Adnoc maps full-stack gas play in US

Adnoc is lining up tens of bns of USD for its US gas push, with the state-backed giant building out a natural gas business in the US through its overseas investment arm XRG as regional disruptions reshape energy flows and pricing dynamics.

The strategy is to go vertical, with 29 agreements under review to stitch together a full-stack gas business, XRG’s Chief investment officer Nameer Siddiqui told the Financial Times.

In effect, it's a build-your-own LNG machine: The plan spans production, pipelines, processing, liquefaction, and potentially regasification and pipeline infrastructure to end-users in destination markets. The company is weighing controlled transactions, drilling JVs, and minority stakes, Siddiqui said.

The timing is doing some of the heavy lifting: Banks are stepping back from the US LNG market over fears of global oversupply, opening a lane for deep-pocketed Middle Eastern players willing to deploy capital, Director of Global Gas at Rapidan Energy Group Alex Munton told the salmon-colored paper.

Why this matters: US assets offer market access and a hedge against regional instability at a moment when Adnoc is building optionality into its portfolio. “The US is a market where we want to be bold,” Siddiqui noted, adding that “this is unwavering, although obviously we will only do that under the right return expectations.”

That portfolio is already planting flags in the US: XRG took an 11.7% stake in the first phase of NextDecade’s USD 18 bn Rio Grande LNG export facility in Texas back last year — marking its first direct investment in US gas infrastructure. The company also explored a USD 9 bn acquisition of US assets, including a 35% stake in ExxonMobil’s proposed low-carbon hydrogen facility, which is now on hold. Furthermore, it plans to establish a trading desk in the US and increase its US investments to USD 440 bn over the next decade.

On a short-term fix

Adnoc is offering buyers a workaround: Adnoc has told term customers they can pick up May cargoes — including Das and Upper Zakum — via alternative delivery points on a case-by-case basis. That includes ship-to-ship transfers off Fujairah and potentially Sohar.

The details matter: This means shipments are effectively pre-positioned beyond the chokepoint, though it’s unclear when or how those cargoes crossed the strait as transit remains constrained — despite an LNG vessel managing to sneak out this week. The UAE’s pipeline to Fujairah is mainly tied up moving Murban, leaving limited room for other grades.

The risk is reflected in pricing: Adnoc has set a flat May official selling price of USD 110 per barrel across Murban, Upper Zakum, and Das, up from USD 69 in April. The pricing gives buyers a steep premium for the grades that bake in disruption, risk, and rerouting costs as shipowners are still cautious around Fujairah, with buyers facing a mix of security and pricing premiums.