiations. The non-binding agreement — which notably keeps tariffs on UK goods at 10% (down from the Liberation Day’s rate of 27.5%) — suggests that negotiators should expect continued unpredictability and trade barriers, along with some willingness for some concessions, according to a recently published report by Fitch Solutions’ research subsidiary BMI.

Washington was willing to concede on its harsher points: The agreement highlighted the Trump administration’s willingness to back down on some of its more radical positions — which supported earlier speculations that they were used as a negotiating tool, according to BMI report. For example, the US granted preferential access to UK steel and aluminum exports — voiding previous predictions that Washington would preserve the Section 232 tariffs applied on strategic goods.

REFRESHER- What did the UK get? The US agreed to give the UK preferential treatment in cases of new US tariff schemes, such as those imposed under probes conducted for national security threats — including the ongoing probes on pharma and semiconductors. British airplane parts entering the US will also be exempt from tariffs, including Rolls-Royce engines and other similar parts. Auto imports were also a key part of the agreement, with the US agreeing on an adjusted rate will be applied to the first 100k units of imported British vehicles.

A new (ab)normal: The US’ average weighted tariff has increased to its highest rate since around 1936, which is expected to primarily impact manufacturing-focused economies in Asia. As per this agreement, tariffs imposed on UK imports entering the US remain around 10 times higher than just a year ago — also nearly 11 to 15 times higher than the UK’s own tariffs on incoming American goods.

Unpredictability’s here to stay: The non-binding nature of the agreement also indicates a progressively unpredictable and unstable global trade environment. This means the agreement will not be ratified by UK or US legislatures, which opens the door for frequent renegotiations and enforceability issues.

What now? The agreement could be bad or good news depending on where you stand with the US. The UK benefited from a relative advantage due to its close security alliance and a relative lack of direct competition with the US, but for competitive trade partners now in negotiations with the US — such as Vietnam, the EU, and Japan, an agreement is forecasted to be less favorable.

Adani Group announces intent to IPO Adani Airports by 2027

Indian conglomerate Adani Group is planning on publicly listing its airport unit Adani Airports by March 2027, unnamed firm executives told Bloomberg on Thursday. This listing comes as Adani Group looks to mobilize financing for its planned USD 100 bn investment push across energy, logistics, and infrastructure within the next five to six years.

ICYMI- Adani Airports was reported in April to be in talks with First Abu Dhabi Bank and other international lenders over a USD 750 mn loan to support capital expenditure and the refinancing of upcoming debt maturities

All of the 53 African nations China has diplomatic relations with will get tariff-free access to the world's second most populous market under a new pact soon to be negotiated and signed, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said last week at the opening of the China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo. The scrapping of tariffs across the whole continent extends its existing policy for least-developed countries to include middle-income nations, while adding additional support to least-developed countries.

China’s approach to tariffs in Africa is in stark contrast to its geopolitical rival America, with some countries like Lesotho facing tariffs as high as 50%, prominent economies like South Africa facing 30% tariffs, and the lucky few like Egypt with a more accommodating 10% tariff under the Trump administration’s new global tariff regime.

Calendar

JUNE

16-22 June (Monday-Sunday): International Paris Air Show, Paris, France.

11-13 June (Wednesday-Friday): Sustainability World Summit, Frankfurt, Germany.

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit, Abu Dhabi Energy Centre.

17-19 June (Tuesday-Thursday): Terminal Operations Conference & Exhibition, Rotterdam, Netherlands.

18-19 June (Wednesday-Thursday): Eurasia Rail, Istanbul, Turkey.

18-27 June ( Wednesday-Friday): The International Maritime Organization’s Maritime Safety Committee meeting, London, UK.

19 June (Thursday): East Med Maritime Conference, Athens, Greece.

24-25 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Middle East Rail, Dubai World Trade Center.

25-26 June (Wednesday-Thursday): Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, Hamburg, Germany.

JULY

1-3 July (Tuesday-Thursday): ASEAN Ports and Logistics, Jakarta, Indonesia.

22-24 July (Tuesday-Thursday): Intermodal Africa, Beira, Mozambique.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Monday-Wednesday): Transport Middle East 2025, Salalah, Oman.

3-4 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Sustainable Maritime Industry Conference, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

4-10 September (Thursday-Wednesday): Intra-African Trade Fair, Algiers, Algeria.

7-10 September (Sunday-Wednesday): Comex Global Technology Show, Muscat, Oman.

24-26 September (Wednesday-Friday): Routes World, Hong Kong.

25 September (Thursday): World Maritime Day 2025.

30 September - 2 October (Monday-Thursday): Global Rail Transport Infrastructure Exhibition and Conference, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

OCTOBER

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is set to formally adopt the Net-zero Framework this month, stipulating new fuel standards for ships and a global pricing mechanism for emissions.

1-2 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Saudi Maritime & Logistics Congress, Dammam, Saudi Arabia.

7-8 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global EV & Mobility Technology (GEMTECH) Forum, Riyadh.

13 - 17 October (Monday-Friday): The Marine Environment Protection Committee’s second extraordinary session, London, UK.

14-15 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Investing in Africa Conference and Expo, London, UK.

28-30 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Borneo International Maritime Week, Sarawak, Malaysia.

NOVEMBER

3-6 November (Monday-Thursday): ADIPEC Maritime and Logistics Exhibition and Conference, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

4-6 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Air Cargo Forum, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

17-21 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Airshow, Dubai, UAE.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday) The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Mid-2025: Iraq will complete phase one of the construction of the Grand Faw Port.

DHL and Aramco’s logistics and procurement hub in Saudi Arabia will commence operations.

AD Ports-operated Safaga Port’s multi-purpose terminal will become operational.

Phase 3 of APM Terminals Tangier MedPort to be complete and operational.

1Q 2025: Sadr Park’s Logistics Center in Riyadh to be completed.

1Q 2025: Phase two of Jafza Logistics Park to be completed.

2026

27-29 January (Tuesday-Thursday) Transport Middle East 2026, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

28-30 April (Tuesday-Thursday) Mediterranean Ports and Logistics, Porto, Portugal.

24-26 June (Wednesday-Friday) Transport Logistic & Air Cargo 2026, Shanghai, China.

7-9 July (Tuesday-Thursday) Asean Ports and Logistics, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

17-19 November (Tuesday-Thursday) Intermodal Africa 2026, Luanda, Angola.

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.

2027

4Q 2027: Oman’s Musandam Airport construction to be completed.

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