Good morning, nice people. It’s a fairly busy news day this morning, with some rail updates emerging from Egypt and a lookahead on some firms scouting data center and green hydrogen development in the region. First, let’s look at what’s happening this week in terms of trade…

HAPPENING TODAY-

A business delegation led by Federation of Saudi Chambers (FSC) Chairman Hussein Al Huwaizi is heading to Azerbaijan and Georgia today to kick the tires on potential business ventures and sign trade agreements, the FSC said in a post on X. The delegation, which includes 65 business leaders from different sectors, is scheduled to meet with public and private sector officials to look at trade and investment prospects.

ON A RELATED NOTE- Fifty Saudi companies have lined up to invest in Azerbaijan’s energy, food, and logistics sectors as Baku looks to ramp up Saudi investment activity in the country to USD 4 bn-worth of investments from a total of 80 companies, Executive Director of the Azerbaijan Export and Investment Promotion Agency Yusif Abdullayev told Aleqtisadiah during the Gulf-Azerbaijan Economic Forum.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Maritime security firms have raised the risk level for ships calling at Israeli ports, as terminals face the possibility of missile attacks from Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis, Reuters reported on Friday. British maritime security company Ambrey assessed the risk to vessels calling at Israeli ports to be “elevated,” and top ship industry associations have urged ship operators to “limit information access” at Israeli ports.

What they said: “Possible further escalatory Israeli airstrikes or an Israeli ground incursion (in Lebanon) would highly likely cause direct operations against Haifa port…simultaneous action by Hamas, Houthi, or Iraqi militants place Israel’s remaining ports (Ashdod, Ashkelon, Hadera, Eilat) at continuous risk of collateral damage in singular long-range targeting operations,” Ambrey noted in a Friday advisory.

#2- The EU’s Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) is recommending airlines avoid Lebanese and Israeli airspace at “all flight levels” throughout October, due to the “overall intensification of air strikes and deterioration of the security situation,” according to statements issued on Saturday here and here. The EASA says it will be monitoring the situation and may revise its flight risk advice as the situation develops.

#3- AD Ports issues tender for port and ferry infrastructure development: The UAE’s AD Ports has issued an invitation to tender for marine and landside infrastructure development at Delma Port, Jabal Dhanna Ferry Terminal, and Al Sila Port for October 2024, Zaywa Projects reported on Friday. The tender was part of an Expression of Interest (EOI) invite issued in August. The bid submission is scheduled for November 2024 and the contract award is for December 2024. AD Ports could be tendering the project as a single package or multiple packages.

#4- The UAE is interested in investing in Bangladesh's Chattogram port — previously known as Chittagong Port, Bangladeshi news outlet Business Standard reports, citing comments made by UAE Ambassador to Bangladesh Abdullah Ali Al Hamoudi. This came during a meeting with Bangladeshi Textiles, Jute, and Shipping Adviser M Sakhawat Hossain, where the latter called on the UAE to streamline Bangladeshi sailors' access to transit visas.

AD Ports is already there: The Emirati port developer inked an agreement with Bangladesh’s Chittagong Port Authority to explore the development and operation of a multi-purpose port back in May. Some 90% of Bangladesh’s international trade is conducted through Chittagong ports.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices continued to rise in early morning trading as concerns grow over supply pressures in the Middle East, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures for November — which expire today — gained USD 0.51 to USD 72.49 a barrel, while the more active December contract gained USD 0.50 trading at USD 72.04 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose USD 0.43 selling at USD 68.61 a barrel.

Saudi is reportedly planning to scrap its unofficial USD 100 per barrel oil target as officials are committed to raising production by 83k bbl per month from December 2024 even if it induces a period of lower prices, the Financial Times reported on Thursday, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. This comes after OPEC+ agreed earlier this month to suspend its planned 180k bpd output hike for October and November.

REMEMBER- Goldman Sachs sees crude prices reaching USD 77 per barrel in 4Q 2024, according to its recent forecast.

#2- Baltic records near three-month high: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — climbed 0.9% to 2,110 points on Friday, registering a near three-month high. The capesize index was up by 3.4% to 3,869 points, while the panamax index fell by 3.5% to 1,446 points. The smaller supramax index eased eight points at 1,306 points.

#3- The Drewry World Container Index fell by 7% to USD 3,691 per 40-ft container on Thursday, according to the latest index readings. Spot rates for 40-ft containers are now 64% below the previous pandemic peak of USD 10.4k in September 2021, but remains 160% above the pre-pandemic rate of USD 1.4k. The average composite index YTD is USD 4,113 per 40ft container, which is USD 1,288 higher than the 10-year average rate of USD 2,825.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Suez Canal revenues have seen a 50-60% drop — equivalent to USD 6 bn — over the past 7-8 months, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi said yesterday. Back in July, Egyptian Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said Suez Canal revenues haddropped to around USD 300 mn a month, down 64.7% from USD 850 mn previously.

Jordan recorded an increase in exports by 1.9% y-o-y to JOD 5.4 bn in the first seven months of 2024, Jordan Times reports, citing data from the Department of Statistics (DoS). Imports rose by 0.8% y-o-y to JOD 10.7 bn during the same time period. National exports dropped by 0.7% to JOD 4.86 bn between January and July, while re-exports increased by 34.7% y-o-y to JOD 509 mn by the end of July 2024. The trade balance deficit also went down by 0.3% y-o-y to JOD 5.38 bn by the end of July.

#2- Oman’s non-oil exports rose 8% y-o-y to OMR 3.57 bn (c. USD 9.3 bn) in 1H 2024, Times of Oman reported on Saturday, citing data from the National Center for Statistical Information (NCSI). Driving this export growth are metal products, which reached an export value of OMR 1.304 billion, representing a 21.5% increase from last year. Basic metal products and their manufacturers contributed OMR 671 million, with a growth rate of 7.3%. The plastics and rubber sector also saw an 11.5% rise in exports, totaling OMR 473 million, while other product categories collectively added OMR 437 million by mid-year.

#3- Jordan’s national exports to the Arab Freetrade Zone increased by 12.4% y-o-y to JOD 1.94 bn by the end of July 2024, Petra reports, citing official data. Exports to the North American Freetrade Agreement bloc (NAFTA) rose by 13.9% y-o-y to JOD 1.34 bn during the same time period, driven mainly by exports to the US.

Exports to the EU saw a 1.2% y-o-y increase, reaching JOD 250 mn by the end of July, led by exports to the Netherlands. Jordan’s exports to non-Arab Asian countries faced a decline — mainly driven by a drop in exports to India — of 25.8% y-o-y to JOD 933 mn. Exports to other trade blocs also fell by 18.7% y-o-y to JOD 391 mn because of a reduction in exports.

PSA-

Hapag-Lloyd will roll out a general rate increase (GRI) on shipping from the Indian Subcontinent and the Middle East to the US East Coast and Gulf Coast, according to a company statement. The increase to USD 1k per container will be applied to cargo transported in 20 and 40 foot dry, reefer, and special containers, including high cube equipment. The GRI increase is applicable starting 1 November 2024 and valid until further notice.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Bahrain will host the Routes World forum from Sunday, 6 October to Tuesday, 8 October. The event will bring together VPs and network planning heads from some 250 carriers to discuss global air route networks.

Saudi Arabia will host the Global Logistics Forum from Saturday, 12 October to Monday, 14 October in Riyadh. The forum will gather key industry players, government officials, and industry experts to discuss optimizing operations and driving growth in the logistics sector. The event will take a specific look at how the sector can adapt with regards to global climate change and incorporate sustainability into their supply-chain operations.

Saudi Arabia will host the Global Airport & Aviation Forum from Wednesday, 16 October to Thursday, 17 October in Jeddah. The forum will bring together aviation leaders and experts to discuss future projects in the aviation industry, including new airport developments, capacity upgrades and expansions, new aircraft orders, and important airport services.

Saudi Arabia will host the Smart Ports & Logistics Transformation Summit on Monday, 21 October and Tuesday, 22 October in Riyadh. The two-day conference aims to discuss strategies, innovation, and technologies in line with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which aims to position KSA as a logistics hub in the MENA region.

The UAE will host the International Conference on Tourism, Transport, andLogistics on Saturday, 26 October and Sunday, 27 October in Dubai. The event will gather scientists, scholars, and engineers from around the world to discuss new ideas and research development projects in the industry.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.