Hormuz is choking urea supply — and markets are reacting

Fertilizer bottlenecks are turning into a supply shock: More than half of the Middle East’s urea output may have been lost since the Iran conflict began, as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz stalls shipments and leaves product stranded in the Gulf, Bloomberg reports, citing CRU Group estimates of 55-60% halted output.

Why it matters well beyond the Gulf: Roughly 45% of the global urea trade comes from producers with manufacturing sites on the Gulf, supplying key markets including India, Europe, and Brazil. Bloomberg data also showed that 44 fertilizer vessels remain stuck in the Gulf, with almost half carrying urea.

Fertilizer markets are already repricing the risk — raising the prospect of higher crop input costs and, eventually, food prices. That means prolonged disruption can start weighing on yields through the wider agricultural input chain — not just through urea prices.

Energy shocks have amplified the pressure since natgas is the main input for nitrogen fertilizers. “Natural gas’ key role as a fertilizer input could hit agricultural producers, impacting food prices,” MENA Director at Horizon Engage Andrew G. Farrand previously told EnterpriseAM.

A major GCC fertilizer producer says it’s been navigating the disruption: Fertiglobe CEO Ahmed El Hoshy told The National the company had made “pretty abnormal movements of vessels” and was rerouting cargo from Algeria and Nigeria to Australia while using higher fertilizer prices to offset added logistics costs. “We’re trying our best to move the product out,” he said.

REMEMBER- Markets have already reacted: Prices for granular urea jumped by USD 60 per ton after the effective closure of the strait. In the US Gulf, spot for urea rose USD 60-80 from last week, with traders warning that increases could follow if disruptions persist.

The longer the disruption lasts, the harder the reset may be. CRU warned that producers could face further shutdowns if storage fills up, adding that fertilizer plant restarts “are not a switch,” suggesting that supply strains may outlast any eventual reopening of Hormuz.