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Red Sea disruptions are having a spillover effect on Asian fuel markets

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What we're tracking today

TODAY: More Red Sea diversions + Hello, Noatum Logistics Middle East

Good morning, nice people. We have a brisk issue this morning with all the latest from the Red Sea and a smattering of regional updates across the sector.


PSA-

KSA’s Transport General Authority (TGA) is set to roll out automated surveillance to log violations by trucks and buses, starting 21 April in several regions throughout the kingdom, according to a statement. Vehicles under surveillance will include cargo trucks and rental trucks, among other heavy vehicles, the statement said. Violations monitored will include trucks operating without licensing cards or using expired cards.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Maritime emissions are estimated to surge 44% by 2050 if efforts to curb emissions are not put in place,according to management consulting firm Arthur D. Little’s insight report. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions attributed to the global maritime fleet saw a 23% increase between 2012 and 2022, and increased another 4.7% between 2020 and 2021, the report said citing global forecasts. Strict regulations and mandates for the use of renewable fuels are boosting sustainability in maritime operations in the EU and other areas. The report emphasizes the need for stakeholders in the industry to adhere to more stringent sustainability requirements and develop an “ecosystem” based approach that sees ports and operators contributing to emissions cutbacks.

What they said: “By adopting a collaborative and ecosystem-based approach and recognizing the indispensable role of ports and maritime operators, we can chart a course towards a sustainable future for the blue economy,” Arthur D little Partner Carlo Carlomagno said in statements cited by a press release.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- A slow start of the year for OPEC+ oil cuts: Steady oil exports by OPEC+ members in January are indicating that voluntary output cuts are taking their time to kick in, Bloomberg reported, citing data from Vienna-based market intelligence firm Kpler. Exports from several members involved in the cuts have totalled c. 15.4 mn barrels a day so far in January, a figure that is unchanged from a month earlier, according to the firm. Overall exports from the group barely changed at c. 28.1 mn bpd.

#2- Oil prices dropped on Sunday due to several factors including challenges in China’s property sector as well as the recent drone attack on US forces in Jordan, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures dipped to USD 83.32 and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped to USD 77.74. China Evergrande Group's liquidation order also added worries about crude demand, and ongoing tensions in the Red Sea have fueled worries of potential supply disruptions.

#3- Business groups from the US, Europe and Japan are urging the Biden administration to reconsider a pause on licenses for new LNG exporters, Bloomberg reported. More LNG supplies will be needed to meet a forecasted rise in LNG demand well into the next decade, and this can be managed in a manner that does not hamper emissions reductions, the US Chamber of Commerce, BusinessEurope, and Japan's Keidanren said in a joint letter to Biden.

Background: The US administration froze licensing for new LNG export facilities earlier this week, citing environmental concerns. 2023 saw the US become the world’s leading LNG exporter, overtaking Qatar and Australia, as boosted demand from the EU, due to the bloc looking to switch out Russian supplies, saw the country’s LNG exports surge.

#4- Asia’s LSFO market is set to remain “lackluster” in 2024, as high regional stocks and competition from cheaper HSFO dent demand, S&P Global reports. Kuwait’s new Al Zour refinery is expected to have less of an effect on Asian’s LSFO stocks than was previously anticipated, however new exports from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery may lead to a glut in LSFO fuel stocks in Asia, S&P said citing analysts and trade sources. Sales of the IMO-compliant grade at the world’s largest bunkering hub in Singapore increased 3.6% y-o-y to 31.2 mn metric tons in 2023. LSFO’s share of overall bunker sales at Singapore dipped from 62.9% in 2022 to 60.2% in 2023, S&P Global said, citing the most recent data from the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore.

DATA POINTS-

#1-The UAE was MENA’s fourth-largest LNG exporter in 2023: The Emirates exported nearly 5 mn tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2023, making it the fourth-biggest LNG exporter in the MENA region despite volumes dipping 6.6% y-o-y, according to the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OAPEC) annual report. Most of the LNG went to buyers in Asia, including India, South Korea, Japan and China.

#2- Kuwait International Airport saw cargo traffic volumes reach 210 mn kg in 2023, with inbound cargo amounting to 170 mn kg and outbound cargo 40.3 mn kg, Kuna reports, citing the national Directorate General of Civil Aviation’s acting Director-General Emad Al-Jalawai. The number of flights transiting the airport increased by 23% y-o-y, reaching 128.6k, compared to 104k the prior year. Passenger transit was up by 26% y-o-y, reaching 15.6 mn passengers in 2023.

#3- Qatar’s merchandise trade surplus dropped 33.7% y-o-y to QAR 18.7 bn (USD 5.1 bn) in December 2023, according to data from the national Planning and Statistics Authority. The country’s merchandise exports declined 23.7% over the same period to around QAR 29.2 bn, while imports boosted 4.2% y-o-y to QAR 10.5 bn. The decline in exports was mainly attributable to a 31.1% y-o-y drop in petroleum gasses and gaseous hydrocarbon exports, including LNG, which dropped to next to QAR 18.1 bn, compared to 26.2 bn the previous year, the report said.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host the Middle East Bunkering Convention from Monday, 5 February through to Wednesday, 7 February in Dubai. The event will bring together industry experts to tap into issues affecting the global marine fuel sector, including supply chains, decarbonization, and new fuels.

Holland will host theCargo Facts EMEA from Monday, 5 February through to Wednesday, 7 February in Amsterdam. The event will bring together air freight industry leaders from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa to discuss the latest trends, forecasts, and technological innovations.

The UAE will host Sustainable Aviation Futures MENA from Monday, 12 February through to Wednesday, 14 February in Dubai. The event will see 80 expert speakers and upwards of 200 high level attendants and will handle topics pertaining to regulation, financing, and investments in Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) in MENA.

The UAE will host the Future Warehouse & Logistics Conference from Monday, 12 February to Wednesday, 14 February in Dubai. The event will handle means for supply chain leaders to boost resilience and overcome challenges, with discussions on disruptions, sustainability, Internet of Things (IoT), automation, workplace management and other topics.

The UAE will host theTradeTech Forum on Tuesday, 27 February in Abu Dhabi. The forum will see some 180 trade leaders and experts discuss the technologically advanced trade environment and a showcase of trade tech solutions.

The UAE will host The Logistics Middle East Award on Wednesday, 6 March in Dubai. The awards ceremony brings together industry experts to celebrate the sector’s biggest accomplishments over the previous 12 months.The deadline for submitting nominations is Friday, 19 January.

KSA will host a special World Economic Forum event from Sunday, 28 April through to Monday, 29 April in Riyadh. The event will focus on global collaboration and energy.

The UAE will host The Electric Vehicle Innovation Summit from Monday, 20 May to Wednesday, 22 May in Abu Dhabi. The event will see industry leaders come together to discuss sustainable mobility and tapping into groundbreaking advancements in electric vehicles while engaging with key decision-makers.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

This publication is proudly sponsored by

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Disruption Watch

Red Sea disruptions are having a spillover effect on Asian fuel markets

Two vessels transporting oil from Kuwait to Europe have diverted away from the Red Sea,Bloomberg reports. Both vessels had signaled Suez as their next stop over the weekend, but diverted following an attack on a Trafigura-operated tanker that saw the ship set ablaze. Despite the risks, KSA oil giant Aramco and other tanker operators — particularly those carrying Russian cargoes — are still navigating the Red Sea route. Six vessels carrying crude and other fuels transited into the Red Sea on Sunday, Bloomberg writes, citing tracking data.

Red Sea disruptions are having a spillover effect on Asian fuel markets, boosting fuel rates for long distance and intra-Asia routes, Bloomberg reports. Disruptions to routes have seen demand for clean tankers and dirty tankers hike 3% and 1%, the analyst said. Costs for shipping 35k tons of fuel from South Korea to Singapore have increased some 50% to USD 49k per day, over the last week — their highest since 2022 —Bloomberg writes, citing Baltic Exchange data. Rates for larger tankers shipping cargoes from the Middle East to Japan are also at their highest since 2020. Fuel suppliers are nonetheless rolling out discounts for freight carriers in order to offset higher freight rate costs for consumers and maintain interest in the market.

Inflationary impacts due to Houthi-led attacks against commercial shipping are “relatively muted,” Bloomberg reports, citing an interview withUS President Joe Biden’s energy security adviser Amos Hochstein on CBS’s Face of the Nation (watch, runtime: 06:26). Inflationary effects due to the disruptions have affected logistics more than energy markets, Hochstein said. Oil prices are lower today than on 7 October, when Hamas’ attack against Israel triggered the ongoing Hamas-Israel war and subsequent Houthi-led attacks against shipping in the Red Sea, Bloomberg writes.

Oman’s ports are supporting carriers rerouting due to Red Sea disruptions via three main axes,leveraging the country’s strategic position along international trade routes, Oman’s Asyad Ports Company CEO Ahmed Al Abri told Al Arabiya Business. The first method sees carriers unloading their cargoes at Oman’s Duqm Port before being picked up by vessels still choosing to transit the Red Sea. Another avenue sees cargoes unloaded at Duqm then transported to Red Sea ports by Asyad-operated vessels and feeder companies. A third method sees shipments unloaded at Duqm then transferred via a land bridge to GCC countries.

Ships arriving at Barcelona Port are seeing delays of 10 to 15 days due to diversions, Reuters reports, citing a statement by Barcelona port chief Lluis Salvado to reporters. The delays are impacing ships carrying all types of cargo, including liquified natural gas (LNG), with the port hosting one of the largest LNG terminals in Spain, the newswire said. Despite the delays Barcelona is less affected than ports in the Eastern Mediterranean due to it being closer to the reshuffled routes, Salvado was also cited as saying.

IN DEFENSE NEWS-Denmark has dispatched a frigate, dubbed Ivar Huitfeldt, to take part in US-led Operation Prosperity Guardian countering Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, Reuters reports. The warship’s operations in the region are still pending Danish Parliamentary approval which is expected by 6 February, the newswire wrote. The Ivar Huitfeldt will not contribute to offensive raids against the Houthis and despite being equipped with surface to air systems and it cannot defend itself or neighboring vessels from attacks employing ballistic missiles, the newswire cites head of the Danish Navy Command Henrik Ryberg as saying.

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Logistics Handling

AD Ports’ Noatum Logistics launches its Middle East brand

Noatum Logisticshas rebranded AD Ports’ freight-forwarding arm Micco Logistics to Noatum Logistics Middle East,according to a statement. Noatum Logistics Middle East will now handle Micco’s operations as the freight forwarder for upwards of 80% of Abu Dhabi’s oil, gas, and petrochemical projects via a 400 vehicle fleet.

What we know: Noatum Logistics Middle East will absorb Micco’s regional clients and stakeholders and leverage Noatum’s scale, agility, experience, portfolio of terminal operations, maritime shipping, and logistics businesses, the statement notes. Clients and stakeholders will benefit from Noatum’s 16 terminals, presence at 67 ports, 143 global offices, and 4.2k professional staff covering operations at 27 countries linked to global markets and trade routes.

Background: AD Ports fully acquired Spanish logistics outfit Noatum in July2023, with the subsidiary since leading AD Ports Group’s logistics cluster. Noatum has served as a growth vehicle for AD Ports, acquiring Sesé Auto Logistics in October, and APM Terminals Castellón earlier this month. Noatum also inked an agreement with NWTN Motors in October 2023 to develop a logistics hub for electric vehicles in Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi.

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Data Centers

Oman’s Sohar Port and Freezone inks land agreement for USD 210 mn data center

Oman’s Sohar Port and Freezone has inked a land lease agreement with Oman-based Green Data City (GDC) for a data computing center worth some USD 210 mn, according to a press release. The project will provide infrastructure for hosting, storing, processing, and mining data, and comes in a bid to diversify the national economy and boost digitalization, the statement said.

The details: The project will cover some 45k square meters (sqm) and is set to provide 20k servers that will be hosted in 40-foot containers. Sustainable cooling will be provided via immersion and hydrosystems with dry coolers, providing infrastructure for storing, processing, and managing data, the statement said. A timeline for the project was not disclosed.

About GDC: The outfit holds the first license for sustainable crypto-mining in Oman, enabling industrial mining players to register with the company and operate in its developments. GDC’s first development will see 200 MW of mining capacity, with a second phase ramping up to 400 MW, according to the company’s website.

ICYMI- Sohar Port and Freezone inked three agreements earlier this month to boost its marine services, and enhance In-Country Value while supporting local companies. The agreements covered vessel tank cleaning services, bunkering services, and medical services.

About Sohar Port and Freezone: The facility is a deep-sea port and freezone that is managed by Sohar Industrial Port company, a 50:50 joint venture by the Port of Rotterdam and Oman, according to its website. The port can handle the world’s largest vessels and has container, dry bulk, liquid, gas and general cargo terminals that are operated by leading global players. The adjoining 4.5k hectares Freezone has attracted investments worth USD 27 bn, with plans underway for phase 2 of developments at the freezone.

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Startup Watch

Egypt’s logistics startup Roboost closes USD 3 mn investment round

Egypt-based AI-driven delivery startup Roboost has secured USD 3 mn in an investment round led by Silicon Badia, according to a press release (pdf). RZM Investment, Flat6Labs, and Saudi Angel Investors also participated in the round. The company will use the investment to drive its expansion across MENA, the statement said.

Where will the money go? The startup has seen a 400% y-o-y growth in revenues and plans to use the new funding to “carry over this accomplishment across the MENA region‘s entire delivery market,” the statement said. Raised funds will also go towards developing the outfit’s e-commerce and middle-mile products with new tailored automated solutions, the statement said.

About Roboost: Established in 2020 by Mohamed Gessraha (LinkedIn), Hassan Gessraha (LinkedIn) and Mohamed Ali Sadek (LinkedIn), the startup leverages AI to automate the last-mile delivery cycle by offering services like auto-dispatching, smart routes for delivery drivers, and fraud control. Roboost’s system currently caters to 15k delivery drivers, serving nearly 10 mn unique customers and automating over 40 mn orders. Roboost’s SaaS solution has helped fully automate deliveries for brands including McDonald’s, Buffalo Burger, El Ezaby Pharmacies, and Jumlaty, across markets in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Morocco, and Tunisia.

ICYMI – October 2023 saw Roboost partner up with Mcdonald’s Egypt to help the franchise fully automate its last-mile delivery operations and boost visibility in the delivery cycle.

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Earnings Watch

Nakilat sees an 8.3% y-o-y boost in bottomline to QAR 1.6 bn

Qatari shipping and maritime company Nakilat saw a bottomline uptick of 8.3% y-o-y to QAR 1.6 bnin 2023, compared to QAR 1.4 bn the previous year, according to a press release. The company also saw its topline increase 5.7% during the same period to QAR 4.7 bn.

Driving growth during 2023: The company attributes the boost in earnings to efficiencies in operations and management, particularly the company’s ability to circumvent challenges in the market over the previous year. The challenges were driven by geopolitical turmoil in the region but the company has remained “agile in the face of uncertainties”, BOD Chairman Abdulaziz Jassim Al-Muftah said.

ICYMI- Nakilat made an order for six advanced gas vessels from Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries earlier in the month. The order is scheduled for delivery between 2026 and 2027 and will boost the company’s LNG fleet to 71 ships and its LPG fleet to eight.

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Diplomacy

Iraq talks with potential investors and Iran + Uzbekistan ink trade agreement

Romania wants in on Iraq’s Development Road project:Romania’s Transport Ministry plans to contribute to Iraq’s on Road Development project, according to a statement released following a meeting between Iraqi Railways General Manager Younis Khaled Gawad and Romanian Ambassador to Iraq Rado Dubri. The two sides discussed strengthening relations, especially in the transport sector. Iraq’s Development Road project aims to create a Europea-Asia trade corridor and reduce the cost of transporting goods. The nature of Romania’s involvement in the project has not been revealed.

ALSO- Iraq is courting Spanish companies: Iraq’s Transport Minister Razzaq Al-Saadawi met with Spanish Ambassador to Iraq Pedro Martinez to discuss Iraq’s efforts to develop its transport sector, according to a statement. The Iraqi minister expressed his country’s desire to cooperate with Spanish companies in rail, high-speed train manufacturing, and maritime services. Al-Saadawi briefed Martinez on Iraq’s plans for developing rail, land and air transport and the pair discussed ways for Iraq’s carrier Fly Baghdad to resume operations in Europe.

REMEMBER-In December, the EU’s Aviation Safety Agency banned Fly Baghdad from operating in EU airspace over its failure to “meet international safety standards,” a statement said, without providing further details.


Iran + Uzbekistan sign key agreements: Iran and Uzbekistan inked a preferential trade agreement (FTA) during a visit to Uzbekistan by Iranian Trade Minister Abbas Aliabadi, IRNA reports, citing deputy director of International Business Promotion of Iran Trade Promotion Organization (TPO) Mohammad-Sadegh Ghanadzadeh. Both countries’ central banks agreed to launch a banking exchange mechanism and facilitate technical talks between commercial banks. The two parties also signed agreements for Iran to refurbish gas turbines as well as build a regional service center for the maintenance of oil, refinery, and power plant equipment in Uzbekistan.

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Also on Our Radar

DAE + Turkish Airlines ink agreement to lease 10 Boeing 737-8 aircraft, Qatar Energy + Excelerate Energy also sign a long term LNG agreement

AVIATION-

Turkish Airlines has signed an agreement with Dubai Aerospace Enterprise (DAE) to lease ten Boeing 737-8 aircraftslated for delivery in 2025, according to a statement. “We are delighted to further deepen our already strong and long-term relationship with Turkish Airlines and to provide them a solution to their growing fleet requirements with these new technology, fuel efficient aircraft,” DAE CEO Firoz Tarapore said in the statement.

SHIPPING + MARITIME-

Qatar Energy and US-based Excelerate Energy have signed a long-term agreement to supply Bangladesh with LNG, according to a statement. The 15-year agreement will see Excelerate purchase up to 1 mn tons annually and deliver it to storage and regasification units in Bangladesh. The agreement is in line with Qatar’s goal of becoming South Asia’s top LNG supplier.

OTHER STORIES WORTH KNOWING THIS MORNING-

  • Air Arabia flying to Poland: The UAE’s Air Arabia is launching direct flights from Sharjah International Airport to John Paul International Airport in Krakow, Poland starting 29 June 2024. (Statement)

FEBRUARY

5-7 February (Monday-Wednesday): Middle East Bunkering Convention, Dubai, UAE.

5-7 February (Monday-Wednesday): Cargo Facts EMEA 2024, Amsterdam, Netherlands.

6-7 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): The Middle East ProcureTech Summit, Dubai, UAE.

12-13 February (Monday-Tuesday): Breakbulk Middle East conference, Dubai, UAE.

12-14 February (Monday-Wednesday): Sustainable Aviation Futures MENA, Dubai, UAE.

12-15 February (Monday-Thursday): Future Warehouse & Logistics, Dubai, UAE.

12-15 February (Monday-Thursday): African Air Expo, Cape Town, South Africa.

22-24 February (Thursday-Saturday): International Freight Forwarders Conference, Dubai, UAE.

26-29 February (Monday-Thursday): World Trade Organization's 13th Ministerial Conference, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

27 February (Tuesday) :TradeTech Forum, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

28 February (Wednesday): Industrial and Building Technology event, Dubai, UAE.

28 February-1 March (Wednesday-Friday): MENA Transport Congress and Exhibition, Dubai, UAE.

MARCH

3-5 March (Sunday-Tuesday): Sustainable Green Blue Infrastructure Conference 2024 (Marlog), Green Plaza Mall, Egypt.

4-8 March (Monday-Friday): Logistics & Transport Management 2024, Dubai, UAE.

5-6 March (Tuesday-Wednesday): ShipTek International Conference & Awards 2024, The Address Dubai, UAE.

5-6 March (Tuesday-Wednesday): MRO Middle East, Dubai Trade Center, Dubai, UAE.

6 March (Wednesday):The Gulf Ship Finance Forum, Waldorf Astoria Dubai International Financial Centre, UAE.

6 March (Wednesday): The Logistics Middle East Awards, Dubai, UAE.

7 March (Thursday): Truck and Fleet Conference 2024, Dubai, UAE.

12-14 March (Tuesday- Thursday): IATA World Cargo Symposium, Hong Kong International Airport, Hong Kong.

20 March (Wednesday): Construction work scheduled to begin on the 162 km Rasht-Astara Railway in Iran.

APRIL

27 April- 1 May (Saturday-Wednesday): Iran Expo 2024, Tehran International Permanent Fairground, Iran.

28 April - 29 April (Sunday - Monday): World Economic Forum, Riyadh, KSA.

29 April- 2 May(Monday-Thursday): GLA Global Logistics Conference, Dubai, UAE.

30 April- 2 May(Tuesday-Thursday): Autonomous E-mobility Forum, Doha, Qatar.

April: Driftx. Abu Dhabi, UAE.

MAY

2-3 May (Thursday-Friday): Geneva Dry, Hotel President Wilson, Geneva, Switzerland.

2-4 May(Thursday-Saturday): The International Conference on Logistics Operations Management: smart, sustainable and green logistics (GOL), Marrakesh, Morocco.

3-5 May (Friday-Sunday):2024 IEEE 15th international conference on Logistics and Supply Chain Management, University of Sousse, Tunisia, Tunis.

7-9 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Annual Investment Meeting (AIM) Congress, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

14-15 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Seamless Middle East, Dubai World Trade Centre, UAE.

14-16 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Airport Show, DWTC, Dubai, UAE.

20-22 May (Monday-Wednesday): The Electric Vehicle Innovation Summit (EVIS), Abu Dhabi, UAE.

21-23 May (Tuesday-Thursday): WAGA 2024, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

JUNE

2-4 June (Sunday-Tuesday):IATA Annual General Meeting (AGM) and World Air Transport Summit, Dubai, UAE.

19-21 June (Wednesday-Friday): World Freezones Organization’s Annual International Conference and Exhibition, Bari, Italy.

OCTOBER

6-8 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Routes World 2024, Bahrain.

7-9 October (Monday-Wednesday): AFSIC – Investing in Africa, London.

22-24 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Asean Ports and Logistics 2024, Johor, Malaysia.

NOVEMBER

11-14 November (Sunday-Thursday): ADIPEC Maritime and Logistics Exhibition and Conference, Abu Dhabi.

13-15 November (Wednesday-Friday): The Bahrain International Airshow, Sakhir Airbase, Bahrain.

DECEMBER

10-12 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East Business Aviation, Dubai World Central, Dubai, UAE.

20 December (Wednesday): The 5th Iran-Senegal Joint Economic Cooperation Commission, Dakar.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

1Q 2024: Construction of phase 3 of Agility’s logistic park in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire to be completed.

1Q 2024: Egypt’s Transport Ministry to launch pre-qualification tender for Cairo-Alex freight railway.

1H 2024: Civil Construction subcontracts for construction firms in Oman for implementation of the Abu Dhabi - Suhar rail link to be announced.

2H 2024: Bahri’s barges for Saline Water Conversion Corporation (SWCC) to begin initial and commercial operation.

King Salman Energy Park is set to become operational.

2025

Mid-2025: Iraq will complete phase one of the construction of the Grand Faw Port.

DHL and Aramco’s logistics and procurement hub in Saudi Arabia will commence operations.

AD Ports-operated Safaga Port’s multi-purpose terminal will become operational.

Phase 3 of APM Terminals Tangier MedPort to be complete and operational.

1Q 2025: Sadr Park’s Logistics Center in Riyadh to be completed.

1Q 2025: Phase twoof Jafza Logistics Park to be completed.

2027

4Q 2027: Oman’s Musandam Airport construction to be completed.

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