Good morning, folks. It’s a very busy start to the week with news pouring in from across the region. We have updates on Etihad and Asyad’s IPOs, along with a pile of port updates, more data center investments, and new contracts for Hafeet Rail. Let’s dive right in.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The Middle East Breakbulk Conference is kicking off today and will wrap tomorrow in Dubai. The two-day event will feature workshops discussing the latest solutions in breakbulk and heavy-lift logistics across the Middle East and Africa.

#2- The Sustainable Aviation Futures MENA forum is opening its doors today and will conclude on Wednesday in Abu Dhabi. The forum will host key figures in the aviation industry, including notable speakers from Lufthansa Group, ACI World, Saudia Group, Arab Air Carriers’ Organization (AACO) and DHL Express.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Dubai Investment will invest some USD 500 mn in Dubai Investments Park Angola over the next 12 to 15 years, chairman Khalid bin Kalban told The National. The economic zone will include industrial, commercial, residential, and recreational spaces, serving the manufacturing, logistics, technology, retail, and tourism sectors. The company partnered with China Harbour Engineering Company to commence its infrastructure works in March 2024.

More in the pipeline: Dubai Investments is currently planning to develop other projects in the African country, including in real estate, pharma, and agriculture, bin Kalban said. It plans to create a holding company with the Angolan sovereign wealth fund to develop special-purpose vehicles for these projects, with the income generated from each plot funding the next one, bin Kalban said.

IN OTHER NEWS FROM THE UAE- Japan and UAE are expected to finalize negotiations on an economic partnership agreement to be inked this year, UAE Foreign Trade Minister Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi told state news agency Wam. Negotiations began in September 2024 alongside talks over a wider GCC agreement. Japan’s trade volume with the GCC is expected to reach USD 46 bn by 2033, while the UAE is Japan’s leading trade partner in the Arab world, accounting for about 37% of the Asian country’s exports to Arab countries.

#2- Trump’s calls to ethnically cleanse Gaza could derail hopes that traffic will return through the Red Sea, shipping insiders tell the Financial Times. There is a “risk that the Houthis are not just going to sit tight” and may restart their attacks on passing vessels as the US president’s comments may lead to the unraveling of an already fragile ceasefire, commodities shipping group Norden head Jan Rindbo told the salmon-colored paper.

Remember, thehoped-for post-ceasefire resumption of traffic through the Suez Canal has yet to materialize, with only a trickle of US- and UK-linked ships passing through the Red Sea safely after Yemen’s Houthis announced they would only target Israeli-linked vessels following the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.

Maersk still pessimistic about swift Red Sea return: The shipping giant doesn’t see Suez Canal traffic picking up before the middle of the year, it said in a statement last week, but sees the canal welcoming back vessels in a major way by the end of the year.

The delay could be a silver lining: The firm’s projection for a mid-year return could potentially leave Maersk breaking even in 2025, while its forecast for continued restriction until the end of the year could potentially see it recording nearly USD 3 bn in net income, the Financial Times reports.

ICYMI- CMA CGM, Adnoc, and Maersk have all said earlier they will continue to steer away from the Red Sea despite the Gaza ceasefire agreement and a vow by the Houthis to halt attacks on non-Israeli-linked vessels.

#3- Orascom Industrial Parks (OIP) earmarks investment for new industrial zone: OIP is setting up a 3.5 mn sqm industrial zone in Ain Sokhna with projected investments of EGP 7 bn (c. USD 139 mn) over the next 10 years, CEO Amr El Batrik told Asharq Business on Sunday. The new zone will focus on export-oriented industries — specifically to Europe and neighboring Arab countries — as well as green hydrogen production and related components.

SOUNDS FAMILIAR- Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) signed an EGP 13 bn land usufruct contract with Orascom Construction subsidiary Orascom Industrial Parks to develop the integrated industrial complex in Ain Sokhna Industrial Zone back in November as part of a series of other projects inked back in March.

ALSO- Egypt’s Industry Ministry has designated 30 mn sqm for an industrial zone in Ras El Hekma, with plans on setting up three other zones across the country — in Borg El Arab, New Alamein, and Matrouh, Industry Minister Kamel El Wazir said at the Akhbar Al Youm Conference on Saturday (watch, runtime: 1:23). The government is also establishing an international airport at Ras El Hekma, and will cater to tourists as well as industrial activity in the area, El Wazir said. The Egyptian government had started shortlisting sites for the airport early last year and greenlit setting up a private freezone around the same time.

#4- UAE + India to expand their CEPA: The UAE and India are looking to extend their 10-year comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) into eight new sectors, including a new focus on logistics, AI, digital tech, and financial services, the Sec-Gen of the Indian Business and Professional Council Sahitya Chaturvedi told AGBI in a report published on Thursday.

A smash hit? The CEPA — inked in 2022 — has already bypassed its initial five-year target of USD 100 bn per annum, Chaturvedi said. The CEPA — covering about 11 sectors such as energy — allows for the reduction or removal of tariffs on over 80% of products traded between the pair, including the dismantling of unnecessary technical barriers for bilateral exporters, according to a statement.

Trade volumes: India is the UAE’s second-largest trading partner, representing nearly 9% of the Gulf country’s total foreign trade and 14% of its non-oil exports, while the UAE is India’s third biggest trade partner, according to data by IBEF.

#5- US is targeting China-linked Iranian oil: The US Treasury announced sanctions targeting several individuals and tankers for alleged participation in “facilitating the shipment of millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil worth hundreds of millions of dollars” to China, according to a press release published on Thursday.

What we know: Entities from different jurisdictions, such as the UAE, India, and China, were targeted. Tankers, such as the Panama-flagged CHBillion and the Hong Kong-flagged Star Forest, were named, with the US claiming that the tankers onboarded Iranian crude from storage facilities in China. Sanctions were also deployed against China’s Yong Folks International Trading Co and Lucky Ocean Shipping Limited, as well as India’s Marshal Ship Management Private Limited, which has operations in UAE and the Philippines.

The first set of many: The US is ramping up economic pressure on Iran, ordering “maximum pressure” on the country last week, in a bid to curtail its alleged pursuit of a nuclear weapon, including by cutting its oil exports to zero.

#6- Airbus’ output and deliveries eased in January, while some analysts project the final tally to be slightly higher than the observable deliveries, Reuters reported last week, citing data from UK-based Cirium Ascend. The planemaker delivered some 22 aircraft in January, down around 26% y-o-y. In January, Airbus experienced an engine shortage after reaching an agreement with engine supplier CFM to accelerate some deliveries originally scheduled for December, industry executives told the newswire. Airbus’ end-of-year sprint increased its 2024 deliveries by 4% y-o-y to 766 jets. The firm was rushing to speed up deliveries in December, hoping to meet promised delivery targets despite persistent production delays and supply chain disruptions.

IN OTHER AVIATION NEWS- Europe’s aviation industry has lowered its expectations for hydrogen-powered planes in achieving net zero by 2050, warning that the cost of decarbonization has surged, the Financial Times reported last week, citing a revised net zero roadmap (pdf) by industry groups. The roadmap projects that hydrogen-powered aircraft will account for just 6% of emission reduction by 2050 — down from a 20% forecast in 2021 — due to a lower-than-expected market share.

Ballooning cost: The report also estimates that European aviation will face more than EUR 1.3 tn in extra costs to reach net zero, EUR 480 bn higher than previous projections.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices went up as markets continued to assess the impact of a possible US tariff on aluminum and steel imports, which could stifle demand given that both are essential and energy-intensive industries, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures increased by USD 0.51 to USD 75.17 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ticked up USD 0.45 to USD 71.45 a barrel by 04.44 GMT.

#2- Baltic index on an upward trajectory: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — grew 22 points to 815 on Friday. The capesize index rose by 28 points to 840, while the panamax index gained 6 points to 1,035. The smaller supramax index rose by 28 points to 677.

#3- The Drewry World Container Index fell 3% to USD 3,273 per 40-ft container on Thursday, according to the latest index readings. Spot rates for 40-ft containers are now 68% below the previous pandemic peak but remain 130% above the pre-pandemic rate of USD 1.4k. The average composite index YTD is USD 3,638 per 40ft container, which is USD 760 higher than the 10-year average rate of USD 2,878.

#4- Tariffs + inflation set to be 2025’s market shakers: 51% of global traders predict inflation and tariffs will have the most impact on global markets in 2025, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing a survey of global traders by JP Morgan. Geopolitical tensions, US-China relations, and possible recessions also weighed in on the global traders' concerns for the year.

As for the market challenges: Almost 41% of respondents cited unpredicted volatility as a top concern for 2025, and 17% mentioned access to liquidity, followed by market data access, regulatory changes, and workflow efficiency.

DATA POINT-

#1-Morocco’s total port traffic saw a 15.2% y-o-y growth to 241.2 mn tons in 2024, according to a statement published on Thursday. The total volume of exports also rose 13.3% y-o-y, reaching 40.8 mn tons, while imports rose 12.4% y-o-y to 75.5 mn tons during the year. Domestic traffic rose 11.4% y-o-y to 125.5 mn tons, with transhipment traffic increased 19.5% y-o-y to 115.6 mn tons.

#2- UAE-based DP World’s ports and terminals recorded an 8.3% y-o-y boost to 88.3 mn TEUs in 2024, amid macroeconomic turbulence and an uncertain outlook for global trade, according to a statement released on Thursday. DP World’s operations in the UAE’s Jebel Ali Port marked a 7% y-o-y increase in volumes handled last year. The firm recorded the most growth in its operations at Ecuador’s Posorja terminal, which gained 87% in volume to almost 1 mn TEUs. The logistics giant has the capacity to handle over 100 mn TEUs across its operations in 78 countries.

#3- Indian and South Asian airlines will drive demand for jets,Boeing forecasts, with demand projected to increase four-fold, adding 2.8k commercial aircraft to the region’s fleet over the next 20 years, Reuters reported on Thursday. This is up from the manufacturing giant’s previous market expectations, which estimated demand to settle at 2.7k jets. The region’s air traffic is expected to increase 7% per year until 2043, and India stands out as the third-biggest domestic aviation market in the world, following the US and China.

#4- Global LNG exports rose 1.6% y-o-y to hit 411.5 mn tons in 2024, its slowest pace since 2020, with the slumped growth driven by fewer new projects, capped production capacity and Western sanctions on Russia’s Arctic 2 LNG facility, according to an OAPEC report (pdf). The US led the way as the top exporter, hiking exports by 1.6% y-o-y to 88.9 mn tons in 2024, while Russia also bolstered its exports by 6.8% y-o-y to 33.3 mn. Arab countries accounted for 26.4% of global LNG exports at 108.6 mn tons,

LNG demand increased in Asia, but declined in Europe: Global LNG imports rose by 1.6% y-o-y to 412.8 mn tons in 2024, with Asia emerging as a key propeller of demand, as Europe reduced its reliance on LNG imports. Asia’s LNG imports spiked by 8.4% y-o-y to 284 mn tons, while Europe's imports plummeted 18.1% y-o-y to 100.9 mn tons.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Kenya will host Air Cargo Africa from Wednesday, 19 February to Friday, 21 February in Nairobi. The trade fair, focused on aviation in the logistics sector, offers an inclusive platform to showcase multimodal transport solutions across the continent. The event , slated to gather over 2k visitors from over 50 countries, will host over 60 exhibitors and brands who will exhibit the latest developments in airfreight.

The UAE will host Dubai Freight Camp from Thursday, 20 February to Saturday, 22 February in Dubai. The event looks to connect new partners and businesses in the freight forwarding industry. Global members from freight networks Pangea and Connecta are invited to partake in the conference.

The UAE is holding AD Ports Group Capital Markets Day on Monday, 24 February in Abu Dhabi. The full-day, in-person event will see investors, analysts, corporate and investment bankers and other securities market professionals gather to evaluate AD Port’s financial performance and the group’s strategy going forward. Group and cluster senior management, as well as other guest speakers, will visit flagship assets in Abu Dhabi.

The UAE will host the WCA Worldwide Conference from Tuesday, 25 February to Saturday, 1 March in Dubai. The event — set to bring together over 4.5k freight forwarders from 179 countries — will host several workshops and courses over one week.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.