Business conditions across the region’s non-oil private sectors weakened in March as rising geopolitical tensions and softer demand weighed on activity. Saudi Arabia’s sector contracted for the first time in over five years (PMI 48.8 from 56.1), the UAE slowed sharply (52.9, a near three-year low), and Egypt’s downturn deepened (48.0, its weakest since April 2024).

Saudi Arabia

KSA’s non-oil private sector contracted for the first time in over 5.5 years. The headline Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) tumbled to 48.8 in March — a sharp drop from 56.1 in February, according to the Riyad Bank Saudi ArabiaPMI(pdf). The 7.3-point drop is the second-largest decline in the survey’s history, eclipsed only by the initial pandemic shock of March 2020.

Geopolitical instability is doing most of the damage. Non-oil firms saw new business drop sharply as the regional war pushed clients to delay spending and shelve new projects pending clarity on the conflict, the report noted. Export orders were hit particularly hard, falling at their fastest rate in nearly six years.

Local logistics are also under strain. “There is a decline in new orders and local purchasing power, or at least in consumer confidence, which has led to a reduction in production and supply,” MENA Economist Hamzeh Al Gaaod tells EnterpriseAM. Transport costs have spiked as industries — particularly oil production — shift operations from the east to the west to secure exports, leading to “time delays and increased costs,” he said.

The backlog paradox: Though new business has slowed, work is piling up. Backlogs grew at their fastest pace since 2018, driven by freight delays and rising transport costs, while supplier delivery times hit their worst level since June 2020. This buildup suggests that “underlying demand remains present,” Riyad Bank Chief Economist Naif Al-Ghaith noted in the report, adding that “firms responded prudently by adjusting purchasing activity, while inventory levels stayed relatively well-positioned.”

UAE

Growth in the UAE’s non-oil private sector slowed to a significantly more subdued pace in March, as the war in the Middle East undercut customer demand, snarled supply routes, and pushed input prices higher, according to S&P Global’s latest UAE PMI (pdf). The country’s seasonally adjusted PMI slipped to 52.9, down from 55.0 in February, marking the joint‑weakest reading since June 2021.

The slowdown was expected. A major factor could be the “gradual departure of foreign investors and foreign labor — particularly Europeans, Americans, and workers from other Western countries — from the UAE,” Al Gaaod said. While the reading is still above the 50.0 neutral threshold, the conflict has “accelerated the build‑up of slowing growth momentum during March,” he added.

Where the biggest impact shows: “Anecdotal comments suggested that sectors such as tourism, retail, and logistics were the most affected, whereas segments such as technology and construction signalled a softer, but still notable impact,” S&P Global Senior Economist David Owen wrote.

Besides the hit to demand, firms reported that the war constrained output, as it disrupted both supply chain routes and end-market demand — though many still noted resilient order books and ongoing project work, which kept the PMI above the expansion threshold.

The suppliers’ delivery times index recorded its largest monthly fall since the series began a decade and a half ago, while vendor performance deteriorated for the first time since September 2021. The disruption of key supply routes, including reported bottlenecks around the Strait of Hormuz, has translated into significantly longer wait times for critical inputs.

In a bid to protect margins, UAE firms hiked average selling prices at the fastest pace in around 11.5 years, as input price pressures accelerated in March, with the war pushing up costs for logistics, ins., fuel, energy, steel, technology equipment, and machinery. The rate of increase in purchase prices was the fastest since July 2024, prompting many firms to pass on costs.

The bottom line: The outlook hinges entirely on regional stability. “The more the war continues, and the closure of the strait persists, the more companies — especially those producing and exporting products — will suffer,” Al Gaaod tells us.

Egypt

Egypt’s non-oil private sector saw its fastest deterioration in operating conditions since April 2024 in March, reflecting a sharp dip in output and new orders that saw them both hit their lowest levels in nearly two years, according to the latest S&P Global Egypt PMI (pdf). The headline index fell for a fourth consecutive month, dropping 0.8 points from the month before to 48.0 in March, placing it firmly below the 50.0 mark threshold that separates contraction from growth, which it has remained under for the last three months.

The ongoing war in the region stands out as the primary drag on macroeconomic momentum, with those surveyed reporting that the war has “dampened client demand, partly through an increase in price pressures,” according to the report. Beyond direct demand, the war has triggered a spike in input costs, with firms reporting the sharpest uptick in purchase prices since late 2024. “As the USD strengthens amid a flight to safety, and energy prices remain elevated, Egyptian companies are clearly feeling the impact on their balance sheets,” Owen noted.

Uncertainty and soaring costs drove a steeper drop in new sales compared to February, with manufacturers being the hardest hit and bearing the brunt of rising expenses. In response to war-linked commodity price spikes and a weaker EGP, firms raised output prices at the fastest pace in 10 months.

Tags: