Good morning, friends. The shift in mood is stark this morning after the overnight announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.

Here’s what we know: Washington will “suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” if Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, US President Donald Trump said. Tehran responded by saying it would halt its attacks across the Gulf if the US and Israel stop their attacks. The Islamic Republic also said it would open the Strait of Hormuz, allowing vessels to transit the waterway in coordination with Iranian armed forces. This came hours before Trump’s deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or else a “whole civilization will die.”

What happens next? The two sides will meet on Friday to “further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes,” Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said. Trump said Iran presented a 10-point proposal, which he called a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”

The opening of a choked strait, at last? The opening of Hormuz comes as no loaded LNGcargo has yet passed since the strikes began — despite Iran effectively running a toll booth for transit, with passage determined by routing, ownership, coordination, and risk tolerance.

Watch this space

PORTS — The Egyptian Customs Authority officially rolled out its fully automated export system yesterday at Ain Sokhna port, with plans to gradually expand across all ports, a government official tells EnterpriseAM. The new system decouples export and import customs procedures, prioritizing outbound shipments to fast-track exports amid increased international demand for Egyptian goods as the war on Iran continues to disrupt global supply chains.

The fully digital platform replaces paper-based processes, which have historically caused clearance delays and increased the risk of manipulation. “The new system will integrate all relevant inspection authorities based on shipment type, bringing them onto a single system and significantly reducing the time required to secure approvals and complete export procedures,” the source said. With the launch, all exporters operating through Ain Sokhna are now mandated to obtain a Unified Consignment Reference for shipments intended for export.

Why this matters: If the government is to hit its ambitious USD 145 bn annual export target by 2030, it needs to make significant strides in making customs more efficient and less burdensome for exporters. The Finance Ministry is targeting customs clearance times of 48 hours, down from eight days currently, with a longer-term goal of achieving final clearance within hours.

One key advantage is faster payout of export subsidies. “The new system will allow for the immediate disbursement of export incentives […] instead of exporters waiting months to obtain manual approvals and paper documents before officially applying to the Export Support Fund,” the official tells us. This move is expected to significantly improve liquidity for manufacturers who previously faced a six-month wait for document auditing and disbursement.

SUPPLY CHAIN — Food supply chains in the Kingdom and the Gulf have remained resilient and stable without significant disruptions, BinDawood Holding CEO Ahmad Abdulrazzaq BinDawood told Al Arabiya. Although shipping costs have doubled, price increases have not exceeded 15%, he added, reassuring that the Kingdom has a 90-day strategic reserve of essential food stocks.

Market watch

Oil prices fell below USD 100 this morning following the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures fell USD 14.51 to trade at USD 94.76 / bbl by 11.02 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped USD 17.16 to USD 95.79 / bbl.

The Baltic Index continues to rise: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — was up 1.8% to 2,095 on Tuesday. The capesize jumped 2% to 3,148 points, while the panamax index rose 1% to 1,802. The smaller supramax advanced 0.6% to 1,232 points.

Data point

46.3 — that’s Kuwait’s headline purchasing managers’ index (PMI) figure in March, plunging from 54.5 in February, according to S&P Global’s Kuwait PMI (pdf). This reading marks the first time in 19 months that the index has fallen below the 50.0 neutral threshold, signaling the most pronounced deterioration in non-oil business conditions since January 2022.

War-driven disruption hits home: The downturn was driven primarily by the regional conflict, which has sparked significant disruptions to logistical and trade infrastructure. Companies frequently cited the suspension of flights and shipping as primary headwinds, leading to the first contractions in output and new orders in 38 months, and the steepest declines since May 2021. International business was similarly constrained, with firms reporting a marked inability to secure new export orders.

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