Good morning, friends. We’re heading into the coptic easter weekend with another brisk read. For today, and until we’re back in your inboxes on Tuesday, we have the latest updates on green hydrogen supply chains from Oman, as well as a new aviation services zone from the UAE. But first, the latest on the US trade probes…

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY- Another Trump tariff probe: The US President Donald Trump has signed an order directing Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to investigate the critical mineral supply chain and to come up with ways to boost American production while cutting reliance on imports, according to a statement. If the findings determine that imports of critical minerals threaten to “impair national security” and the president decides to act, those tariffs would replace the reciprocal levies Trump announced earlier this month, according to the White House.

IN CONTEXT- China has restricted exports of seven categories of medium and heavy rare earths last week as part of a set of countermeasures against renewed tariffs by Trump.

The story made headlines in the international press: Reuters | Financial Times | CNBC | Bloomberg | WSJ

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Saudi Arabia on track to be a major feeder shipping hub by end of decade: KSA is potentially set to capture up to 25% (c. USD 2 bn) of the total feeder throughput in the Middle East, East Africa, Turkey (MEEAT), and South Asia by 2030, amounting to 41 mn TEUs, consultancy firm Arthur D. Little said in a report. The projection is underpinned by the Kingdom’s proximity to trade routes, rising local demand, and growing port infrastructure — potentially catching up to 60% of Red Sea feeder trade, 35% of East Africa’s, 20% of the Gulf sea’s, 15% of the Eastern Mediterranean’s, and 10% of the Arabian Sea’s.

#2- The Moroccan ports workers’ union has called on Casablanca Port workers to boycott a Maersk vessel over allegations it is en route to Israel with lethal arms supplies, according to a statement by the Moroccan Labor Union (UMT). The vessel — the Nexoe Maersk — is due to dock at Casablanca this Friday and is slated to receive spare parts for F35 military aircraft and US military cargo from the Maersk Detroit vessel, currently en route to dock at Morocco’s Tangier Port on 20 April, the statement said. The union also called on the government to block the future docking of any vessel carrying Israel-bound arms, and condemned Maersk for contributing to the genocide against Palestinians in Gaza.

Maersk denial: Upon being confronted about the issue at a shareholders’ meeting last March, the shipping giant insisted that it adheres to a “policy of not shipping weapons or ammunitions into any active conflict zone,” Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc reportedly said in March.

#3- Top Iraqi brass dispute nullification of Kuwait maritime pact: Iraq’s President Abdul Latif Rashid and Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani have issued separate appeals against a 2023 ruling by the Federal Supreme Court that voided a 2013 maritime agreement regarding the Khor Abdullah waterway, Kuwait’s public news agency Kuna reports, citing an unnamed source familiar with the matter. Rashid urged the restoration of the agreement, saying Iraq has a constitutional imperative to comply with international treaties.

What agreement? The agreement — signed by former Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki in 2013 — had designated Khor Abdullah channel as a maritime line dividing Iraq and Kuwait, stipulating that “each party shall exercise its sovereignty over that part of the waterway which lies within its territorial water,” The National reported at the time of the pact’s nullification. The agreement was signed after the First Gulf War and was in line with a UN resolution issued in 1993, the outlet explained. Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court ruled that the agreement was unconstitutional, because it should have been ratified by a two-thirds majority of the Iraqi parliament rather than a simple majority.

The stakes are high: Khor Abdullah is Iraq's only gateway to the Gulf — facilitating the majority of its oil exports and imports. The channel is situated near Iraq’s major Umm Qasr port, and the country’s under-construction Al Faw Port — set to be the largest in the region — overlooks the channel. The agreement has been a source of political controversy in Iraq, with activists arguing that it favored Kuwait at the expense of Iraq's access to the waterway.

#4- Egypt + Tunisia eye logistics linkage projects: Egypt and Tunisia are in discussions over reactivating a regular shipping line between the countries to boost trade, in addition to working on a road network via Libya, according to a ministry statement. The two countries are also considering setting up a tripartite committee of the three countries to advance the maritime and land link proposals. The projects were discussed during a meeting between Tunisian Prime Minister Sara Zaafarani and Egypt’s Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib during the latter’s trip to the North African nation.

There’s more: Businesspeople from both nations could soon be able to more freely enter and exit Tunisia — and vice versa — under a visa whitelist initiative that more easily approves multi-entry visas to encourage cross-border investment. Also among the initiatives to improve economic coordination between the two are efforts to reactivate the Egypt-Tunisia Business Council.

#5- Experts continue to assess Trump tariffs impact on GCC: Recently implemented US tariffs are likely to have a limited effect on GCC banks’ operating environments, as GCC exports to the US remain largely limited to the tariffs-exempt hydrocarbon exports, credit rating agency Fitch Ratings wrote in a research note on its website. While the GCC’s non-hydrocarbon exports face a 10% tariff (or 25% for aluminium and steel), they remain relatively limited — keeping the direct effects of the tariffs on GCC economies rather minimal.

Still, other indirect ramifications could take place: “Lower oil prices and weaker global demand” are cited as the primary risks for banks’ operating environments in the GCC, with the tariffs potentially spurring an additional drop in oil prices, which could weaken Fitch’s lending growth forecasts. “While the global tariff wave may stir trade tensions, GCC banks remain largely insulated, with oil prices continuing to serve as the principal barometer of sector performance,” National Bank of Kuwait Senior Economist Issa Hijazeen told EnterpriseAM UAE. “Fitch Ratings underscores that the primary risk to GCC banking remains oil market volatility and its impact on liquidity metrics, rather than direct exposure to international tariff shifts,” Hijazeen said.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices surged this morning amid predictions of shrinking supply after Opec+ announced overproduction curbs and US raised pressure on Iran’s oil trade, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures increased by USD 0.56 to USD 66.41 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) went up by USD 0.65 to reach USD 63.12 a barrel by 06.25 GMT.

The drop comes in light of Opec+ plans to correct overproduction, with Saudi Arabia, Russia, Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, and the UAE submitting updated plans to compensate for exceeding oil production quotas within the OPEC+ agreement, according to a statement.

IN CONTEXT-The oil group dropped its global oil demand forecasts by c. 100k barrels per day for 2025, now projecting a 1.3 mn bbl/d y-o-y increase per year, it said in its latest monthly oil market report. The revised forecasts came after reviewing 1Q data and US tariffs weigh-in on global consumption.

#3- Baltic index dips: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — was down 1.7% to 1,241 points on Wednesday. The capesize declined 5.5% to 1,656 points, while the panamax index gained 30 points to 1,238. The smaller supramax index was up 0.6% to 943.

DATA POINT-

Egypt’s Suez Canal revenues from transit fees are expected to almost double to USD 6.3 bn in the budget draft for FY 2025-26, compared to USD 3.7 bn estimated in the current fiscal year, according to Finance Ministry data seen by EnterpriseAM. The estimate come after revenues from the global waterway dipped by roughly USD 7 bn in 2024, as attacks on passing vessels by Yemen’s Houthis in response to Israel’s war on Gaza pushed the world’s major shipping lines to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host the Airport Show on Tuesday, 6 May to Thursday, 8 May in Dubai. The event will show products and technology for the airport industry from over 160 international suppliers and manufacturers across 20 countries. It will also provide a platform for networking with key players across seven airport sectors.

Saudi Arabia will host the Saudi Smart Logistics trade fair on Monday, 12 May to Thursday, 15 May in Riyadh. The event will provide insights into the latest international and local technology, solutions, equipment providers, and sustainable workflow practices within the logistics industry in the country.

The UAE will host the Global Ports Forum on Tuesday, 13 May to Wednesday, 14 May in Dubai. The forum will cover topics such as port strategy and development, port automation, finance and efficiency.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.