China’s rapid adoption of electric heavy-duty trucks could shake up the global LNG market. Battery-powered truck sales in China, the world’s largest auto market, hit record levels in late 2025 and early 2026 — surpassing gas-powered vehicles for the first time and accounting for 20% of the country’s total commercial vehicle sales.

Why it matters

China is the world’s largest consumer of LNG — and around half of this consumption comes from the transport sector. For global markets, this means a major engine of LNG demand growth could be stalling, potentially opening the door for alternative product users to lap up the supply gap it leaves.

This trend also marks a significant shift in the energy transition narrative for logistics. LNG has long been viewed as the bridge fuel for heavy transport, but the falling cost of battery technology and expanded charging infrastructure in China are making electric trucks a more viable and cheaper commercial alternative.

A serious threat or just a fad?

The majority of Chinese trucks — for now — are still powered by diesel or gasoline, with LNG-truck usage marking growth, albeit at a slower pace, in 2025. Sales ticked up 12% last year, settling at just under 200k vehicles.

China’s LNG inflow is still on the up overall. Its LNG imports surged 15% y-o-y to 6.94 mn metric tons in January. On a global scale, LNG demand is predicted to jump to up to 700 mtpa by 2040, up from around 415 mtpa at present — led by China and India as the powerhouses of demand, according to Shell CEO Wael Sawan.

Truckings’ loss could be data centers’ gain. Rising electricity demand from AI and data centers could spur an LNG supply “shortage, instead of an oversupply by 2030,” Qatar Energy CEO Saad Al Kaabi said on the sidelines of LNG2026 in Doha this week. This counters previous concerns that LNG coming online between 2026 and 2029 could create a supply glut, depressing prices — with new major projects, including Qatar’s North Field Expansion, expected to generate sizable stock.

China’s electricity capacity for data centers is expected to have spiked by as much as 30% y-o-y in 2025 — hitting 30 GW, according to data from Goldman Sachs. Local leading internet firms are expected to invest over USD 70 bn to support AI adoption across the country just this year.

The regional angle

Could it have a direct impact on the MENA region? Qatar and the UAE could potentially be impacted — two nations that are banking on long-term Asian demand to justify massive capacity expansions. If China’s logistics sector decouples from gas faster than anticipated, it could lead to a global supply glut, affecting capital flows and long-term pricing strategies for regional energy majors.

DATA POINT- By 2025, Qatar became the number one supplier of LNG to China, with a quarter of Qatar’s LNG supply going to China in early 2024. In the UAE, LNG exports to China grew by 258% y-o-y to an additional USD 314 mn in FY 2023 — making China the fastest-growing market for Emirati gas.

But the outlook looks steady as China continues to invest in long-term contracts from the region. QatarEnergy locked in a 27-year supplyagreement with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) back in 2023 to uptake 4 mtpa. Qatar used this to support the expansion of its North Field reservoir, and CNPC took a stake in the reservoir under the agreement. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) is set to expand its Al Ruwais LNG site to increase production capacity to 15 mtpa, with exports operations scheduled to launch in 2028. In turn, Adnoc inked a 15-year agreement with China’s ENN Natural Gas to deliver some 1 mtpa of LNG from the new plant.

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