Adnoc set to fast-track West-East pipeline expansion as it braces for supply chain disruptions

The UAE's bypass infrastructure is turning into a core export strategy: Adnoc is accelerating plans to boost the amount of crude it can export from Fujairah, increasing oil flows outside the Strait of Hormuz in a project that could nearly double the UAE’s bypass export capacity by next year, the company said in a statement over the weekend. The project is currently under construction.

We already knew about the pipeline: Adnoc previously said it was developing a USD 3 bn,1.5 mn bbl / d crude oil pipeline to link its Ruwais Jebel Dhanna terminal with Fujairah, scheduled for completion next year.

The existing Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, known as the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (Adcop), already forms the backbone of the UAE’s alternative export infrastructure. The pipeline can currently transport up to 1.8 mn bbl / d from Abu Dhabi’s oil fields to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, with the expanded system set to nearly double capacity to 3.3 mn bbl / d.

Fast fact: This would still be around half of what Saudi Arabia can export outside Hormuz via its own East-West pipeline network, which can move around 7 mn bbl / d to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, with 5 mn bbl / d earmarked for export.

The expansion could reshape which grades the UAE can reroute: During the disruptions, Adnoc exported most of its flagship Murban crude through Adcop, but expanded capacity could eventually exceed Murban production. This gives Adnoc the land-based capacity to reroute other grades, such as Upper Zakum, through Fujairah. While this significantly extends optionality for some of the UAE’s most commercially vital export barrels, further infrastructure upgrades would be required.

It also comes as Adnoc plans to ramp up production capacity in the wake of its exit from Opec. Without Opec’s production quotas, the UAE might hit 6 mn bbl / d of capacity in the medium term if it accelerates investments in oil and gas, according to some analyst estimates. Adnoc has been planning to boost capacity to 5 mn bbl / d by next year for a few years now, up from a current capacity of around 4.6-4.9 mn bbl / d.

In another hedge

The UAE and India are also building redundancy through storage. Adnoc agreed to increase its crude storage presence in India to as much as 30 mn barrels — nearly triple the roughly 11 mn barrels-equivalent it already leases there through India’s strategic reserve system, according to a statement. The two countries are also exploring potential crude storage agreements in Fujairah, as part of India’s strategic reserve system.

Not the first country to eye Emirati crude stockpiles: Japan secured a commitment from the UAE earlier this month to increase joint crude oil stockpiles, while South Korea enjoys a storage agreement with Adnoc that gives the company access to storage in Northeast Asia.

The logic is the same as the pipeline push — distribute risk before the next disruption hits. Strategic reserves are increasingly treated less as static emergency stockpiles and more as geographically flexible logistics tools. This shift allows operators to position barrels closer to alternative routes, refining centers, and safer export corridors outside immediate chokepoint exposure.

Doubling down on Fujairah: Recent attacks and drone strikes have periodically disrupted local operations, dragging the UAE’s estimated oil export revenue down by more than USD 174 mn y-o-y in March amid slumping bunkering demand and minimal ship-to-ship transfers. Against this backdrop, Fujairah is increasingly being treated as critical infrastructure, with Abu Dhabi firmly positioning the port at the center of its long-term resiliency strategy and folding it into Asia’s energy security architecture.

The Gulf’s “portfolio of corridors” era is here

This is how Gulf energy trade is being reorganized around chokepoint resilience: We argued a month ago that the region is moving away from dependence on a single optimal route and toward a “portfolio of corridors” model built around redundancy, inland logistics, storage, pipelines, and alternative ports.

It also says something about how exporters view risk: Oil exporters used to optimize around the shortest and cheapest route to market, but the new model prioritizes survivability under stress, even if it costs more with less capacity.