Good morning, folks. Not every morning needs fireworks — this one's a calm, brisk read. Egypt is accelerating a six-pipeline expansion just as its petroleum sector is hitting its stride. Fuel exports have already matched all of last year's volumes in just six months, making the timing of the investment hard to ignore. Plus: Elsewedy Industrial Development signed on as the Golden Triangle zone's first industrial developer, eyeing a 6 mn sqm site in Safaga.

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Cape fear over chokepoint risk

Six Saudi-flagged supertankers reroute around Africa: Six Saudi-flagged supertankers, operated by Bahri, have changed course in the Gulf of Aden and are heading to southern Africa rather than transiting the blockaded Bab Al Mandab and the southern Red Sea, Reuters reports, citing ship-tracking data.

A 25-day detour: The vessels, sailing empty after returning from Asia, appear to have rerouted in response to Houthi threats against Saudi shipping, trade sources told the newswire. The longer route could add at least 25 days to voyages that would otherwise return to Saudi Red Sea ports via the Suez Canal, Reuters calculations showed.

IN CONTEXT- The rerouting follows the Houthis’ Saudi-targeted blockade of Bab Al Mandab and attacks on Saudi-linked vessels that expanded the Red Sea’s high-risk ins. zone. Maritime security firm Ambrey also classified ships calling at Saudi ports as high risk.

Not everyone is avoiding the route: Two tankers carrying a combined 3 mn barrels of Saudi crude managed to cross Bab Al Mandab over the weekend despite the blockade.

Crude exports fell in July: The Kingdom’s crude exports amounted to around 4.2 mn bbl / d last month, an m-o-m drop of 460k barrels, according to tanker data by Bloomberg. When accounting for cargoes loaded onto ships that remain trapped inside the Arabian Gulf, the m-o-m drop amounts to 230k barrels, a markedly less drastic difference.

Baghdad foots the freight

Iraq is cutting prices deep to keep Basrah crude moving. State oil marketer Somo is offering term buyers price cuts of USD 25-27 / bbl for August-loading Basrah Medium and USD 27.8-29.8 / bbl for Basrah Heavy, depending on the loading window, Reuters reports, citing a company document. The cargoes are sold on an FOB basis from the Basrah Oil Terminal or Iraq's offshore single-point moorings, all located inside the Gulf.

The price cut is compensation for the voyage risk: Somo is selling on a loading basis, leaving buyers to arrange their own vessels and carry the freight and transit exposure themselves. That remains a real deterrent — visible commodity-vessel traffic through Hormuz fell to 10 crossings on Saturday from 19 on Friday following three reported tanker attacks, though the Noble VLCC successfully exited on Friday carrying around 2 mn barrels of Iraqi crude to China.

Baghdad has tested a more hands-on workaround: TotalEnergies has been chartering VLCCs itself and offering Basrah Medium and Heavy to Asian refiners on delivered terms, moving the vessel-arrangement hurdle away from buyers. Iraq’s land alternatives haven’t provided much relief as its initial crude route through Syria was expected to handle around 50k bbl / d — roughly 1.5% of Iraq’s pre-war southern exports.

Market watch

Oil prices rebounded 1% this morning as fears of prolonged Middle East supply disruptions resurfaced, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures increased USD 1.12 to USD 84.89 / bbl by 03.55 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained USD 0.77 to USD 81.11 / bbl.

MEANWHILE- Saudi Aramco has raised its official August selling prices for LPG by 6-7% on stronger demand, traders told Reuters on Friday. The state producer lifted propane by USD 40 a ton to USD 620 and butane by the same margin to USD 640. Aramco’s monthly LPG prices are widely used as a benchmark for Middle East LPG exports to the Asia-Pacific market.

The Baltic Index nudges upward: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — was up 4.1% to 2,843 points on Monday. The capesize index jumped 6.2% to 4,564 points, while the panamax increased 2.3% to 2,135 points. The smaller supramax was at 1,610 points.

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