Good morning, ladies and gents. We have a mixed bag of updates on a relatively calm news day. There’s some finance updates coming in from the UAE and Tunisia, along with a potential IPO hitting the ADX courtesy of Agility. Across the pond, only one story is still making waves…

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY OUTSIDE THE REGION- Baltimore continues to dominate the news cycle: Salvage crews lifted the first piece of the collapsed Baltimore Francis Scott Key Bridge on Saturday allowing tugboats and barges entry to the Port of Baltimore after a Maersk-chartered container ship collided with the bridge last Tuesday causing fatalities. A timeline for clearance work to remove a section of the bridge's steel to make room for a restricted channel to let other vessels move around the site will take some days, Maryland Governor Wes Moore said. The US government has awarded an initial UDS 60 mn in emergency funds to clear debris, and for the rebuilding of the bridge on Thursday. It is still deemed “too soon to be certain,” for how long it could take to reopen the port and restore the highway bridge over the Patapsco river.

The Port of Baltimore could take some six weeks to reopen with the automotive and engineering manufacturing sectors being impacted the most, DHL president of transportation Jim Monkmeyer told Bloomberg on Wednesday. Congestion in the East Coast ports is expected to increase in Norfolk, Virginia, and New York-New Jersey, with Norfolk particularly as it is the easiest to get to. The collapse could cost ins.’rs USD bns in claims —- up to some USD 4 bn, analysts say, depending on the length, blockage, and nature of the business interruption. Closure of the port for a month could lead to some USD 28 mn in losses according to economic software IMPLAN’s analysis.

Shipping giant Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) is diverting containers bound for Baltimore to alternative ports, saying the “passage to and from Baltimore is impossible.” Other carriers including CMA CGM, Cosco, and Evergreen have also carried out similar moves, in some cases declaring force majeure clauses. The diversions are adding some five days to delivery times on ground modes of transport. The ports of New York and New Jersey are working with industry partners to ensure supply chain continuity in the East Coast, and truckers are also anticipated to take loads in and out of the region at elevated prices.

Supply chains will adjust, S&P Global Market Intelligence Peter Tirschwell told CNBC on Thursday (watch, runtime: 3:35), with the overall impact to supply chains and trade flows being “fairly minimal.” Baltimore is close to several other ports, all of which saw declines in volume last year, indicating there is capacity available. Although the port of Baltimore is a large hub for the automotive sector, LNG, and coal, it is not the only port that handles these cargoes, Tirschwell commented.

The story continued to grab a lot of ink in the international press: Reuters | AP | The Financial Times | The New York Times | Bloomberg | CNBC | Wall Street Journal | The Washington Post | CNN | BBC

#1- New rules for online delivery services are going into effect across Saudi Arabia today. The regulations from the Transport General Authority (TGA) require a gradual phaseout of self-employment for non-Saudis at online delivery services. Only citizens will be allowed to work as self-employed couriers. Non-Saudi drivers have 14 months to find work with light transport firms and other delivery providers.

#2- Temporary road closure in Abu Dhabi: Abu Dhabi’s Maitha Bint Mohammed Al Ain Street is partially closed until 21 April, the Integrated Transport Center (ITC) said on X last Friday.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- QatarEnergy has finalized a charter contract for 19 LNG vessels with several Asian ship owners in a move to boost its LNG output, Reuters reports. The firm has inked contracts to charter six vessels from CMES LNG Carrier Investment, six vessels from Shandong Marine Energy, and three vessels from MISC Berhad. Four vessels will also be operated by a JV between Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha and Hyundai Glovis. QatarEnergy inked a time-charter party agreement with Qatar Gas Transport Company Limited (Nakilat) last month for the operation of 25 conventional size LNG vessels as part of the second ship-owner tender under QatarEnergy’s LNG Fleet Expansion program.

#2- Riyadh Air will take delivery of its first aircraft in 1Q 2025 and will launch commercial operations in the first half of 2025, Osama Al-Nuwaiser, vice-president of marketing and corporate communications told Aleqtisadiah on Thursday. Some 39 787-9 Dreamliners — out of 72 ordered — will be delivered next year, Al-Nuwaiser added. The airline, a unit of the Public Investment Fund, will unveil its list of destinations in the first half of 2025.

Background: The PIF’s flagship carrier has a target of serving 100 destinations by 2030. PIF is said to be looking to acquire 100% of Saudia, the current national flag carrier, raising the possibility of a merger with Riyadh Air.

IN OTHER KSA AVIATION NEWS-The first international flight into Red Sea International Airport (RSI) will touch down next month. Operated by Flydubai, the Thursday, 18 April, landing will be the first on a new twice-weekly route linking Dubai International (DXB) to RSI, according to a statement released on Thursday. State-owned airline Saudia has been running domestic flights to RSI since September 2023. “RSI will serve 1 mn guests a year at full capacity,” said RSG CEO, John Pagano.

#3- Egypt to restart LNG exports imports starting next month? The Madbouly government is reportedly considering buying LNG from outside the country to hedge against potential energy shortages ahead of the summer season after having just restarted exports — albeit in much reduced quantities — this winter, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing sources with knowledge of the matter. Inquiries have reportedly been made to launch deliveries starting next month through the summer using Jordan’s LNG import terminal in Aqaba, with plans to eventually have its own terminal.

This wasn’t the plan: After becoming a net exporter of LNG in 2018, Egypt has been trying to position itself an important LNG exporter to Europe and to fully utilize the 12 mn tons a year capacity from its two liquefaction plants in Damietta and Idku. However, a fall in domestic gas production and a rise in domestic demand coupled with an unusually hot summer and Israel temporarily halting gas supplies has derailed its plans. LNG exports dropped 52% y-o-y to 3.52 mn tons in 2023.

#4- Roboost wants to step foot in the Gulf: AI-powered logistics startup Roboost is looking to expand into the Saudi and Emirati markets during 2Q 2024, as it looks to expand its footstep across the region, co-founder and CEO Mohamed Gessraha reportedly told Al Mal last week. The Egypt-born startup said it had raised USD 3 mn in an investment round led by Jordan-based VC Silicon Badia last January and planned to use the funds to to scale up its business “across the MENA region’s entire delivery market.”

#5- The US warns nations against using Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline: Washington does not support efforts to establish an Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, dubbed Peace Pipeline, and has warned states that trade with Iran risk sanctions, Reuters reported last week, citing US officials. “We do not support this pipeline going forward,” a US State Department spokesperson said. The pipeline, which looks to move natural gas from Iran to Pakistan, was part of efforts to boost bilateral trade between both countries, but has faced delays and inadequate funding, the newswire said. Pakistan had been trying to obtain a sanctions waiver from the US in order to go ahead with the project, Reuters cited Pakistan’s Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik as saying last week.

ON A SIMILAR NOTE- Iraq’s Electricity Ministry has inked a five-year agreement with an Iranian company to supply gas, INA reported last week. The contract sees Iraq importing up to 50 mn cubic meters of gas daily, with volumes dependent on Iraq’s electricity production needs.

ICYMI- The US has extended a 120-day waiver allowing Iraq to purchase electricity from Iran, without falling under the purview of US sanctions, continuing a policy it kicked off last year, Al Arabiya reported earlier this month, citing a US State Department spokesperson. Proceeds from the sales can only be used by Iran for “non-sanctionable transactions,” such as the purchase of food and agricultural products.

IN MORE SANCTION NEWS- Russian oil firms are waiting to recoup payments: Russian oil firms are facing delays of up to several months for payments for crude and fuel as Chinese, Turkish and Emirati banks exercise more caution over Russia-related transactions in a bid to avoid secondary sanctions, Reuters reported last week, citing sources with knowledge of the matter. Banks have boosted checks, requested additional documentations, and trained staff to ensure that transactions were compliant with the G7 mandated price cap, with the additional checks incurring delays of up to two months, the newswire writes.

Oman’s waters are becoming a focal point for ship-to-ship (STS) transfers of Russian crude bound for India, Bloomberg reported last week. STS crude transfers are often done to obscure cargo origins, with Oman and Fujairah standing as common sites for transfers in the region, Bloomberg added. India was a major importer of Russian oil, doubling down on discounts after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but US sanctions have limited oil trade between Russia and India. The uptick in Russian tankers performing transfers off of Oman’s coast could be indicative of a workaround being pursued by Indian importers, in a bid to have Russian oil cargoes shifted from sanctioned vessels and delivered to their shores aboard compliant tankers, lead crude analyst at Kpler, Viktor Katona, said.

#6- Dubai-based port operator DP World plans to increase its container handling capacity to some 102.6 mn TEUs by year’s end, up from 95 mn TEUs in 2023, via a string of investments across its worldwide asset’s portfolio, Emirates Today reported last week, citing a document it has seen. The firm will add around 1 mn TEUs to its operations in Jeddah, 900k TEU at London Gateway, and 400k TEUs each at South Korea’s Busan Port and India’s Cochin Port. A further 3 mn containers will be added to DP World’s capacity in China, with boosted capacity also rolling out at Egypt’s Ain Sokhna, Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam, Canada’s Vancouver, Peru’s Callao, and Belgium, the report said.

#7- The World Trade Organization (WTO) says tariffs on digital products will hit businesses and consumers starting 2026, WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told The Financial Times last week. A 30-year global tariff exemption on products including online films and software downloads is set to expire in 2026 and would need unanimity among member states to be extended. “I don’t think the membership is prepared to continue arguing over this every couple of years. So they’ve agreed on this date. It sends a signal to businesses on what they need to do,” Okonjo-Iweala told FT.

The current state of affairs: Developing countries including India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and South Africa are pushing against an extension, arguing tax revenue loss as most digital products are imported from richer countries. The EU, China, the US, and the majority of South American nations are among some 80 countries negotiating a voluntary moratorium, the newswire says.

DISRUPTION WATCH-

US Central Command (Centcom) destroyed four long-range unmanned aerial systems (UAS) launched by Houthis on Wednesday, Centcom said on X last week. The UAS targeted a US warship, and “presented an imminent threat” to commercial shipping and US Navy vessels in the region, Centcom said.

Houthis could call on help from Iran and Somali pirates to follow through on their threat to extend attacks to merchant vessels into the Indian Ocean, S&P Global reported last week, citing security specialists. “We perceive the threats to be credible on the basis that until now, the Houthis have generally followed through on the threats they have issued,” head of maritime security at BIMCO, Jakob Larsen, told the outlet. An expanded Houthi threat area could reach as far south as Tanzania, and stretch eastward well into the Indian Ocean, with some of the group’s drones boasting a 2.5k km range, security firm Ambrey said. Ambrey also adds that the Houthis have long range missiles, but these are unlikely to be equipped with the guidance required to accurately target moving ships, Larsen said.

What would a Houthi collaboration with Somali pirates and Iran look like? A recent resurgence of Somali piracy reveals “a high level of coordination between the Houthis and Somali pirates,” Dryad Global analyst Scarlett Suarez said. A partnership could see the Houthis employ Somali pirate vessels as forward bases to conduct attacks by seaborne drones, Ambrey said. Meanwhile, Iran could attack vessels in the Indian Ocean, with the Houthis claiming responsibility for those hits, Ambrey added.

The West’s mission to protect shipping in the Red Sea has failed to put a stop to Houthi-led attacks, and trade routes continue to be interrupted, Bloomberg reported last week. Despite some success in degrading Houthi abilities to attack, continued Iranian intelligence and financial backing makes it difficult to predict when attacks will come to a halt, Admiral Marc Miguez, who commands a US Navy carrier strike group patrolling the region, told the outlet. The slowdown in attacks has also done little to allay shippers fears, “It is either safe for our people or it is not, as long as it is not safe we will not send our people through the Red Sea,” Bloomberg cites Hapag Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen as saying.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices surged by over USD 1 per barrel last Thursday driven by expectations that OPEC+ will uphold production cuts, continued attacks on Russia's energy facilities, and a drop in US rig counts, Reuters reported. Brent crude futures inched up 1.6% to USD 87.48 a barrel, hitting its highest level since 27 October, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gained 2.2% to USD 83.17 a barrel. Brent futures for June increased USD 1.58 to USD 87 a barrel. "We expect US inventories to rise less than normal in reflection of a global oil market in a slight deficit," SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop told Reuters. "This will likely hand support to the Brent crude oil price going forward.”

OPEC+ members are unlikely to alter output volumes before a June meeting, with no important decisions expected in an upcoming meeting early next month, OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week, ahead of an online joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting scheduled for Wednesday. OPEC+, which groups OPEC members, Russia, and other allies, agreed earlier this month to extend voluntary output cuts into this year’s second quarter, the newswire said.

#2- US crude oil fell to 12.5 mn barrels per day in January, a 6% drop from a record high in December on the back of a severe winter storm capping oil production and closing Texas refineries, Reuters reported on Friday, citing data from the Energy Information Administration. Crude oil production in Texas, the US’ leading oil-producing state, declined by 5% to 5.4 mn bpd during the month, while North Dakota saw a nearly 13% decrease in production to 1.1 mn bdp, according to the data.

#3- Baltic index sees biggest fall in over two months: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — was down 1.3% to 1,821 points on Thursday, its lowest point since 22 February, driven by weakened rates across all segments, Reuters reported on Friday. The larger capesize subindex dropped 1 point to 2,637, and fell more than 24% for the week, while panamax dipped 3.2% to 1,879 points, hitting its largest weekly decline since 2 February. Meanwhile, the smaller supramax segment fell 22 points to 1,331 points.

#4- Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) fell 3% to USD 2.9k per 40-foot container for the week ending Thursday, but was up 71% when compared to the same period last year, maritime research and consultancy firm Drewry reported on Thursday. The latest WCI index is also 106% greater than the average 2019 pre-pandemic rate of USD 1.4k and USD 709 higher than the 10-year average rate of USD 2.7k.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host the 7th edition of the Global Ports Forum on Sunday, 17 April and Monday, 18 April in Dubai. The event will host discussions on port strategy and development, automation, financing, and enhancing efficiency.

Egypt will host the 5th edition of the Egypt Facility Management Forum on Tuesday, 23 April and Wednesday, 24 April in Cairo. Business-owners, developers, service providers, technology leaders and suppliers will attend seminars and exhibitions on the facility management supply chain.

The UAE will host Abu Dhabi Mobility Week from Wednesday, 24 April to Wednesday, 1 May in Abu Dhabi. The event, organized by The Department of Municipalities and Transport – Abu Dhabi (DMT), will feature announcements, forums, and introduce a mobility strategy for the emirate.

Iran will host the second Iran-Africa International Summitfrom Wednesday, 24 April through to Friday, 26 April in Tehran. The event will see Iran receive trade ministers from more than 40 African countries.

Saudi Arabia will host a special World Economic Forum event from Sunday, 28 April through to Monday, 29 April in Riyadh. The event will focus on global collaboration and energy.

Qatar will host the Autonomous E-mobility Forum from Tuesday, 30 April to Thursday, 2 May in Doha. The event will gather industry experts, senior officials, policy and technology experts, as well as government, academic, and media representatives, providing a platform for stakeholders to exchange know-how and recommendations for the implementation of autonomous e-mobility in the real-world.

Saudi Arabia will host the Saudi Smart Logistics exhibition and summit from Monday, 6 May to Thursday, 9 May in Riyadh. International and local businessmen, industry professionals, leaders, and sellers will showcase their innovative logistics solutions.

The UAE will host the Airport Show from Tuesday, 14 May through to Thursday, 16 May in Dubai. The 23rd Airport Show will see representation from airport suppliers, airport service providers, aviation executives, and regional decision makers. The event will highlight current innovations and new technologies, while emphasizing this year’s "Sustainability and Innovation," theme.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.