Can ships trust Hormuz even if the war ends?

Does Hormuz reopen when the war ends? A Pentagon assessment provided to US lawmakers indicates that fully clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz could take up to six months and that any comprehensive operation is unlikely to begin before the war ends — prolonging the economic impact even after hostilities cease.

The question now is: can ships use the strait with enough confidence to return to normal operations? US forces earlier this month said they began “setting conditions” to clear mines in the strait — but a six-month cleanup window means ins. providers, shipowners, and chartered could still price Hormuz as a residual war-risk corridor long after any political de-escalation.

The threat is limited in scale but disproportionate in impact: Iran is believed to have seeded the waterway with more than 20 naval mines, some reportedly equipped with GPS-based systems that complicate detection and neutralization.

And shipowners are already treating Hormuz as a risk corridor — with only five ships reportedly passing through Hormuz in the 24 hours before 24 April, compared with a pre-war average of around 140 ships a day.

Ins. writes another reopening test

Ins. becomes the Hormuz barometer: London insurers have lined up USD 1 bn in additional war-risk capacity for ships and cargoes transitioning Hormuz, with UK ins. provider Beazley leading a Lloyd’s-backed marine war consortium. War-risk rates around Hormuz rose back to around 3% of vessel value from 2% after the latest escalation.