Good morning, nice people. It's another brisk read today, with lots of news coming in from the UAE, led by reports that Etihad Airways is looking at potentially pushing its IPO plans again until 1Q 2026 as the airline takes pause from recent market sentiment.

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY-

The EU is already souring on the trade agreement it reached with the US a day earlier. The EUR dropped the most in over two months against the USD yesterday, falling more than 1% after having risen to a three-year high last week amid hopes for an agreement. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the agreement would have knock-on effects across the bloc, even possibly extending to the US, while French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou criticized the EU’s “submission.” The agreement secured a 15% tariff on the EU’s exports to the US.

Negotiators are still expected to hammer out the details of the agreement for a non-binding text that could take weeks to complete. This means volatility is still on the table, chief Germany economist at Oxford Economics said in a note.

Meanwhile, officials from the US and China met yesterday in Stockholm to begin talks to resolve disputes and either extend the 90-day truce on tariffs agreed in May for another three months or reach a permanent agreement ahead of a 12 August deadline.

The story grabbed ink in the int’l press: Bloomberg | Financial Times | Reuters

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Brussels takes hard look at Adnoc’s Covestro buy: The European Commission launched an in-depth probe into Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s (Adnoc) EUR 14.7 bn planned buyout of German chemicals maker Covestro, citing concerns that foreign subsidies from the UAE government may distort competition within the bloc’s internal market, it said in a statement. The commission has until Tuesday, 2 December to clear, block or impose remedies on the takeover.

Breaking down the jargon: The probe focuses on whether UAE state support gave Adnoc an unfair edge, first by enabling it to outbid unsubsidized rivals in the acquisition process, and second by potentially allowing the combined Adnoc-Covestro entity to compete on terms not available to EU-based peers, thereby distorting the internal market post-acquisition.

Adnoc’s takeover bid for Covestro is already well advanced: The state-owned oil giant’s investment arm XRG secured a 91.3% stake in Covestro following an extended acceptance period that ended in December of last year. However, Adnoc ultimately aims to gain full ownership of the German chemicals company with the transaction structure enabling a potential squeeze-out of remaining minority shareholders once all regulatory approvals are in place.

#2- Abu Dhabi startup eyes launching data centers in space: Abu Dhabi-based space startup Madari Space is looking to launch data centers in low earth orbit, with demo missions set to begin in 3Q 2026, CEO Shareef Al Romaithi told Bloomberg (watch, runtime: 5:38). The startup hopes to create alternative facilities in space that aren’t as energy-intensive as those on earth to cater to growing demand, Al Romaithi said. Madari is targeting businesses with existing space operations and governments seeking backup data storage options, he added.

#3- Syria to receive Azerbaijani natgas soon: Syria will import nearly 1.2 bn cbm of Azerbaijani natural gas annually starting 1 August — delivered through a natural gas pipeline via Turkey — in a bid to boost the country’s electricity output, Attaqa reports. Syria’s Energy Ministry signed an MoU earlier this month with the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (Socar) to import gas mainly for use by power plants in Aleppo and Homs, a supply expected to generate around 1.2-1.3k MW of electricity.

#4- Houthis expand target range, eye Israel-supporting firms: Yemen’s Houthis said they will now target any ships owned by firms that do business with Israeli ports — regardless of their nationalities or destinations, Reuters reports, citing a televised statement by the group’s military spokesperson. The Houthis warned companies to cease operations with Israel “if they want to avoid this escalation,” in an effort to pressure Israel to “halt its aggression and lift the blockade on the Gaza Strip.” The move puts one out of every six ships at risk of attack.

Is Israel already feeling the heat? The strategy could reshape the maritime ins. market for Israel-linked shippers, as ins. providers weigh severing war risk coverage for vessels with indirect links to Israeli ports. “Vessels are going to start to avoid calling at Israeli ports. It's not about getting hit by the Houthis, but the chance of not being insured,” a maritime security official told Middle East Eye last week.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices slipped in early morning trading following the EU souring on its US trade agreement, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures fell 0.1% to reach USD 69.98 / bbl, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures inched down 0.2% to trade at USD 66.60 / bbl.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ quota violators told to fall in line: The Opec+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee has asked member countries that have not met their output quotas to submit updated compensation plans by 18 August, reiterating the “critical importance” of full conformity and catch-up cuts, according to an official statement following its meeting.

IN CONTEXT- The committee — which does not have authority to set production levels — met to assess compliance and market conditions ahead of a separate 3 August meeting where eight Opec+ members are expected to decide on a 548k bbl/d output increase for September. This would mean that the cartel would fully unwind the latest 2.2 mn bbl/d production cut, and the UAE would have delivered its 300k bbl/d quota increase ahead of schedule.

PLUS: Saudi Arabia may raise its official selling prices (OSPs) for crude heading to Asia for a second consecutive month in September, with Arab Light set to hit a five-month high, Reuters reports, citing unnamed sources in the refining sector.

By the numbers: The Kingdom’s flagship Arab Light grade could see its September OSP rise by USD 0.9 to USD 1.05 / bbl from August levels, which is between USD 3.1-3.25 / bbl above the Oman/Dubai benchmark — its highest since April. The September OSPs for Arab Extra Light, Arab Medium, and Arab Heavy could also rise by USD 0.8-0.95 / bbl.

The drivers: Consumption in Asia remained robust, with Chinese refiners ramping up production this month to meet the 3Q rising demand and to replenish diesel and gasoline stocks, currently at multi-year lows. In the Middle East, domestic consumption continued growing during the summer, straining exports.

In August, Saudi Arabia raised Arab Light OSP by USD 1 per barrel for both Asian and European buyers after the 12-day armed conflict between Iran and Israel rattled markets.

#2- Baltic index dips once again: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — decreased 1.4% at 2,226 points on Monday. The capesize dropped 1.4% to 3,774 points, while the panamax index dipped 2.2% to 1,798 points. The smaller supramax index fell 0.4% to 1,289 points.

PSA-

Hapag-Lloyd to expand its services: Shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd released a new weekly Greta Shipping-operated service, the Jebel Ali-Karachi Express, to connect the Arabian Gulf and South Asia — set to include a rotation from the UAE’s Jebel Ali port to Karachi in Pakistan and back, according to a statement.

Hapag-Lloyd also updated its Kuwait Feeder Service rotation, starting from India’s Kandla to Jebel Ali, Kuwait’s Shuaiba and Shuwaikh then passing back through Jebel Ali and Kandla. Both service adjustments will be applicable from 13 August.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host the Africa Procurement & Supply Chain Leaders’ Conference on Monday, 25 August until Friday, 29 August in Dubai. The conference will host global industry leaders, policymakers and stakeholders to discuss how AI is changing procurement and supply chain efficiency, sustainability and risk management.

Oman will host Transport Middle East on Monday, 1 September until Wednesday, 3 September in Salalah. The conference will host 35 international speakers and over 50 exhibitors from the maritime sector to discuss global transportation and logistics.

Saudi Arabia will host the Sustainable Maritime Industry Conference on Wednesday, 3 and Thursday, 4 September in Jeddah. The event is set to gather over 60 speakers and more than 3k participants to discuss maritime decarbonization, digital transformation, regulatory frameworks, capacity building, and sustainable practices.

Algeria will host the Intra-African Trade Fair on Thursday, 4 September until Wednesday, 10 September in Algiers. The fair will host over 75 countries and 2k exhibitors across several sectors to explore investment prospects and exchange information on trade between B2B and B2G.

Oman will host the Comex Global Technology Show on Sunday, 7 September and run till Wednesday, 10 September in Muscat. The event will host over 360 participants and 133 tech startups to show achievements in eGovernment, fintech, smart cities, health tech, agritech and cybersecurity.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.