Good morning, ladies and gents. We’re strapping on our global trade binoculars today to assess how the conflict in the Middle East is set to impact supply chains, who will lose ground, and who will carve out gains. We also take a look at how the closure of Hormuz is threatening a total production shutdown within weeks. Shall we?

Watch this space

DEBT WATCH — Adnoc is reportedly shelving its planned USD 2 bndebut dim sumbond as the widening regional war rattles credit markets, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are in the know. The energy giant, which had been sounding out investors since October and was due to market the notes this week, has now paused the process to avoid paying a war premium and to secure better borrowing costs.

The move tracks with a broader wave of global issuers delaying their debt sales. Yesterday marked the first day this year that the European publicly-syndicated debt market saw zero USD, EUR, or GBP offerings from corporate or sovereign borrowers, Bloomberg reported separately.

AVIATION — Regional airspace has opened up to limited flight after being completely closed off since Saturday, and with minimal damage reported in the UAE. Emirates, Flydubai, and Etihad Airways all say they have allowed limited flight operations, with Etihad saying they were for “repatriation, cargo, and repositioning” purposes. All other flights are suspended until at least midday tomorrow, and the airlines have advised against going to the airport without receiving a flight update or notification.

LATEST UPDATE- Two Etihad flights bound for Abu Dhabi were diverted to Muscat in the early hours of the morning, according to FlightRadar24. Meanwhile, a Dubai-bound Emirates flight headed back to Mumbai.

MARITIME — Egypt’s Canal Shipping Agencies and Trust for Trade and Transport will operate special-purpose commercial vessels between Egypt and East African countries, according to a Transport Ministry statement. The JV will provide logistics, agency services, and customs clearance for livestock and goods, and will initially operate through Safaga Port, with plans to expand across the Red Sea network.

Why it matters: By deploying dedicated vessels and bundling regulatory clearances under a single state-backed operator, the venture aims to resolve chronic capacity bottlenecks and port delays that have long deterred private-sector importers. Its success would stabilize meat supply chains and lower the unit economics for Egyptian exporters looking to replace expensive transhipment routes with a direct Red Sea corridor.

Market watch

Oil prices climbed this morning on rising US-Israeli tensions with Iran and Strait of Hormuz supply fears, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures were up USD 1.70 to trade at USD 79.44 / bbl at 04.00 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained USD 1.17 to USD 72.40 / bbl.

The Baltic Index continues to rise: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — was up 2.2% to 2,187 points on Monday. The capesize gained 2.5% to 3,133 points, and the panamax index was up 1.9% to 1,979, while the smaller supramax index gained 1.7% to 1,361 points.

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