Good morning, nice people. We hope your weekend wasn’t as confusing as the state of Hormuz, which opened and closed more times than we could track. The US seized an Iranian cargo ship for allegedly attempting to breach its naval blockade, which President Donald Trump previously said would remain in full force until a peace agreement is signed. However, data from shipping analytics firm Kpler showed that 20 vessels transited Hormuz on Saturday.

Yes — some crude made it out, but access is increasingly conditional, as Gulf exporters are forced to either pay or find alternative routes as Iran uses control of Hormuz to extract coordination — and at times, fees. We dive into this and more in the news well, below.

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SHIPPING — London’s marine ins. providers are putting another USD 1 bn on the table for ships transiting Hormuz. UK-based ins. firm Beazley said it will lead a marine war consortium through Lloyd’s to provide the added cover for vessels and cargoes — with terms aligned to its risk appetite and global sanctions compliance.

Cover is still there, even if ships are not: The facility is meant to support the maritime sector as it navigates a “complex and evolving situation” in and around the strait. But it’s safety concerns, not ins. availability, driving the drop in vessel traffic.

ENERGY — It will take “approximately two years” for the Middle East’s energy output to return to pre-war levels, Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, told Swiss newspaper Neue Zurcher Zeitung. The timeline isn’t uniform — Iraq could take longer, Saudi Arabia less. The aggregate picture is slow and uneven across the region.

There’s no consensus on recovery: Birol’s two-year estimate sits in a widening range of projections, with recovery paths diverging based on assumptions around infrastructure damage, restart capacity, and whether flows in Hormuz will totally normalize.

Shipments were already in transit before the conflict started, cushioning the initial shock — but March saw no new tanker loadings, Birol said, noting that no fresh oil, gas, or fuel flows headed to Asia, and now that gap is starting to show up. If the strait stays shut, the market will be structurally undersupplied, with “significantly higher” energy prices.

Waiting to pull the trigger: After deploying emergency reserves in March, Birol said another release is under consideration, with the agency ready to act “immediately and decisively.”

AVIATION — Iran is gradually reopening its airspace under a four-stage reopening plan — after the state’s Civil Aviation Organization said part of the airspace and some airports reopened on Saturday following security assessments. The phased approach will begin with transit flights, followed by the resumption of operations at eastern airports, then the major hubs in Tehran — including Mehrabad and Imam Khomeini airports — before expanding to western airports.

What does this mean? “This looks like a premature signal from an unstable region rather than a meaningful return to normal operations,” Sindy Foster, principal managing partner of Avaero Capital partners, tells EnterpriseAM. “Airlines are unlikely to rush back simply because Iran says reopening will happen in stages,” Foster says, especially with ticket sales suspended and the broader security picture still unsettled.

Revenue play? “I would not interpret this as the beginning of the end of regional airspace disruption, but better seen as a political and commercial signal,” Foster argues, “That includes an attempt to restore overflight revenue, but not yet a convincing operational one until airlines, insurers, and regulators see stable conditions and a consistent security picture,” she adds.

Market watch

Oil prices jumped 5% this morning on fears that the US-Iran truce may falter after a ship seizure, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures increased USD 5.08 to trade at USD 95.46 / bbl by 04.18 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained USD 5.01 to USD 88.86 / bbl.

The Baltic Index keeps the rally going: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — rose 1.7% to 2,567 points on Friday, its highest level since 8 December 2025. The capesize climbed 2.5% to 4,128 points, the panamax index edged up 0.3% to 1,975, and the smaller supramax advanced 1.2% to 1,415 points.

The Drewry World Container Index slipped 3% at USD 2,246 per 40-ft container last week, according to the latest index readings. The pullback came as transpacific and Asia-Europe rates eased, with Shanghai-New York down (3%) and Shanghai-Los Angeles also down (3%), as the US blockade is tightening oil supply chains and raising the risk of port omissions, longer lead times, weaker schedule reliability, and firmer freight rates if talks fail.

Data point

USD 58 bn — that’s the updated bill for repairing energy infrastructure across the Gulf from war-related damage, according to Rystad Energy. Oil and gas facilities alone account for USD 30-50 bn, while non-hydrocarbon infrastructure adds further USD 3-8 bn.

The estimate more than doubled from USD 25 bn just three weeks ago, reflecting the expanded scope of damage prior to the recent ceasefire. Rystad now sets the midpoint for total restoration costs at USD 46 bn.

A supply chain squeeze: The key constraint is not funding but access to equipment, contractors, and logistics, with recovery timelines already diverging by asset and country. Facilities with limited damage, existing contractor presence, and modular repair needs have returned within weeks, while assets requiring core process-unit rebuilds or long-lead equipment remain in assessment stages, with timelines stretching into years.

That is also starting to crowd out new project execution, as developers prioritize restoring existing production over advancing greenfield developments — pulling engineering, equipment, and logistics away from projects already underway. “Repair work does not create new capacity; it redirects existing capacity, and that redirection will be felt in project delays and into inflation far beyond the Middle East,” Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy Karan Satwani said.

PSA

MSC rolls out new fuel surcharges: MSC has revised its emergency fuel surcharge on cargo moving between Northern Europe, the Baltic, the West Mediterranean, the Adriatic, the Red Sea, and East Africa. The new rates apply from 16-30 April 2026 (by bill of lading date). Dry cargo surcharges range from USD 100 per TEU (Red Sea-West Mediterranean/Adriatic) to USD 320 per TEU (Scanbaltic-East Africa), while reefer rates reach up to USD 480 per TEU on East Africa-Scanbaltic routes

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