Good morning, nice people. We’re kicking off the week with a packed issue full of the latest investment, M&A, and port updates from across the region. But first, Trump appears to be giving his neighbors time to get their house in order…

THE BIG STORY ABROAD- US hits pause on Canada + Mexico tariffs scheme: US President Donald Trump suspended 25% tariffs slapped on Canada and Mexico until 2 April and has excluded 10 duties slapped on Canadian imports of potash — a fertilizer used by US farmers. "On April 2, we're going to move with the reciprocal tariffs … hopefully Mexico and Canada will have done a good enough job on fentanyl that this part of the conversation will be off the table … but if they haven't, this will stay on," US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC.

You postpone, I postpone: Canada will delay its 25% retaliatory tariffs on a total of CAD 125 bn worth of US goods until 2 April as a response. The Canadian tariffs were announced last week and were supposed to be on a total of CAD 155 bn worth of US goods, CAD 30 bn of the total were supposed to be imposed immediately, while the other CAD 125 bn were going to be effective in three weeks, on cars, trucks, steel and aluminum.

Trump’s never-ending threats: Trump may impose more reciprocal tariffs on Canadian dairy and lumber, Reuters reported on Saturday. The exact timeline has not been disclosed, but may happen this week, Trump said. Earlier this month, Trump ordered a trade investigation into lumber products that could lead to additional tariffs on major exporters, like Canada.

The story grabbed headlines over the weekend: Reuters | The Associated Press | Bloomberg | The New York Times | CNN | CNBC | BBC | The Guardian

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Egypt has reportedly set a pricing and payment mechanism for securing LNG supply agreements for the summer months, a government official told Asharq Business. The details were sent to global LNG traders in a bid to secure direct contract offers instead of issuing public tenders, the government official said.

The details:

• Price cap: Egypt will only consider offers if the price does not exceed USD 14 per mn British thermal units (BTU);
• Deferred payments: LNG suppliers must agree to a one-year grace period after delivery to receive payments;
• Overprice charges: Egypt will pay some USD 2 per mn BTU above the purchase spot for natural gas as an allowance for the deferred payments;
• Restricting suppliers: No Russian LNG imports allowed due to EU sanctions.

Direct contracting or bidding tenders? Last month, the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation was reported to be preparing to launch a tender in 2Q 2025 for additional LNG shipments on behalf of the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company. The planned shipments — to be scheduled for 3Q 2025 delivery — aim to meet the heightened summer demand.

Egypt has high LNG needs: Egypt aims to import 155 to 160 shipments of LNG in 2025 to address growing domestic needs, especially during the summer when energy demand surges amid increasingly warmer summers. On an average, the country needs 6.2 bn cubic ft per day (bcf\d), whereas its production capacity has dropped to some 4.35 bcf\d, Asharq reports.

REMEMBER- Egypt has been ramping up efforts to secure supplies to meet the expected surge in energy demand this summer, reportedly securing a deal with Shell and TotalEnergies in December to purchase a total of 60 LNG shipments in 2025 for around USD 3 bn. The country has also reportedly chartered up to four floating storage regasification units to process LNG imports this summer, and a fifth unit was reported to be under negotiations last month.

#2- Trump axes Iran’s Baghdad-bound energy exports: The Trump administration has abrogated a waiver allowing Iraq to import Iranian electricity in a bid to curtail the Islamic Republic’s alleged nuclear weapons program and its support for what the US has designated terrorist groups, Reuters reports.

Unwavering pressure: The US granted Baghdad a waiver to import Iranian electricity in 2018, with a caveat that Iraqi payments are only to be used for “humanitarian” spending in Iran. The latest waiver was issued in November 2024 and was set to expire this month.

Lights out in Baghdad? The cancellation may exacerbate Iraq’s power supply problems as the nation reportedly produces 27 GW — which sometimes drops to 17 GW — whereas the country needs 40 GW to keep the lights on throughout the day, Asharq Business reports. The US State Department spokesperson claimed Iranian electricity comprised merely 4% of Iraq’s energy usage in 2023.

Iraq to switch to Gulf gas: The Iraqi government is reportedly planning to shift to Gulf gas imports after the rescinding of US waivers, Parliament's Oil and Gas Committee spokesperson Ali Shadad told Shafaq News. However, it is not clear whether Iraq has the generational capacity to convert the imported gas into electricity.

ON THE SHIPPING FRONT- The US may intercept Iran’s oil tankers at sea: Washington is reportedly considering a plan to stop-and-search Iran’s crude oil vessels at sea, using a decades-old accord on curbing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing six unnamed sources. The measures aim to cripple Iran’s sources of revenue and could cut exports by 750k barrels per day and delay crude shipments to refiners.

Iran’s guide to skirting US sanctions at sea: Iran has reportedly resorted to smaller and moreagile tankers — specifically Aframax and Suezmax vessels — to deliver its crude to China. It has also reportedly implemented ship-to-ship transfers at locations including Malaysia and the UAE’s Fujairah to mask the source of shipments.

REMEMBER- The Trump administration enacted a so-called “maximum pressure” policy against Iran in February, with waves of sanctions targeting the country’s shadow fleet and oil operations.

#3- Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) is looking to snap up natural gas producing fields in the US, Bloomberg reports, citing sources with knowledge of the matter. The potential acquisitions will aim to support its existing US assets and enhance its access to fuel and feedstock for its chemical plants and LNG export facilities in the US. The oil-producing giant would also benefit from local price increases and reduce its exposure from fuel purchases, Bloomberg said.

The company’s CEO Sultan Al Jaber is scheduled to discuss Adnoc’s investment strategy — including in the US during energy conference CERA Week in Houston tomorrow, before heading to meetings in Washington.

Adnoc has been ramping up its US presence: Adnoc acquired an 11.7% stake in the first phase of sustainable LNG producer NextDecade's USD 18 bn Rio Grande LNG export facility in Texas back in May 2024. It also took on a 35% stake in ExxonMobil’s proposed low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia production facility in Texas back in September, which it later transferred to its ammonia arm Fertiglobe. Just a few weeks ago, Adnoc and Austria’s OMV agreed to merge their polyolefins businesses, creating a USD 60 bn global polyolefins JV and acquiring Nova Chemicals, which has facilities on the US Gulf coast. The company’s USD 80 bn lower-carbon energy and chemicals firm XRG is set to assume ownership of Adnoc’s shares in all US facilities.

IN OTHER LNG NEWS- Qatar Energy + Exxon Mobil grab deadline push for LNG plant: US federal regulators have accepted a request from Golden Pass LNG — a project by QatarEnergy and Exxon Mobil — to push back the deadline for launching the LNG project to 30 November 2029, Bloomberg reported on Thursday. The firms now have a three-year extension to launch the Texas-based project, whose output is being touted as a much-needed boost for LNG sourced from the US — the world’s topexporter of the fuel.

Trump is turning the tanker: US President Donald Trump ordered a resumption of export applications for LNG in January. The move is in line with Trump’s oil and gas push that saw him rescind Joe Biden’s 2024 moratorium on exports to allow assessments of the environmental and economic impacts of the export, as well as lift a ban on oil drilling in the Arctic and across large areas off the American coast.

Not the first extension: The Qatar Energy and Exxon Mobil JV got a deadline extension last October, months after the project’s lead construction contractor Zachry Holdings filed for bankruptcy, claiming that the project was at least USD 2.4 bn over the original budget.

#4- French concessions and construction company Vinci has expressed its interest in managing and operating Egyptian airports as part of the government’s airport privatization push, according to a statement released on Friday.

Vinci isn’t the only major global company to express interest in the offering, with three of Europe’s largest operators having put their hat in the ring, Civil Aviation Minister Sameh Elhefny said last month. This includes France’s Groupe Aéroports de Paris (ADP France) and Hassan Allam Holding who submitted a joint proposal back in December.

We should have some concrete information soon with the International Finance Corporation expected to reach an agreement with the government on its privatization plan for the management of 11 airports by the middle of this month. The IFC’s full airport privatization plan will reportedly be out around July.

IN OTHER AVIATION UPDATES- Saudi’s PIF is investing USD 100 mn in Malaysian budget airline AirAsia, making it the biggest contributor to the airline’s USD 226 mn fundraising target, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing sources it says are in the know. AirAsia is offering investors up to a 15% stake at a USD 2 bn valuation as it targets recovery from covid-19 losses.

The rationale: A key draw for the PIF’s investment is AirAsia’s backlog of over 350 Airbus narrowbody aircraft. PIF’s Riyadh Air secured part of these delivery slots, easing the Malaysian airline’s financing burdens while providing Riyadh Air with planes needed for its 3Q 2025 launch. Riyadh Air chose the slots instead of purchasing 100 Boeing 737 jets.

Nothing set in stone: AirAsia is also in talks with investors from Singapore and Japan, with a potential announcement expected within weeks, although reaching a final agreement is not guaranteed, the sources said.

ALSO- Qatar Airways is planning to scale back its rapid expansion after securing one more aircraft order, CEO Badr Mohamed Al Meer told the Financial Times on Thursday. The Qatari carrier has been in talks with Airbus and Boeing over orders that could increase its current passenger capacity from 50 mn to 80 mn annually over the next five to six years. “We will reach capacity at [Doha’s Hamad international airport], and that’s it… the airline will focus on expanding its partnerships with other carriers and its networks by feeding passengers into these partner carriers to continue their journey,” Al Meer said.

Quality in mind: Qatar’s flagship carrier — which is locked in fierce competition with regional powerhouses such as UAE’s Etihad and Emirates — aims to avoid walking in the footsteps of other airlines that have sacrificed quality of service for additional flights, routes, and passengers, Al Meer said.

ICYMI- Qatar Airways is working on a Request for Proposal (RFP) for a “sizeable” order of widebody aircraft to buttress long-term growth goals. The carrier is mulling whether to acquire the undisclosed number of aircraft from Boeing, Airbus, or under a split contract between the two manufacturers.

#5- Russia sends diesel to Syria on sanctioned ship: Russia has shipped diesel to Syria on board a US-sanctioned tanker, the Barbados-flagged Prosperity, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing LSEG data. The 37k-metric-tons vessel — managed by Dubai-based Fornax Ship Management — was loaded at the Russian Baltic port of Primorsk last month, yet the final destination was unclear. Fornax is under US sanctions, and the US added Prosperity to a list of 180 sanctioned vessels in January 2025 that were involved in the export of Russian oil amid the war with Ukraine.

REMEMBER- The US Treasury Department issued temporary exemptions in January to allow transactions with government institutions and the oil sector as well as personal transfers in Syria. The license, valid for six months, expands authorizations for activities and transactions in Syria following the end of former president Bashar Al Assad’s rule.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices dipped this morning amid continued uncertainty on the outlook of tariffs and rising production from Opec+, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures dropped by USD 0.31 to USD 70.05 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by USD 0.35 to USD 66.69 a barrel by 04.45 GMT.

IN OTHER OIL MARKET UPDATES- Opec+ production was up already in February: Steadfast oil exports from Iran and quota-breaching production from Nigeria reportedly led Opec+ exports to climb to some 26.7 mn barrels per day (bpd) in February, according to a survey by Reuters published on Thursday. The figure exceeded January’s figure by some 170k bpd. The survey found Iraq and Saudi Arabia operating below Opec’s mandated quota, with the UAE hovering slightly above it.

MEANWHILE- Saudi Aramco has lowered its crude prices for Asian buyers in April for the first time in three months, cutting Arab Light by USD 0.40 cents to USD 3.50 per barrel above the Oman and Dubai average, Reuters reported on Friday. The price cut aligns with market expectations, with a Reuters poll predicting a reduction of USD 0.20-0.65. The move follows Opec+’s decision to gradually increase oil supply in April, though the decision could be reversed if market imbalances emerge, Reuters reported, citing Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

#2- Baltic index snaps losing streak: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — rose 114 points to 1,400 on Friday. The capesize surged by 340 points to 2,422, while the panamax index rose 3 points to 995. The smaller supramax index was flat at 864 points.

#3- The Drewry World Container Index decreased 3% to USD 2,541 per 40-ft container on Thursday, according to the latest index readings. Spot rates for 40-ft containers are now 76% below the previous pandemic peak but remain 79% above the pre-pandemic rate of USD 1.4k. The average composite index YTD is USD 3,289 per 40ft container, which is USD 405 higher than the 10-year average rate of USD 2,883.

DATA POINTS-

#1- The UAE’s digital service exports grew 5% y-o-y to USD 47.9 bn in 2023, buoyed by a number of Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPAs), Wam reports, citing Foreign Trade Minister Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi. Digital trade now accounts for over 63% of global services exports, spanning fintech, ins., consulting, and software development.

The UAE’s CEPAs usually include dedicated digital trade provisions, providing Emirati businesses with expanded international market access. The agreements also streamline intellectual property protections, ensuring faster trademark and patent recognition in partner countries.

#2- Oman’s Shinas Port handled nearly 100k tonnes of goods valued at OMR 11.5 mn in 2024, Muscat Daily reported on Thursday. The port received a total of 91.3k tonnes of imported goods and exported a total of 11.7k tonnes of goods during the same period. The port total number of ships that passed through has increased by 41% y-o-y in 2024 to 707 ships due to ongoing infrastructure improvements and enhanced services during the same period.

PSA-

Hapag-Lloyd rolls out new PSS: Shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd will add a peak season surcharge (PSS) of USD 550 for 20 ft containers, and USD 750 for 40 ft containers and all shipments from Italy, Spain, Portugal and Southern France in the Mediterranean to USA, Canada and Mexico, according to a statement published last week. The PSS is applicable starting 5 April 2025 until further notice.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host the Gulf Ship Finance Forum on Thursday, 10 April in Dubai. The forum will host shipping and finance executives from around the region and the world to host presentations, interviews and panel discussions on ownership, management, chartering, legal and trading in shipping.

The UAE will host the CargoIS Forum on Monday, 14 April in Dubai. The event will discuss industry insights and strategies from leading logistics players, including Emirates SkyCargo and Lufthansa Cargo.

The UAE will host the IATA World Cargo Symposium from Tuesday, 15 April to Thursday, 17 April in Dubai. The event will host sessions, specialized streams, workshops and summits related to technology, security, customs, cargo operations and sustainability for over 1.4k industry leaders.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.