Good morning, ladies and gents. We celebrate the news this morning of an indefinite ceasefire extension between the US and Iran, after US President Donald Trump made the announcement hours before the ceasefire was set to expire. The extension gives the two nations more time to continue negotiations.

How indefinite are we talking? Trump said the ceasefire will be extended until Iran submits its proposal and “discussions are concluded, one way or the other.” Washington’s blockade will continue until an agreement is reached.

It remains unclear where Iran stands: In the absence of a response from Tehran’s top leadership, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency stated that Tehran never sought a ceasefire extension and reiterated threats to break the US blockade of its ports by force. An adviser to Iran’s lead negotiator dismissed Trump’s announcement as insignificant.

We have an aid-heavy read for you this morning — with the World Bank allocating USD 200 mn for Syria’s railway projects.

Plus: We’re following reports that DP World may be tapped for a role in rebuilding Gaza’s supply chain network by Donald Trump’s so-called “Board of Peace.”

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TRUCKING — Iraq turns to Rabia for fuel oil via Syria: Iraq has reopened the Rabia border corridor with Syria for the first time in more than a decade — giving Baghdad another overland fuel oil export route as Gulf shipping disruptions strain storage capacity, Reuters reports, citing officials as saying.

Not the first inland corridor: Baghdad had already redirected flows through Al Waleedcrossing earlier this month, with more than 100 tankers crossing on the first day.

Why it matters: Somo awarded contracts to supply nearly 650k metric tons of fuel oil from April to June via overland trucking through Syria, despite higher costs. Hormuz disruption left storage tanks full and cut output at Iraq’s main southern oilfields by about 80% to around 800k bbl / d — turning overland trucking into a stopgap to keep exports moving.

CARGO — Morocco’s Tanger Med is pulling more war-disrupted cargo flows: Russian metals producer Nornickel diverting cargoes around Africa and increasingly routing shipments via Tangier before onward delivery to Europe. The shift has added roughly three weeks to transit times and raised freight costs, reflecting the growing strain on traditional routes.

Dima Maghrib: The Moroccan port is already expecting a potential rise in ship calls as giant carriers including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM are already rerouting around Africa to avoid the Suez Canal and wider Middle East disruption. The port handled 11.1 mn containers in 2025 and is connected to more than 180 ports, giving it the scale to absorb at least part of the spillover.

SHIPPING — India has expanded the number of Russian ins. firms eligible to provide marine cover for ships docking at its ports to 11 from eight. The move comes as India leans on Russian crude under a temporary US waiver, with the US-Israeli war on Iran effectively shutting Hormuz. Moscow-based insurers typically cover Russian cargoes — avoided by Western providers.

The approved insurers: India cleared Gazprom Ins. and Rosgosstrakh Ins. for P&I cover until February 2027; Balance Ins. until August 2026; and Soglasie, Sberbank, Ugoria Ins. Group, and ASTK Ins. until February 2027. Dubai-based Islamic P&I Club was also approved until 19 February 2027.

Market watch

Oil prices held steady this morning after an early USD 1 rise as investors weighed US-Iran peace prospects after a ceasefire extension, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures rose USD 0.03 to trade at USD 98.51 / bbl by 04.38 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down USD 0.13 to USD 89.53 / bbl.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu crude loadings dropped to 3.5 mn bbl / d last week, down 17% w-o-w and the lowest since mid-March. The decline is a sharp pullback from the early-April run rate of 4.2 mn bbl / d — brushing up against a 4.3 mn bbl / d record set in late-March.

Yanbu matters — because it has effectively become the Kingdom’s export valve while flows through Hormuz remain constrained.

The caveat: Kpler points to a shift away from VLCC-heavy loadings toward Aframax and Suezmax cargoes in the 13 April week — a smaller average cargo size translated directly into lower headline throughput.

Infrastructure isn’t the constraint — at least on paper — with Riyadh saying the East-West pipeline is back at 7 mn bbl / d after repairs from being hit. But the port hasn’t sustained throughput above its 5 mn bbl / d nameplate capacity.

The Baltic Index maintains its rising trajectory: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — rose 0.3% to 2,640 points on Tuesday. The capesize held steady at 4,300 points, while the panamax index fell 0.2% to 1,973. The smaller supramax was up 1.5% to 1,443 points.

Data point

USD 890 per ton — that’s the price Egyptian firms charged for six to seven shipments of exported fertilizers last Friday. Exporters charged significantly higher prices compared to the recent global average of USD 835 and nearly double the pre-crisis price of USD 484.

Egyptian fertilizer producers are leveraging the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to ramp up exports to India at record-high prices, Agritrade CEO Ahmed Hegras told Al Arabiya. The move comes as India grapples with a severe energy supply deficit after major Gulf exporters — including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE — suspended shipments due to the Hormuz blockade. This has positioned Egypt as the region’s most critical alternative supplier, with the potential to tap into some USD 1.6 bn in unutilized export capacity.

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