Good morning, ladies and gents. We have an accidental Egypt issue on our hands this morning, with lots of news flowing in from Om el Donia. Imports, exports, digitalization and fresh manufacturing agreements are all on the cards, so let’s jump right in.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- Egyptian state grain buyer GASC has reportedly secured 3.12 mn metric tons of wheat to be supplied monthly between November and April, Reuters reports, citing two sources familiar with the matter. The purchase — one of GASC’s largest — will see a monthly 510k metric tons of wheat sourced from the Black Sea region.
The details are fuzzy: The wheat will reportedly be supplied by a JV between an Egyptian company and a major global supplier. The price for each month’s supply will be assessed based on market price for the month, one source told the newswire.
Remember: The government has been looking to capitalize on a global dip in prices in efforts to bolster strategic wheat reserves amid geopolitical tension. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi reportedly personally ordered GASC's biggest ever tender in August after he received an intelligence briefing that raised concerns over our food security. The massive tender fell short of its target, with GASC purchasing 280k tons of the 3.8 mn tons it aimed to buy.
Question marks remain: According to Reuters, traders have expressed doubts that the order will be fulfilled, with one person “saying that it could be conditional on whether the company will be able to fulfill its October shipment” — GASC purchased 430k tons of Russian wheat in September for delivery this month.
#2- Adnoc-backed energy storage company VTTI is planning to invest in LNG import terminals across Asia to meet the growing demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the region, the company’s CEO Guy Moeyens told Bloomberg. The Rotterdam-based company has recently acquired a 50% stake in Dragon LNG, one of the UK's three LNG import terminals, in August. Adnoc acquired a 10% stake in VTTI in 2019.
Did someone say LNG? VTTI previously acquired a 50% stake in Dragon LNG — one of the UK’s three LNG import terminals — back in August and is set on buying a stake in Italy’s Adriatic LNG, Bloomberg writes. It also has an agreement with the Bermudian Hoegh LNG to jointly establish an energy terminal in the Dutch province of Zeeland. Adnoc has also approved the construction of a new LNG export terminal earlier this year and acquired stakes in projects across the US and Africa.
#3- Agility invests in Global Ventures fund: ADX-listed global logistics provider and Kuwait’s Agility subsidiary Agility Global is investing in Global Ventures’s third fund — a new Dubai-based investment fund — which aims to provide capital to early-stage MENA firms operating in the supply chain, energy, and agri-tech industries, Wamda reports. No financial details or timeline for the investment have been disclosed.
MARKET WATCH-
#1- Oil prices continued to rise this morning in response to rising Middle East conflict potentially disrupting crude oil flows, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures gained USD 0.80, or 1.08%, to USD 74.70 a barrel by 04.05 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained USD 0.85 trading at USD 70.95 a barrel. "The question for oil now is whether Iran's energy infrastructure will be in Israel's crosshairs," IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong told the newswire.
Israel could attempt to hinder Iran’s ability to export oil if the ongoing conflict escalates, GeoQuant Research Head Ross Schapp told CNBC (watch, runtime, 01:48). The current state of the conflict has spiked the deviation of risk above five to six deviation points, leading experts to think Israel will try to change the equilibrium from what it has been for over a decade. This would “dramatically increase the price of oil,” Schaapp expects. At present, however, Israel is expected to focus more on military targets, rather than economic ones. Iran fired some 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday night, most of which the Israeli army says were intercepted. If Iran persists in retaliatory strikes, Israel could expand beyond military targets, Schapp told CNBC.
#2- Opec+ keeps output policy unchanged, says December phaseout hinges on compliance: Opec+ has opted to stay the course on its planned oil production target, including plans to phase out supply cuts by December, putting it on course for a 180k barrels per day (bbl / d) hike by the end of the year, it said in a statement following a meeting yesterday. The oil cartel is also keeping a sharp eye on the compliance and compensatory plans of Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia, who have been under scrutiny for producing beyond their quotas. The trio pledged 123k bbl / d of compensation cuts beginning in September and continuing into later months to make up for overproduction.
And if they didn’t? Further lack of compliance could push Saudi Arabia and other Opec+ members to boost production at a quicker rate, Reuters said. “If they fail to comply, we can envision a swifter sunsetting of the voluntary cuts,” Reuters quotes RBC Capital’s Helima Croft as saying.
The next checkpoint? The group is scheduled to reconvene on Sunday, 1 December to decide whether to hold steady or adjust according to market conditions.
#3- Baltic maintains a downward trajectory: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — slipped another 2.6% to 1,978 points on Wednesday, its lowest point since 20 September. The capesize index dipped over 3% to 3,399 points, while the panamax index declined another 22 points to 1,364 points. The smaller supramax index fell 11 points at 1,272 points.
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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-
Bahrain will host the Routes World forum from Sunday, 6 October to Tuesday, 8 October. The event will bring together VPs and network planning heads from some 250 carriers to discuss global air route networks.
Saudi Arabia will host the Global Logistics Forum from Saturday, 12 October to Monday, 14 October in Riyadh. The forum will gather key industry players, government officials, and industry experts to discuss optimizing operations and driving growth in the logistics sector. The event will take a specific look at how the sector can adapt with regards to global climate change and incorporate sustainability into their supply-chain operations.
Saudi Arabia will host the Global Airport & Aviation Forum from Wednesday, 16 October to Thursday, 17 October in Jeddah. The forum will bring together aviation leaders and experts to discuss future projects in the aviation industry, including new airport developments, capacity upgrades and expansions, new aircraft orders, and important airport services.
Saudi Arabia will host the Smart Ports & Logistics Transformation Summit on Monday, 21 October and Tuesday, 22 October in Riyadh. The two-day conference aims to discuss strategies, innovation, and technologies in line with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which aims to position KSA as a logistics hub in the MENA region.
The UAE will host the International Conference on Tourism, Transport, andLogistics on Saturday, 26 October and Sunday, 27 October in Dubai. The event will gather scientists, scholars, and engineers from around the world to discuss new ideas and research development projects in the industry.
Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.




