Good morning, ladies and gents. We have a somewhat brisk read this morning — but don’t let that fool you, regional tensions are still making their way into developed market supply chains. Hormuz and Red Sea tensions are beginning to throw just-in-time supply chains off balance — especially for vehicles and electronics that make up a bulk of GCC exports from at-risk ports.

Plus: Dubai Aerospace Enterprise is beefing up its firepower with USD 2.8 bn in new credit lines — doubling down on growth as the aviation cycle gathers pace.

Watch this space

M&A — Aramco is reportedly moving forward with the sale of a stake in its oil export and storage terminals, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The state giant had reportedly tapped Citigroup to advise on its potential multi-bn USD asset sale last November, which could fetch over USD 10 bn in proceeds.

The "business-as-usual" signal: Gulf states are pressing ahead with energy agreements to signal resilience despite the escalating regional conflict. Kuwait’s KPC is similarly moving to lease parts of its pipeline network, drawing interest from global private equity and infrastructure investors.

Oil flows shift after refinery hits: Refineries in both Saudi Arabia — particularly Ras Tanura — and Kuwait were struck in the past weeks, forcing Riyadh to divert crude through its East‑West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea. Both governments have reaffirmed that production remains a priority.

Ras Tanura — Aramco’s export architecture anchor: Aramco’s key export and storage infrastructure includes its main hub at Ras Tanura on the Arabian Gulf, with additional terminals on the Red Sea.

CUSTOMS –– Egypt slashes red tape for frustrated exporters. Egypt’s Finance Ministry has introduced temporary customs facilities to help exporters bring back shipments that can’t reach their final destinations due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and broader maritime instability in the Arabian Gulf. Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk confirmed that shipments forced to return without being unloaded — or those that never left territorial waters — will now be treated as “incomplete exports.”

The technical fix: These returned shipments are being reclassified as national goods that never officially left the country. Exporters are now exempt from the Advanced Cargo Information system for these goods, as they no longer carry foreign import status. The Customs Authority is also allowing these shipments to return to their original ports of entry and is canceling the impact of previously registered export data.

The fine print: These facilities apply to shipments returning within two months of their original export date. Clearing these returned shipments is now a top priority to reduce the financial burden on the private sector, Customs Authority head Ahmed Amwi said.

MARITIME — China joins Iran pay-to-pass route: A Chinese-owned feeder container vessel has paid to pass through Iran’s Larak Island corridor in Hormuz — marking the first confirmed mainland Chinese boxship to use Tehran’s new pay-to-pass system. The transit was arranged via a Chinese maritime intermediary, with over 20 other vessels now using the corridor under case-by-case approvals.

Access to Hormuz is conditional — and now monetized: Tehran is moving toward selectivegatekeeping — deciding which vessels and countries sail through, while forcing traffic closer to its coast and around Larak Island as conventional navigation conditions deteriorate.

However, Iran says Hormuz is open: Tehran said that “non-hostile vessels” may transit the Strait of Hormuz “in coordination with Iranian authorities,” in a letter to International Maritime Organization members. That said, some 3.2k vessels remain stuck in the Arabian Gulf, seemingly unwilling to brave the waterway yet.

Market watch

Oil prices fell nearly 4% this morning on ceasefire hopes after a US proposal to Iran to ease supply disruptions, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures declined USD 4.89 to USD 99.60 / bbl by 03.55 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped USD 3.54 to USD 88.81 / bbl.

The Baltic Index is on a downward spiral: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — was down 2.4% to 1,989 points on Tuesday. The capesize decreased 3.2% to 2,844 points, while the panamax index declined 2.6% to 1,839. The smaller supramax index slipped 0.3% to 1,215 points.

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