Good morning, friends. We’re kicking off the week with a balanced read, featuring big energy trade and port investments updates from Egypt and Libya.

Up first: Libya appears to be angling for bigger transhipment flows, as a USD 2.7 bn investment from MSC and Qatar’s Maha Capital Partners to modernize Misurata Freezone Port signals the country’s intent to compete directly with Mediterranean peers.

Meanwhile, Egypt has smoothed the path for the USD 35 bn Leviathan gas pact by dropping its initial objections to the "Israel-first" clauses inserted last-minute by the Israeli government — choosing instead to prioritize long-term energy hub status over ensuring locked-in immediate supply.
It was also a busy weekend on the global level, with the resurgence of tariff tit-for-tat between the US and the European Union topping the int'l press.

The big logistics story abroad-

US President Donald Trump has officially launched a Greenland-focused trade war, announcing on Saturday that Washington will slap a 10% tariff on eight European nations — including Denmark, Germany, and the UK — starting 1 February. The levy will increase to 25% on 1 June unless the US secures an agreement for the purchase of Greenland.

In response, the EU is readying a package of retaliatory tariffs — potentially hitting some EUR 93 bn’s worth of trade and restricting some US firms from the bloc’s market, the Financial Times reports.

Countering tariff noise: The EU and Mercosur signed a landmark trade agreement yesterday, eliminating 90% of tariffs between the EU and the South American bloc. Meanwhile, Canada and China reached an agreement to de-escalate trade tensions, including pledges to lower 2024-era duties on Chinese EVs and on Canadian agricultural products.

ALSO- The US secures 74% stake in Armenia’s strategic Zangezur corridor: The US and Armenia will launch a JV to operate the Zangezur corridor, advancing a key part of the US-mediated peace pact between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The JV — the TRIPP Development Company — will receive a 49-year concession to develop and operate a road-and-rail link connecting Azerbaijan and Armenia through the disputed territory of Nakhchivan. Washington will hold 74% of the JV, while Yerevan will retain 26%, as well as full control over borders, customs, taxes, and security. Once developed, the corridor will provide a direct link between Europe and the regions of Central Asia and the South Caucasus, bypassing both Russia and Iran as transit hubs.

Watch this space-

SHIPPING — Maersk tests first full-service return to the Red Sea after a two-year hiatus. Global shipping giant Maersk said it will reroute its MECL service — connecting India with the US East Coast, passing through the Middle East — back through the Red Sea. This comes after Maersk’s Sebarok tested a transit through the route as part of the MECL service back in December.

Why does it matter? By moving from testjourneys to a formal return, Maersk could push other shipping lines to consider returning to Suez Canal transits, with the Danish shipping major now viewing the route’s efficiency as outweighing any lingering security risks. “The decision also reflects a gradual restoration of global shipping lines’ confidence in the region’s vital waterways,” Maersk’s Middle East and North Africa Chief Group Representative Hany El Nady tells EnterpriseAM.

Still, some big concerns linger: With the current negative outlook for the shipping industry’s spot rates, many liners have an incentive to keep the majority of their volumes routed around the Cape of Good Hope, fearing that a return to the shorter Red Sea route would flood the market with capacity and cause freight rates to plunge even lower. Security volatility, while significantly improved, also remains a concern, with Maersk saying it will keep a return to the Cape of Good Hope route as a contingency plan.

Sounds familiar? CMA CGM rerouted its India America Express — the Indamex Service — back through the Red Sea late last year.

DISRUPTION WATCH — Maritime congestion builds outside Iranian ports amid tensions with US: Commercial ships are anchoring at a distance from Iran’s ports as a precaution against possible airstrikes on port infrastructure, Reuters reported last week. A maritime area extending 12 nautical miles off the Iranian coast saw traffic surge from one vessel to 36 tankers between 6 and 12 January, according to data from Pole Star Global.

Which ports are affected? Some 25 bulk carriers have anchored south of Iran’s most important container port, Bandar Abbas, which Israel targeted in June 2025. Meanwhile, at least 25 vessels are similarly stationed near the major port of Bandar Imam Khomeini.

Air disruptions were also widespread, with airlines forced to reroute and cancel flights as Iran temporarily closed its airspace over the weekend (watch, runtime: 02:52). While Iran reopened its airspace after some five hours on Wednesday, many airlines are still using alternative routes in line with the EU aviation regulator's Friday recommendation to avoid Iran’s airspace.

MEANWHILE- The US has pulled some of its personnel from its bases in the Middle East after Iran threatened to retaliate if the US moves ahead with its threat to strike Iran — a prospect that appears less likely — at least for now — after Trump appeared to tone down tensions late last week.

Market watch-

Oil prices saw a slight rise in the early morning as Iran tensions appeared to be easing in the last few days, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures were up USD 0.06 to trade at USD 64.19 / bbl as of 03:27 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased by USD 0.09 to USD 59.53 / bbl for February contracts and USD 0.05 to USD 59.39 / bbl for March contracts.

MEANWHILE- Opec sticks with the “no surplus” argument: Opec expects global oil demand to rise by about 1.34 mn bbl / d in 2027, higher than the 1.39 mn bbl / d it anticipates this year, according to its monthly oil report (pdf). Demand for Opec crude looks stable at 43 mn bbl / d in 2026 — about 600k bbl / d above last year — and edges to 43.6 mn bbl / d in 2027.

Opec’s math points to balance: If Opec holds December’s production rate through this year, output would sit some 170k bbl / d below demand, according to Reuters ’ calculations based on the report.

Supply came in short late last year, with Opec+ output falling to 42.83 mn bbl / d, down 238k bbl / d from November, driven by cuts in Kazakhstan, Russia, and Venezuela.

What to look for next: The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) next monthly oil market report lands next week on 21 January. The agency has not published its 2027 forecast yet, but the first edition this year will cross-check Opec’s demand math. The oil cartel and its watchdog have lately been pushing conflicting narratives, with the IEA forecasting a wider surplus.

The Baltic Index finds a floor –– for now: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — climbed 2.3% to 1,567 points on Friday, ending a nine-day losing streak. The capesize gained 2.3% to 2,224 points, while the panamax index saw a lift of 4.3% to 1,548. Meanwhile, the smaller supramax index added 4 points to hit 967.

The Drewry World Container Index decreased by 4% to USD 2,445 per 40-ft container last week, according to the latest index readings. The decline is driven by a drop across the transpacific and Asia-Europe rates, especially the Shanghai-New York (10%) and Shanghai-Los Angeles (7%) routes.

ICYMI- The container shipping market is bracing for a supply glut in 2027 that could drive a sharp dip in shipping prices, as the potential full return to the Suez Canal meets a record-breaking wave of new ship deliveries, shipowner association Bimco said in a report seen by EnterpriseAM.

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