Good morning, ladies and gents. We have a brisk read this morning — and a short break from disruption-led issues. However, despite Iran's strikes on the UAE, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has maintained that the truce still holds. President Donald Trump announced a “short” pause in US escort missions through Hormuz pending a possible agreement — even as Maersk’s Alliance Fairfax just completed the first military-guarded commercial transit out of the Gulf.

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TRADE — Egypt’s Investment Ministry just slapped a USD 90 per ton export fee on all nitrogen fertilizers for the next three months, according to a decree published in the Official Gazette. Together with the natural gas price hike, these moves squeeze producers by simultaneously raising domestic production costs — roughly 70% of which is attributed to natgas — and taxing their final outbound shipments.

Why it matters: One of two things is in play here. Behind door number one: The Egyptian government wants a larger slice of the windfalls local exporters are generating amid global supply chain shocks. With Hormuz closed, Egyptian producers are filling the global gap and charging buyers up to USD 890 per ton for urea — nearly double the pre-crisis price. Behind door number two: Food security concerns. Policymakers aim to keep more fertilizer at home to hedge against any further downstream price shocks.

ENERGY — QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on its LNG supply until mid-June as the strait remains effectively shut to tanker traffic, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. “They are giving the understanding that as soon as the situation normalizes, they will start the operations and they will start supplying the gas,” India’s Petronet Managing Director Akshay Kumar Singh said.

Force majeure this, force majeure that: QatarEnergy invoked the contractual clause back in March at the start of the conflict, along with Aluminium Bahrain, Emirates Global Aluminium, Kuwait Petroleum, and Bapco Energies.

“Once you cut production, it's not like a light switch; you can't really turn it back on again,” CSC Commodities Energy Analyst Sasha Foss previously told us. “These reservoirs will take a lot of work to get them pumping back again to maximum production, so you risk long-term damage in terms of the production figures, which is what the market is scared of,” Foss said. This is kind of the scenario that they feared: “they really want to fulfill their term contracts,” he added.

CARGO — UAE players look to boost cargo flows: Some of the UAE’s logistics heavyweights are teaming up to improve intermodal logistics flows in the Emirates. AD Ports, CMA Terminals Khalifa Port, and shipping giant CMA CGM Group inked an MoU to streamline movement between rail depots, dry ports, and cargo depots.

Target areas: The cooperation between the three sides aims to boost movement through the northern Emirates, as well as into Oman and Saudi Arabia. The UAE and Oman are already partnering on a USD 2.5 bn rail project, which is set to include a freight service. Earlier in the war, the two countries also teamed up in a temporary joint corridor to expedite procedures for sea and air cargo via Oman, which is located outside of Hormuz.

Market watch

Oil prices dipped this morning as hopes rose for resumed Middle East supply after Trump hinted at an Iran peace agreement, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures slipped USD 1.89 to trade at USD 107.98 / bbl by 03.40 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined USD 1.83 to USD 100.44.

The Baltic Index continues to inch up: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — rose 3.7% to 2,832 points, driven by the bigger vessel segments. The capesize jumped 5.8%% to 4,703 points, while the panamax index gained 2.6% to 2,054. The smaller supramax shed 0.8% to 1,508 points.

Data point

35% — that’s how much transit trade volumes grew y-o-y in 1Q, Egyptian Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk said. The increase coincides with a rollout of exceptional customs facilitations, including the clearance of transit shipments without prior ACI registration and the introduction of alternatives to upfront cashbased ins. to ease investor burdens.

What’s next? A package of 40 tax and customs measures is set to be implemented within weeks, targeting faster clearance times and smoother cross-border trade.

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