Good morning, ladies and gents. It’s a brisk read today as we dive into an investment bonanza from around the region, led by the aviation and trade agreements from the Saudi-Syria Investment Forum. But first, are we nearing the end of the EU-US trade showdown? Let’s dive in…

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY-

The US and the EU have narrowly averted a trade war after reaching an agreement that will see the bloc face a 15% tariff on exports to the US. The agreement came following months of talks and just a few days before a Friday deadline will see higher tariffs take effect.

There are still points of contention: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the tariffs covered all exports, including automobiles, drugs, and chips, hitting back at Trump’s claim that the agreement did not cover pharma and metals. The US is working on a probe into pharma that could see it implement a global tariff on drugs later. Conventional wisdom is that we’ll see a low tariff imposed this year — and a much higher one next year after firms have regrouped. (Bloomberg | Financial Times | Reuters | Wall Street Journal | New York Times)

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Qatar has warned it could halt its gas supplies to the EU in response to the bloc’s stringent environmental and forced labor laws, implemented under its corporate sustainability due diligence directive (CSDDD), according to a Qatari letter sent to the Belgian government seen by Reuters on Saturday. “If further changes are not made,” Qatar noted its willingness to “seriously consider alternative markets outside of the EU for our LNG and other products, which offer a more stable and welcoming business environment.”

Firms that fail to comply with the CSDDD could face fines of up to 5% of their global turnover. The EU had proposed amendments to the legislation earlier this year, including easing its requirements and delaying its launch to mid-2028. Qatar does not find these changes sufficient, the newswire said.

#2- Egypt doubles down on efforts to deepen investment ties with Japan: Egyptian Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib inaugurated a business seminar organized by Japan External Trade Organization, where he promoted Egypt as a strategic partner, highlighting potential investments in sectors including logistics, manufacturing, renewables, and software, according to a ministry statement released on Friday. Egypt announced the formation of a support unit to facilitate Japanese investments and company setups.

El Khatib met with representatives from four Japanese companies to discuss ongoing and planned projects, according to a separate statement. During the meeting, pharma player Otsuka announced its plans to set up a USD 40 mn supplements factory that aims to expand its exports to regional markets and create over 1.4k jobs, and Earth Corporation said it is exploring forming industrial partnerships or launching a manufacturing project.

#3- Cypriot gas from the Cronos field could start flowing to Egypt for liquefaction and re-export starting in 2027, according to an Egyptian Oil Ministry statement. The update on the field came during a meeting last Thursday between Oil Minister Karim Badawi and his Cypriot counterpart Giorgos Papanastasiou in Nicosia, with the two sides working to finalize technical agreements and reach a final investment decision on the field’s development this year. The ministers also touched on developments at the Aphrodite field and ongoing offshore surveys to prepare for its connection to local facilities.

REMEMBER- The two sides inked agreements earlier this year that will see Cyprus ship natural gas from its offshore fields to be liquefied in facilities in Idku and Damietta before being re-exported to foreign markets. Cronos field’s supply could reach 400 mcf/d during the first phase in mid-2027, while the Aphrodite field will deliver 500 mn cf/d by 2030.

#4- Syria’s Tartous Port has loaded two phosphate tankers for export to Turkey and Romania, carrying a combined total of 77k tons, according to a statement by Syria’s General Authority for Land and Sea Borders published on Thursday. The port’s total volume of exported phosphate goods hit 230k tons in 1H of this year.

Syria is looking to boost its maritime and port ties with Turkey, following a delegation visit to Mersin and Iskenderun ports, according to a separate statement. The two countries aim to exchange technical and legislative expertise to expand sustainable cooperation in the maritime transport sector.

REMEMBER- Syria’s main ports, Latakia and Tartous, began operating normally after theousting of President Bashar Al Assad in December and subsequent disruptions caused by worker shortages and Israeli airstrikes.

#5- US to ease AI exports? US President Donald Trump unveiled a plan to become an “AI export powerhouse” by easing AI exports to the US’ allies as part of a new AI blueprint aimed at coming out on top in the AI race. The president signed an executive order directing the Secretary of Commerce to implement an AI exports program to allow the deployment of full-stack export packages, including hardware, software, AI models, and cybersecurity measures, according to a White House statement released last week.

The move marks a diversion from former president Joe Biden’s policy to restrict globalaccess to American AI tech over security concerns and fears it will reach China. The restrictive policies have slowed down progress in the UAE’s partnerships with the US, holding up big projects like the USD multi bn agreement to build one of the world’s largest AI datacenter hubs in Abu Dhabi. The US and the UAE had agreed on a chip export agreement that will see 500k Nvidia chips a year exported to the UAE for the project, though this has been stalled over security concerns, with ideas like blocking G42’s direct access from the chips floated.

ICYMI- Elon Musk-backed AI firm xAI was reportedly in discussions with Abu Dhabi’s G42 to lease data centers. Meta Platforms announced plans to invest USD hundreds of bns to establish AI data centers for superintelligence earlier this month.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices increased in early morning trading, following the EU-US trade agreement that settled concerns for high levies, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures gained USD 0.20 to reach USD 68.64 / bbl by 03.36 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures inched up USD 0.15 to trade at USD 65.31 / bbl.

Meanwhile, will the Opec+ ministerial committee hold oil policy steady? The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of Opec+ will likely make no changes to the group’s current oil output policy during tomorrow’s meeting, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing four people it said are in the know. Opec was quick to clarify the JMMC panel has no say in the decision-making process over production levels, but it can monitor and review them, as well as provide its recommendations, the oil group said on X on Friday.

IN CONTEXT- The oil cartel agreed earlier this month to raise production by 548k bbl / d in August, up from its previous monthly output increments of 411k bbl / d for May, June, and July. This comes as the group seeks to accelerate its plan to return around 2.2 mn bbl / d to the market in monthly increments by the end of 2026.

KEEP AN EYE OUT- Opec+ will meet on 3 August to decide on production levels for September; the return of supply could be paused or reversed depending on market conditions.

ALSO- Dubai crude prices are rising to their highest levels this summer as Middle Eastern crude becomes a fallback in global energy markets amid tightening supplies of Russian diesel and escalating geopolitical sanctions, Asharq Business reported on Friday. Refiners across Asia and Europe are increasingly turning to Arabian grades like Murban, which produce higher yields of industrial diesel and meet fuel demands.

#2- Baltic index holds steady: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — remained steady at 2,257 points on Friday. The capesize increased 1% to 3,829 points, while the panamax index dipped 2.3% to 1,838 points. The smaller supramax index fell 0.3% to 1,294 points.

#3- The Drewry World Container Index fell by 3% to USD 2,517 per 40-ft container on Thursday, according to the latest index readings. The drop comes on the back of market turbulence driven by US tariffs rolled back in April. The container forecaster projects the supply-demand balance to fall in 2H 2025 — causing spot rates to fall.

DATA POINT-

#1- Saudi Arabia’s rail network handled nearly 4.1 mn tons of minerals and goods in 2Q 2025, including 3.7 mn tons on the Northern Train network, the Kingdom’s Transport General Authority said on X. The Eastern Train network transported 232k containers (+13%) and 408k tons of goods (+44%). The Kingdom’s rail network welcomed over 36.5 mn passengers, with intracity trains carrying 33.8 mn passengers during the quarter.

#2- Air cargo volumes at Jordan’s Queen Alia International Airport fell by 16.5% y-o-y to 32k tons in 1H 2025, Jordanian news agency Petra reported on Thursday. Aircraft movement rose by 2.2% y-o-y to 36.3k movements during the same time period.

PSAs-

#1- French shipping giant CMA CGM’s subsidiary, CCIS Algérie, has rolled out new fees for containers transiting Algerian ports, in a bid to launch 24/7 operations, Echorouk reported on Thursday. The fees — effective from 1 August — will cover the additional costs of operating night teams between 5pm and 6am at Algiers, Oran, Skikda, and Ghazaouet ports. The new prices range from DZD 9.5k to DZD 18.6k — depending on the time of the transaction.

#2- Hapag-Lloyd rolls out new price hikes…: Shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd has increased its general rates from the Arabian Gulf and the Indian subcontinent to Europe and the Mediterranean Sea by USD 500 for 20-40 ft dry containers, according to a statement released on Thursday. The increase will be applicable starting 16 August.

… and a new GRI: Hapag-Lloyd will also implement a general rate increase (GRI) of USD 1k for cargo in 20-ft and 40-ft dry, reefer, special, and high cube equipment containers transported from the Indian subcontinent and the Middle East to North America, according to another statement on Thursday. The GRI will be implemented starting 1 September and is valid until further notice. The rate will impact shipments coming from the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. It will also impact shipments from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host the Africa Procurement & Supply Chain Leaders’ Conference on Monday, 25 August until Friday, 29 August in Dubai. The conference will host global industry leaders, policymakers and stakeholders to discuss how AI is changing procurement and supply chain efficiency, sustainability and risk management.

Oman will host Transport Middle East on Monday, 1 September until Wednesday, 3 September in Salalah. The conference will host 35 international speakers and over 50 exhibitors from the maritime sector to discuss global transportation and logistics.

Saudi Arabia will host the Sustainable Maritime Industry Conference on Wednesday, 3 and Thursday, 4 September in Jeddah. The event is set to gather over 60 speakers and more than 3k participants to discuss maritime decarbonization, digital transformation, regulatory frameworks, capacity building, and sustainable practices.
Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.