Good morning, folks. We have another packed issue for you this morning as we get closer to the weekend. Investment and IPO updates take the lead this morning, as Qatar joins the race for AI hyperscaler infrastructure projects with a new JV with Brookfield and the kick-off of CGS trading on Tadawul. We also sat down with Ahmad Amawi, the head of the Egyptian Customs Authority, to discuss the latest reforms and the overall trade movement in the country.
BUT FIRST- A look into the Trump administration’s surprise decision to allow exports of advanced chips to China…
THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY- Trump clears path for Nvidia chip exports to China: The Trump administration will allow Nvidia to sell its advanced H200 AI chips to approved customers in China, easing export restrictions imposed during the Biden administration. Under the new deal, the US government will take a 25% cut of proceeds — up from 15% in a prior agreement — with similar arrangements expected for AMD and Intel.
The decision follows months of lobbying by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who pledged USD 500 bn in US AI investments. The move has drawn criticism from lawmakers, who warned it could aid China’s military and surveillance capabilities.
BUT- It’s not clear whether this is a welcome decision for China, with reports suggesting the country’s regulators are planning to limit imports of the advanced AI chips. Any import limitations would come on top of the government orders from September requiring to Chinese tech companies to halt imports of Nvidia microchips, including the RTX Pro 6000D and the less advanced H20 chips.
The story received a lot of attention in the int’l press: Reuters | Associated Press | Bloomberg | Financial Times | CNBC | New York Times | BBC | Guardian |
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- Shell secures offtake from Green Sky Capital’s planned SAF facility in Egypt: Shell Aviation has signed a long-term offtake agreement with Green Sky Capital to buy all output from its commercial-scale sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant in Egypt, according to a statement. The agreement is set to add the needed “commercial certainty” for investors to reach a final investment decision on the project — which is planned to produce up to 145k tons of SAF annually, along with bionaphtha and biopropane.
What we know: While labeled as the first commercial-scale SAF plant in Egypt, the project seems to be different from the state’s planned USD 530 mn SAF production complex in Alexandria and will be located in the Suez Canal Economic Zone, according to Green Sky Capital. Operations are set to begin in late 2027, with some 500k tons of carbon dioxide emissions expected to be offset annually. No further details were disclosed.
REMEMBER- Europe is leading the global push for SAF: The UK and the EU issued mandates earlier this year requiring 2% of all jet fuel demand to be SAF starting in 2025. The UK aims to increase this rate to 10% by 2030 and 22% by 2040, whereas the EU is aiming for a 70% target by 2050.
IN OTHER EGYPT UPDATES- The gov’t will establish a freight terminal at Qous Station on the country’s high-speed rail line to serve the Qena Industrial Zone, according to a statement. The terminal is part of the 1.1k km October-Aswan high-speed electric rail project and is designed to boost logistics and goods movement across Upper Egypt.
Some context: Plans to establish Egypt’s first high-speed rail link between Cairo and Upper Egypt were laid back in 2022, with Siemens Mobility, Orascom Construction, and Arab Contractors signing on. The second and third lines of the network will connect 6th of October City with Aswan, and Luxor to Hurghada via Qena and Safaga. In addition to passengers, the project will reportedly be used to transport cargo between logistics zones and seaports.
#2- Could Egypt-Israel USD 35 bn gas export agreement finally see the light? Israel has reportedly reached a final agreement with the Leviathan partners regarding our gas export pact, following all-night negotiations between the partners and the Israeli Energy Ministry, according to Israeli outlet Globes. The agreement — set to be greenlit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin within days — would see the partners commit to a specified price and prioritize deliveries to the Israeli market in the event of supply disruptions at other gas fields, Globes reports.
What this means: Israeli flows could continue to be unpredictable as supplies from Leviathan and other fields have been halted multiple times over the past period due to operational pauses, maintenance, and military strikes, meaning exports to Egypt can be interrupted with little notice whenever Israel diverts gas back to its domestic grid.
Under US pressure: Netanyahu pushed to finalize the agreement ahead of his meeting with US President Donald Trump on 29 December, as Washington has been closely involved in resolving the months-long deadlock, Globes said. This also came as the US administration has signaled support for Chevron, which has a 39.66% operating stake in Leviathan.
The future of the agreement has been uncertain for a while now: We reported earlier this week that the agreement will remain in limbo for another month after the Leviathan partners pushed their deadline to obtain an export permit from Israel’s Energy Ministry to 31 December. Israel hit a pause on it in November “until its interests are secured and a fair price for the Israeli [gas] market is agreed upon,” shortly after Netanyahu froze the agreement amid rising Israeli-Egyptian tensions.
DISRUPTION WATCH-
IndiGo will trim planned flights by 5% in response to directives from India’s civil aviation regulator, which came after widespread disruption to its schedule since 1 December, Reuters reports. The directive requires the airline to submit a revised schedule to the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) on Wednesday, with cuts to be applied across sectors, particularly on high-demand, high-frequency routes.
The playbook: IndiGo — which operates roughly 950 of India’s 1.2k domestic routes and has no direct competitor on 63% of them — will cut flights where rivals operate, while avoiding reductions in those with no competing carriers, with no end date disclosed by the regulator. Meanwhile, DGCA also granted IndiGo a one-time exemption from the stricter pilot rest rules to restore some of the lost capacity.
Background: The planned schedule cut comes after IndiGo’s poor planning for new pilot rest rules led to at least 2k flight cancellations this month, leaving thousands of passengers stranded and fuelling public anger, Reuters reports. IndiGo, which controls about 65% of India’s domestic aviation market, has acknowledged that it failed to plan adequately for a 1 November deadline to implement stricter rules on night flying and weekly rest for pilots.
Time often costs too much: IndiGo’s shares plunged 17.1% over the past week –– wiping about USD 4.3 bn –– including a fall of 8.3% on Monday, while rival SpiceJet jumped 13.9%, taking advantage of the disruption.
ICYMI- UAE flights were hardly hit: Passengers along the India-UAE routes faced up to 10-hour delays during last week’s disruptions, according to Khaleej Times. IndiGo runs flights to 44 international destinations, including all GCC countries. It operates 111 flights per week connecting Abu Dhabi with 16 Indian cities and 108 flights a week to Dubai from 13 Indian cities, according to The National and a company statement.
MARKET WATCH-
#1- Oil prices rose this morning as markets as the waiting lingers for updates on the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, Reuters reported. Brent crude futures increased by USD 0.19 to trade at USD 62.13 / bbl as of 06:45 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was up USD 0.19 to USD 58.44 / bbl.
OVER FROM OUR REGION- Saudi crude flows to China are set to climb in January, with allocations to Chinese refiners expected to reach 49.5 mn barrels, after Aramco cut its official selling prices for Asia, Reuters reports, citing industry sources. The volumes — roughly 1.6 mn bbl / d — mark a jump from the past two months, when allocations remained below 40 mn bbl.
ICYMI- Aramco lowered January’s official selling price (OSP) for its main Arab Light crude to Asia to USD 1.50 / bbl, a USD 0.6 premium over the Oman-Dubai benchmark, marking its lowest level since January 2021. Lower Saudi prices are expected to boost term demand from China, whose independent refiners have recently received new 2026 import quotas.
Cause and effect: The deeper price cut made the grade more attractive, while OSPs falling below spot prices further boosted demand, two sources told Reuters.
Who’s lifting? PetroChina, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Shenghong Petrochemical are planning to lift more Saudi barrels next month, while CNOOC and Hengli Petrochemical will lift less than in the prior month, Reuters said, citing sources in the know.
MEANWHILE- India’s Reliance Industries upped Middle Eastern crude uptake to at least 10 mn bbl in January, Bloomberg reports, citing traders. Thai and Malaysian refiners also increased their purchases from the region.
#2- Baltic index continues to slide: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — eased 5.1% to 2,557 points on Tuesday. The capesize shed 7.6% to 4,631, while the panamax index declined 1.5% to 1,786 points, and the smaller supramax index slipped by 11 points to 1,419.
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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-
Saudi Arabia is hosting the Saudi Airport Exhibition on Tuesday, 16 December until Wednesday, 17 December in Riyadh. Upward of 10k global attendees are expected to participate in the event from over 100 countries. The two-day event will focus on airport-related innovation, and will feature participation from Saudia, SolitAir, and Amadeus.
Saudi Arabia is hosting SkyMove Air Cargo MENA on Tuesday, 27 January until Wednesday, 28 January in Riyadh. The event is expected to welcome more than 600 attendees from over 60 countries. The event will unite the whole air cargo value chain, analyze market trends, mitigate potential challenges, and leverage emerging windows.
The UAE is hosting the Middle East ProcureTech Summit on Tuesday, 27 January until Wednesday, 28 January in Dubai. The two-day event will spotlight the shifts in the procurement sector, paying special attention to digital and cloud procurement, and provide a networking platform for executives and industry innovators.
Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.




