Good morning, nice people. The newscycle has picked up significantly as we head into the weekend, leaving us with an issue packed with M&A, debt, and intermodal logistics updates from around the region. But first, an update on the never-ending Trump tariffs…
THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY- Another day, another tariff: The US President Donald Trump has now said the US will hit Brazil with a 50% tariff — a large hike compared to the 10% reciprocal tariff announced earlier in April — in protest over what he calls a “witch hunt” against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. Trump — delivering the threat in a letter to Brazil — criticized the current trial and charges against Bolsonaro and demanded that he be allowed to run in the next election. Not stopping there, he also ordered an unfair trade practices probe into Brazil’s policies that could lead to further tariffs later.
Brazil responds: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva blasted Trump’s demands, saying that Brazil is ready to reciprocate the duties if they come into effect and pointing out that his country has an independent judiciary and a balanced trade sheet with the US.
This came hours after Trump also floated new sector-focused tariffs,threatening 50% duties on copper imports and up to 200% on pharma products.
This story grabbed a lot of attention in the press: Associated Press | Reuters | Bloomberg | Wall Street Journal | Financial Times | CNN | CNBC | Guardian | BBC
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- Houthis attacks send ins. premiums surging: War risk ins. premiums for vessels transiting the Red Sea have surged nearly to 1% (of the overall value of the ship) — up from 0.4% — after the recent deadly Houthi attacks, ins. broker Marsh McLennan’s head of marine and cargo Marcus Baker told the Financial Times. The surge means that ins. Average now could hit as much as USD 1 mn per voyage, jumping up from the previous average of USD 300k.
No sign of slowdown: Due to the quickly escalating nature of Houthi activity in the area, “it is expected that these rates [will] move further upwards if shipping continues to use the corridor for transit,” Baker added.
ON A RELATED NOTE- A mission is underway to rescue Eternity C’s crew after a series of Houthi attacks led to the sinking of the ship on Wednesday, killing four of the 25 people aboard, two security sources told Reuters. So far, seven crew members of the Greek-operated vessel have been pulled from the waters near the vessel, with 14 still missing and the Houthis claiming several hostages. The vessel was attacked again on Tuesday night — prompting the crew to jump in the water before the vessel sank, sources said.
ICYMI- This was the second attack on commercial ships in the waterway after more than six months of relative calm. Earlier this week, 22 people aboard the Magic Seas vessel were rescued by an AD Ports-operated vessel after Houthis attacked it with gunfire, rockets, and explosive-laden remote-controlled boats.
MEANWHILE FROM EGYPT- Suez Canal Authority head Osama Rabie held discussions with logistics services provider Arkas Egypt Shipping Industries and Turkish firm Alcor Shipping Line to increase transit for both companies’ vessels through the Suez Canal, according to a statement. The move is part of SCA’s effort to reinvigorate the flow of oil tankers and dry-bulk vessels between Asia and Europe through the canal in a bid to restore lost revenues after over a year of instability. The SCA was hoping for a full recovery by mid-year, but the latest return of Houthi attacks could dent the efforts.
#2- Cyprus’ UW Group is eyeing investments in the Port Said Shipyard to turn it into a global shipbuilding hub offering maintenance, repair, and green scrapping services. This came during a meeting between Suez Canal Authority (SCA) head Osama Rabie and a delegation from the ship repair and maintenance service provider UW Group, according to a statement from the authority. Both sides will study the proposed partnership and hold further meetings to discuss technical and economic aspects.
#3- Iraq is poised to become a net exporter of oil products after a series of refinery expansions become operational this year, Bloomberg reports, citing Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani. The transition — in the making for some time — is powered by expansions in the South Refineries Company’s refineries in Basra, Maysan, and Najaf, the news outlet reports. Baghdad will be expected to export less crude oil as refining capacity goes up, while reaching self-sufficiency and running into a net exporter for for refined products like gasoline.
Baghdad has moved to increase the Basra-based Diwaniya refinery’s processing capacity by 70k barrels per day (bbl/d), raising its overall capacity to 90k bbl/d, Iraqi News Agency reported earlier this week. The plant will reportedly produce refined oil products, including enhanced gasoline (meeting the Euro5 specifications), naphtha, kerosene, gas oil, black oil, and liquid gas.
#4- Airbus delivered a total of 306 commercial jets to customers in 1H 2025, an almost 5.6%y-o-y reduction from 1H 2024, according to company data (pdf). The company delivered 63 commercial jets to 35 customers in June — up from 51 deliveries in May. It also secured 494 orders in 1H — or 404 orders after counting cancellations.
On a regional level: Regional players — whether via airlines or leasing firms — have placed orders for at least 81 Airbus jets, with AviLease ordering 10 A350 freighters. About 26 orders were delivered to regional airlines, including seven for Turkish Airlines, five for Emirates and Flynas each, four for Royal Jordanian, three for Kuwait Airlines, and one each for Saudia and Etihad.
Meanwhile, Boeing deliveries are still trailing behind despite a robust y-o-y improvement, with a total of 280 commercial airplanes in 1H 2025, according to a statement. The figure represents 60% y-o-y rise in deliveries, in our calculation, from just 175 jets during the same time last year. The number of new orders for 1H 2025 was not disclosed, but the firm said it will release a more detailed dataset later this month.
MARKET WATCH-
#1- Oil prices saw a slight dip this morning amid uncertainty over the global economic outlook following the US latest tariff threats, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures declined by USD 0.03 to USD 70.16 a barrel by 04.01 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose by USD 0.06 to trade at USD 68.32 a barrel. The size of the drop was curtailed by signs of strong demand from the US.
Meanwhile, oil markets are absorbing additional Opec+ barrels without a notable buildup in inventories, signaling sustained demand, Reuters reports, citing comments made by the UAE’s Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei.
REMEMBER- It was reported that the latest output boost from Opec+ of 548k barrels per day for August could tip global oil markets into a surplus later this year. However, some analysts believe the real supply impact will be more muted.
Another hike incoming? Another hike of 550k barrels per day for September is looking likely when the group meets on 3 August, sources told Reuters. The group previously said that production targets will depend on market conditions.
#2- Baltic index snaps upward streak: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — fell 0.6% to 1,423 points on Wednesday, buoyed by lower rates in the large segments. The capesize fell 5.5% to 1,654 points, while the panamax was up 3.3% to 1,621 points. The small supramax index inched up 2.3% points to settle at 1,151.
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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-
Intermodal Africa will kick off on Tuesday, 22 July and run till Thursday, 24 July in Beira, Mozambique. The forum will host over 300 senior government officials, industry leaders, academics, senior executives, and harbor masters in the ports, shipping, and logistics sector. Attendees and speakers will be coming from countries across the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
Transport Middle East 2025 will kick off on Monday, 1 September and will run till Wednesday, 3 September in Salalah, Oman. The conference will host 35 international speakers and over 50 exhibitors from the maritime sector to discuss global transportation and logistics.
The Sustainable Maritime Industry Conference will take place on 3-4 September at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Jeddah. The event is set to gather over 60 speakers and more than 3k participants to discuss maritime decarbonization, digital transformation, regulatory frameworks, capacity building, and sustainable practices.
Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.




