Good morning, folks. We’re kicking off the week with big investment news from the UAE and Egypt that spill over into boosting exports. First, there’s more trouble brewing and being squashed as US ports grapple to continue running smoothly…

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY- Crisis averted on the US coastline: US ports have averted a second strike after reaching an agreement with labor unions on Thursday, with the two sides reaching a tentative consensus on a new six-year contract. The exact terms of the contract have not been made public. The two sides will continue to operate under the current agreement until the new document is ratified.

What we know: The agreement includes a resolution on automation, which had been a heavily disputed topic between the two sides. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) had pushed for a rollback of the language on automation, while the companies represented by the United States Maritime Alliance argued that port modernization is crucial to keep US ports competitive.

REFRESHER- The ILA had said it would call a port strike if the pair did not land a new contract by 15 January. Shippers started bypassing ports on the US East Coast and Gulf of Mexico last October over fears of another strike, which would have impacted USD bns in trade and increased inflationary pressures. A three-day ILA port strike resulted in a spike in shipping prices and cargo backlogs at 36 impacted ports back in October.

The story grabbed a lot on ink in the int’l press over the weekend: Reuters | Bloomberg | AP News | The Washington Post | CNN | The Guardian | Politico | CBS News | The New York Times

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Saudi Arabia + Latin America to explore logistics zones collaboration: Saudi Arabia is mulling setting up joint logistics zones with Latin America to enhance trade cooperation and overcome logistics hurdles between the two parties, VP of the Executive Committee of the Saudi-Latin American Business Council Waad bint Abdulaziz Abu Nayan told Al Eqtisadiah.

The aim: The zones will address challenges posed by the great distance between Saudi Arabia and Latin America, which can lead to supply chain delays, Abu Nayan said. The most attractive sectors for Saudi investors in Latin America include food products, renewable energy, and mining, she added.

#2- Malaysia looks to double down on trade with GCC: The Malaysian cabinet gave the go-ahead for the formal start of negotiations with the GCC over a possible trade agreement between the two parties, Malaysia’s Investment, Trade and Industry Minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz told Asharq Business last week (watch, runtime: 10:16). Investment between GCC and ASEAN countries had increased five-fold in the past five years, according to Aziz, who highlighted a need for Malaysia to diversify its trading partners.

REMEMBER- The move comes ahead of Malaysia’s formal signing of the comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) with UAE this week during Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s visit to Abu Dhabi, Aziz said. The agreement is also slated to look into furthering cooperation and investment potential in the fields of data centers and artificial intelligence.

#3- US expands crackdown on Russian oil exports: The US Treasury Department rolled out new sanctions targeting dozens of oil traders and more than 180 tankers that have moved Russian oil over the past year, as well as Russian oil producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, according to a statement released on Friday. The sanctions also included ins. companies, oilfield service providers, and energy officials, with two US service companies warned to exit the Russia-linked trade.

Switching supply points: Chinese and Indian refiners — which took over Europe as major importers of Russian oil and natural gas — are expected to shift their oil sourcing away from Russia to producers from Africa, the Middle East, and the Americas, Reuters reports, citing industry experts. Indian state refiners purchased up to 6 mn barrels of Oman and Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude for February loading. Chinese buyers such as Sinopec subsidiary Unipec, have also boosted imports of Abu Dhabi oil, Bloomberg reports.

What’s at stake for global oil markets? US President Joe Biden’s final salvo at Russia could reduce a supply surplus of some 1 mn oil barrels per day, as the targeted firms shipped 970k barrels per day at sea in 2024, Bloomberg reports.

Russia fires back and stays the course: Moscow announced it will remain active in the oil and gas sector and denounced the sanctions, which it says risk “destabilizing world markets,” Reuters reported on Saturday, citing a government statement. The shift is expected to force Russia to trade its oil at lower prices below the price cap imposed by the US and its allies in the wake of the Ukraine war.

Serbia caught in the crossfire: The sanctions will hit Serbia’s only oil refining company Nafta Industrija Srbije, which is 56.2% owned by the sanctioned Russian company Gazprom with stakes worth just over USD 1 bn, Bloomberg and Asharq Business reported. The country may resort to buying the company’s stakes in cash to avoid the expected disruptions in local oil production, Asharq reported, citing the Serbian President.

MARKET REAX- Oil prices continued to rise this morning for the third straight session in response to the news, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures gained USD 1.48 to USD 81.24 a barrel by GMT 01.13 while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose USD 1.53 to USD 78.10 a barrel.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Saudi Arabia is set to dial back its crude oil shipments to China in February, cutting allocations to an estimated 43.5 mn barrels, down from January’s three-month high of 46 mn barrels, Reuters reported on Thursday. Key Chinese refiners including state-owned CNOOC and PetroChina, and privately-held Hengli, are set to take fewer barrels, even as Sinopec and Sinochem reportedly move to increase their deliveries.

Tightening the faucet: The move comes as Aramco raises the official selling price for its flagship Arab Light crude to Asian buyers, which is now being sold at a premium of USD 1.50 a barrel to the regional benchmark — up USD 0.60. OPEC+’ decision early last month to extend production cuts through to 1Q 2025 also implies tighter supplies going forward.

#2- Aramco, Sonatrach cut LPG prices amid low demand: Saudi Aramco and Algeria’s state-owned Sonatrach have cut January’s LPG prices by 1.6% to 6% due to weak demand, Reuters reported last week, citing fuel traders. Aramco cut prices for propane by USD 10 to USD 625 a ton and butane by USD 15 to USD 615. Sonatrach cut prices for propane by USD 35 to USD 550 and for butane by USD 25 to USD 560.

#3- Baltic index maintains upward trajectory: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — surged 8.2% to 1,049 points on Friday. The capesize index increased 284 points to 1,448, while the panamax index fell 39 points to 953. The smaller supramax index shed 11 points to 830.

#4- The Drewry World Container Index increased 2% to USD 3,986 per 40-ft container on Thursday, according to the latest index readings. Spot rates for 40-ft containers are now 62% below the previous pandemic peak, but remain 181% above the pre-pandemic rate of USD 1.4k. The average composite index YTD is USD 3,946 per 40ft container, which is USD 1,040 higher than the 10-year average rate of USD 2,867.

DATA POINT-

#1- Iran’s Bushehr Port saw 35% y-o-y growth in container goods handled in 9M of the Iranian calendar year (20 March- 21 December 2024), reaching 53k TEUs, Tehran Times reports. Bushehr handled c.175 mn tons of cargo in 9M. The port unloaded 20.83 mn tons of oil goods and 39.55 mn tons of non-oil goods, and loaded 58.84 mn tons of oil goods and 55.77 mn tons of non-oil goods during the same time period.

ALSO- Iran’s oil exports were high in 2024 despite US sanctions, increasing 10.75% y-o-y to 587 mn barrels, driven by Opec+ cuts and slow enforcement of sanctions, Baird Maritime reported last week. Iran’s exports to EAEU countries increased 20.7% y-o-y to USD 1.49 mn, reaching 3.85 mn tons, a 21.6% y-o-y increase, primarily exporting to Russia, Armenia, and Kazakhstan, Tehran Times reports. Iran imported USD 1.2 bn worth of goods from EAEU countries in 9M 2024, a 19.16% y-o-y decrease.

#2- Airbus delivered 766 commercial aircraft in 2024, the manufacturer said in a pressrelease published last week. The Commercial Aircraft division secured 878 new gross orders, bringing its year-end backlog for 2024 to 8.6k aircraft.

#3- Egypt’s wheat imports increased 31% y-o-y to 14.2 mn tons in 2024, its highest level in 10 years, Asharq Business reported on Sunday, citing an official document it has seen. The boost came on the back of the increased availability of greenbacks and a dip in average global wheat prices to USD 240 per ton. Russia made up 74% of total imports, totaling nearly 10.5 mn tons, followed by Ukraine with 1.9 mn tons, accounting for 13% of the total imports.

PSA-

Truckers in Saudi Arabia’s Taif governorate must avoid Al Sayl Al Kabeer road on Thursdays and Saturdays from 2-8 pm due to maintenance works, the Public Security said on X on Friday. The ban will remain in place until Friday, 28 February.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Belgium will host the World Cargo Summit from Monday, 27 January to Wednesday, 29 January in Ostend. The event will focus on air cargo economics, strategy, and market trends with a specific focus on how the industry will tackle disruptions and how firms can adapt their business models.

The UAE will host the ShipTek International Conference from Wednesday, 29 January to Thursday 30 January in Dubai. The two-day conference will gather industry experts, including managing director at Hapag-Lloyd Carolin Stumm, CEO Adani Ports Nicolai Friis, VP International Maritime Industries Justin Taylor, CEO Tristra Tim Coffin, and others to discuss new tech and developments in the maritime industry.

The UAE will host the Middle East Bunkering Convention from Monday, 3 February to Wednesday, 5 February in Dubai. The event will focus on the marine fuels sector to address the future of the industry in light of geopolitical issues, environmental regulation, and the future of artificial intelligence and digitalization.

Saudi Arabia will host the Airport Expansion Conference from Tuesday, 4 February to Wednesday, 5 February in Riyadh. The two-day conference will feature over 30 speakers to discuss challenges faced by Saudi Airports and highlight Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 with a clear focus on expansion, tech, and strategic partnerships.

The UAE will host the Middle East Breakbulk Conference from Monday, 10 February to Tuesday, 11 February in Dubai. The event gathers giant manufacturers, EPCs, and service providers to discuss the latest solutions in breakbulk and heavy-lift logistics across the Middle East and Africa. The two-day event features an artificial intelligence (AI) seminar, heavy lift workshop, chartering workshop, and a women in breakbulk panel.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.