Flows are moving in Hormuz, but only along a controlled current. Traffic through the strait has picked up over the past week, with a handful of select vessels making successful crossings after nearly a month of disruption.

Data caveat: Vessel tracking is being hampered by electronic interference, while some tankers are switching off AIS transponders in high-risk waters — reducing the reliability and timeliness of observed movements reported in the media. “AIS tracking shows ships in locations where they are not and can disrupt compliance checks with false sanctioned flagging,” Sean Burgin, senior purchaser at Unicore Sean, previously told EnterpriseAM.

Who passed?

Western shipping has made it through: The Malta-flagged CMA CGM “Kribi” exited the Gulf after reactivating its transponder near Dubai on 28 March — transiting the strait laden with cargo and marking the first known safe passage by a Western vessel since the outbreak.

The route: The vessel passed close to Iran’s Larak Island, following a corridor that has become standard in recent weeks — part of a system allowing Iranian authorities to verify and monitor crossings. Most recorded transits have been directed through the narrow northern passage between Larak and Qeshm islands, concentrating traffic into a monitored corridor.

Indian-flagged vessels are also moving: LPG tanker Green Sanvi crossed the strait carrying 46.7k metric tons of LPG, with Indian authorities indicating that several of their vessels have also transited safely in the past three weeks, although 17 ships remain idle in the Arabian Gulf.

Oman: A one-off exception, or the start of a new trend?

Gas flows are testing the limits: Omani-linked LNG tanker Sohar, partly owned by Japan’s Mitsui OSK Lines, is now near Muscat after exiting Hormuz via the southern route near Oman — an unusual deviation from the northern corridor most ships have followed, suggesting some flexibility depending on vessel ownership and alignment.

Oman is going even further: Two VLCCs, Habrut and Dhalkut, each carrying up to 2 mn barrels, crossed the strait on 2 April en route to feed the Duqm refinery, which has been starved of crude since the conflict began.

Cargoes are telling: Habrut is carrying UAE Murban crude loaded at Jebel Dhanna, while Dhalkut co-loaded Saudi Arab Heavy and Arab Medium at Juaymah. Both vessels are owned by Oman’s state shipping firm Asyad and were redirected after being stuck in the Gulf for weeks.

The policy layer is catching up to reality on the water: Iranian officials say they are working with Oman on a framework requiring vessels to coordinate transit in advance and obtain permits from both sides.

Our take: The ships are Omani-owned and sailing along Omani waters — suggesting Muscat has received assurances from Tehran that it can move cargoes through the strait without risk.

Who’s exempted?

The “non-hostile” club: Countries like China, Russia, India, and Pakistan have been allowed transit under the “aligned with Iran” logic, with negotiated passages for countries like Malaysia and Thailand — alongside ships carrying “ essential goods.”

Iraq joined the inner circle: Iran has said Iraqi oil shipments are exempt from restrictions, potentially unlocking up to 3 mn bbl / d of exports — though it remains unclear whether this applies to all cargoes or only Iraqi tankers, and whether shipowners will take the risk to lift them. Within a day of the exemption, an oil tanker loaded with 1 mn barrels of Basrah Heavy crude was seen passing the strait.

Access is also becoming priced: Some tankers have reportedly paid around USD 1 / bbl through Iran’s toll booth play.

Controlled access, limited flow

Capacity remains the constraint: After a month of disruption, tanker availability is tight, and it’s unclear how much shipping capacity can immediately return to load and transport crude from Gulf ports, even where exemptions exist.

Why this matters: The strait is no longer closed — but it is no longer open either, with transit determined by routing, ownership, coordination, and risk tolerance.

What’s next: The key question is whether these controlled transits scale into sustained flows — or remain isolated exceptions that signal access without restoring real supply.

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