What happens when key hubs and chokepoints are disrupted?

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

TODAY: How far will disruptions at hubs and chokepoints ripple?

Good morning, ladies and gents. We’re strapping on our global trade binoculars today to assess how the conflict in the Middle East is set to impact supply chains, who will lose ground, and who will carve out gains. We also take a look at how the closure of Hormuz is threatening a total production shutdown within weeks. Shall we?

Watch this space

DEBT WATCH — Adnoc is reportedly shelving its planned USD 2 bndebut dim sumbond as the widening regional war rattles credit markets, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are in the know. The energy giant, which had been sounding out investors since October and was due to market the notes this week, has now paused the process to avoid paying a war premium and to secure better borrowing costs.

The move tracks with a broader wave of global issuers delaying their debt sales. Yesterday marked the first day this year that the European publicly-syndicated debt market saw zero USD, EUR, or GBP offerings from corporate or sovereign borrowers, Bloomberg reported separately.

AVIATION — Regional airspace has opened up to limited flight after being completely closed off since Saturday, and with minimal damage reported in the UAE. Emirates, Flydubai, and Etihad Airways all say they have allowed limited flight operations, with Etihad saying they were for “repatriation, cargo, and repositioning” purposes. All other flights are suspended until at least midday tomorrow, and the airlines have advised against going to the airport without receiving a flight update or notification.

LATEST UPDATE- Two Etihad flights bound for Abu Dhabi were diverted to Muscat in the early hours of the morning, according to FlightRadar24. Meanwhile, a Dubai-bound Emirates flight headed back to Mumbai.

MARITIME — Egypt’s Canal Shipping Agencies and Trust for Trade and Transport will operate special-purpose commercial vessels between Egypt and East African countries, according to a Transport Ministry statement. The JV will provide logistics, agency services, and customs clearance for livestock and goods, and will initially operate through Safaga Port, with plans to expand across the Red Sea network.

Why it matters: By deploying dedicated vessels and bundling regulatory clearances under a single state-backed operator, the venture aims to resolve chronic capacity bottlenecks and port delays that have long deterred private-sector importers. Its success would stabilize meat supply chains and lower the unit economics for Egyptian exporters looking to replace expensive transhipment routes with a direct Red Sea corridor.

Market watch

Oil prices climbed this morning on rising US-Israeli tensions with Iran and Strait of Hormuz supply fears, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures were up USD 1.70 to trade at USD 79.44 / bbl at 04.00 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained USD 1.17 to USD 72.40 / bbl.

The Baltic Index continues to rise: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — was up 2.2% to 2,187 points on Monday. The capesize gained 2.5% to 3,133 points, and the panamax index was up 1.9% to 1,979, while the smaller supramax index gained 1.7% to 1,361 points.

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What happens when key trade hubs and chokepoints collapse?

The regional war is disrupting trade and logistics — but just how severe are the repercussions? With the closure of key maritime chokepoints and a threat to the reliability of key Gulf hubs, we dive into the market impact and explore who bears the brunt and who capitalizes from losses.

Who pays when chokepoints fail — and who benefits from detours?

When the world’s two most important chokepoints are compromised, where do we go? The simultaneous threats to the Suez Canal and Strait of Hormuz have created a strategic chokehold for global trade, turning a bottleneck that escalates normal trade delays into widespread market disruption.

The math for a Suez-Hormuz bypass is catastrophic for margins. Rerouting Indian or Gulf exports around the Cape of Good Hope adds 15 to 20 days to transit times — but the bigger shock is the war-risk premium, which has jumped from 0.025% to 0.5% of vessel value in just a matter of days. With Brent crude surging to USD 130 per barrel on Hormuz closure fears, the delivered cost of goods is no longer predictable — exporters who paid USD 300 for a container to Dubai are now starting at USD 1.2k.

The detour around Africa is not all rainbows and butterflies — South African ports, such as Durban, Cape Town, and Coega, are not built to handle a 90% diversion of Suez traffic. Bunkering hubs like Algoa Bay are under strain from regulatory disputes and rising demand, forcing vessels to to wait in long queues just to fuel up for the North Atlantic leg.

Can inland transport or pipelines do the trick? Not quite. The Saudi East-West pipeline moves 5 mn barrels per day — far less than the 20 mn that normally pass through Hormuz. Overland corridors, like the International North-South Transport Corridor, don’t have the TEU capacity to handle diverted Suez traffic that the Cape of Good Hope can handle.

The damage will hit other industries as well — Tesla and Volvo paused production in Europe after components failed to arrive on time during the Red Sea disruption in 2024.

The beneficiaries on the carrier side are those with pricing power. Hapag-Lloyd is already layering a war risk surcharge on Persian Gulf cargo and has published fresh tariff increases from North Europe to India and the Middle East starting 1 April.

Freight rates could rebalance…eventually

The shipping industry may find itself insulated from a problem that was supposed to hurt it. Overcapacity in the market is “being hidden by disruptions, depressing freight rates,” Simon Heaney, container industry analyst at Drewry, told EnterpriseAM. “Excess supply growth has been curtailed due to things like slower steaming, port congestion, and obviously the Red Sea diversions creating longer journey times.”

A wind-down in disruptions would have caused a substantial drop in freight rates, and in turn carrier bottom lines. “The speed of our return back through the Suez Canal will impact the market’s ability to be shielded [from the level of overcapacity],” Heaney had told us.

This year was expected to usher in an ease in disrupting factors, with Red Sea diversions starting to scale back. Instead, that disruption has now extended to Hormuz.

Oil prices could be a drag, though. We know now that sustained disruptions could mean crude will hit the USD 100 mark. That would mean higher costs for shippers since fuel accounts for up to 40% of their expenses.

Could repeated disruptions erode confidence in Gulf hub ports?

No port in the wider corridor is fully insulated anymore, with strikes hitting major ports such as the UAE’s Jebel Ali in Dubai, Zayed Port in Abu Dhabi, the Port of Bahrain, and Oman’s Duqm with two tankers hit near Khasab Port and Sultan Qaboos Port.

Gulf hub confidence is on a short leash: The precautionary suspensions and vessel anchoring near Hormuz came on top of months of Red Sea volatility — starting in late 2023 — that already forced some carriers to reroute around the Cape to avoid Bab el Mandeb. Gulf hubs like Jebel Ali were used more heavily as consolidation and feeder redistribution nodes. Congestion at Jebel Ali hit four- to six-day vessel delays at the time vs the usual zero-day delays.

This week’s temporary shutdown marks a different layer of risk. Red Sea rerouting tested capacity, while now tensions test access.

The transshipment business isn’t a volume game, it’s a reliability game, and geopolitics is now the dominant variable in that equation. Shippers and carriers can tolerate congestion surcharges, delays, even premium rates — but what they can’t tolerate is unpredictability. Gulf hubs “dominated” because carriers could anchor the routing playbook around them with predictable turnaround times. But now, war-risk premiums and corridor volatility are reshaping routing decisions.

The same strategic geography that created the edge is now the liability. Proximity to the world’s busiest energy corridor built scale, but also (as we’ve seen) volatility, with the dual corridor exposure of the Red Sea and Hormuz

Who loses: The risk sits with ports whose volumes depend on passing cargo, not local demand — particularly Gulf transshipment hubs like the UAE’s Jebel Ali and Khalifa. Such ports will not only lose cargo, but also the routing network. When carriers reroute, they don’t simply swap one port for another, they redesign entire service strings, and those strings are sticky (as we’ve seen in the Red Sea) — they rarely reverse cleanly when security improves.

Who gains: Ports sitting outside Hormuz, offering geographic insulation, could gain. Oman’s Salalah, which handled 4.3 mn TEUs in 2025, provides scale. India’s Mundra and Sri Lanka’s Colombo provide established transshipment capability without direct exposure to the military geometry, according to a report (pdf). Djibouti remains strategically positioned near Bab el Mandeb, though its fortunes depend heavily on Red Sea security stabilizing. Ports slightly removed from the chokepoint gain appeal precisely because they sit one step outside the exposure zone.

Egypt sits in the middle — exposed on energy, opportunistic on containers: Operations in East Port Said on the Mediterranean remain steady, a senior Egyptian government source tells EnterpriseAM, arguing that the port’s container-heavy profile shields it from Hormuz-linked crude disruptions. The terminal continues to lean on transshipment volumes, which hit 5.6 mn TEUs in 2025. However, Ain Sokhna is already feeling the knock-on from halted oil tanker movements tied to Hormuz.

The upside — if it materializes — is diversion: As more vessels extend voyages around the Cape, Damietta and Alexandria could capture incremental container calls and logistics activity. But this isn’t a clean win. The real variable is duration: a short shock creates selective port gains, while a prolonged disruption erodes canal-linked revenue and tightens energy exposure.

Airline impact goes beyond cancellations — it hits shares too

The Gulf’s ‘super-connector’ model hit a wall of closed airspace — and the closure of some of the world’s busiest international hubs isn't just a disruption, it is a rapid shift of the world's air traffic and trade flows

The East-West bridge has buckled: With Jordan, Dubai, and Qatar airport hubs partially or fully shuttered, primary corridors for India-Europe and Asia-US traffic could potentially disappear. Oil prices jumped nearly 7%, but the real “war tax” is rerouting — Air India is now making mid-route stops in Rome for US-bound flights, a move that will cut the efficiency and cost-advantage of the ultra-long-haul model.

Who’s hit the hardest? Emirates and Qatar Airways were the worst-affected carriers — with the two airlines cancelling over 400 flights each. Global travel stocks reacted sharply — with TUI shares dropping 8.5%, Lufthansa down 6.5%, and IAG falling 4.8% as the market priced in a long-term curb on travel appetite. India’s IndiGo stood out as the hardest-hit non-regional airline — with Indian carriers particularly exposed due to their heavy reliance on Middle Eastern schedules for migrant worker traffic as well as existing bans on using Pakistani airspace, according to analysts.

The immediate reaction was severe — but the long-term impact could be more significant. Analysts warn that if the aviation hubs remain closed, we could be seeing a massive spike in air freight rates and a total realignment of aircraft positioning across the hemisphere. “We believe that an active war zone, along with the resulting flight disruptions –– due to closure of airspace and airports –– is likely to curb travel appetite in the region,” said B Riley Securities in a note.

Capacity is the only currency in crisis: King Khalid International in Riyadh has emerged as a principal evacuation hub for the wealthy and senior executives. Istanbul is the other big beneficiary — leveraging its 80% capacity share to absorb ultra-long-haul diversions while its secondary hub, Sabiha Gökçen, captures regional budget traffic via Pegasus Airlines.

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With Hormuz on lockdown and GCC supply strained –– a 25-day countdown starts

The closure of Hormuz has paralyzed regional energy logistics — threatening a total production shutdown within weeks. With the world's most vital oil artery blocked, the logistical challenge has shifted from delays to a question of physical storage capacity. The conflict is spilling across the region, threatening the 21 mn barrels of oil from Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE that pass through the strait daily.

Middle East oil producers have roughly 25 days before they run out of storage space, analysts at JP Morgan say. If the Strait remains closed beyond this window, producers may have to stop output entirely because there will be nowhere left to put the oil. A production halt is a massive logistical and technical undertaking. Once wells are capped due to lack of storage, restarting them is neither fast nor cheap.

The situation “has already moved from geopolitical noise to actual impact,” Rabobank Energy Strategist Florence Schmit told EnterpriseAM, as energy infrastructure across the region has been targeted and Israel has already curtailed gas production as a precaution.

“It’s a matter of the duration of this crisis,” Jean-Christian Heintz, Wideangle LNG consulting director, told EnterpriseAM. “As a rule of thumb, if we are talking about one week of shortage, you see that this already translates into 2% of annual LNG production.”

The logistical chokepoint

Aramco halted operations at some of Ras Tanura refinery’s units following a drone strike in the area — shutting the plant as a precaution, sources told Bloomberg, in what appears to be the first direct strike on oil infrastructure in this round of hostilities. The 550k bbl / d facility — one of the kingdom’s largest — sits on the Persian Gulf, directly exposed as maritime traffic through Hormuz grinds to a near-halt.

QatarEnergy shut down LNG production after an Iranian drone hit Ras Laffan, the world’s largest export facility, sending European gas prices soaring more than 50%. The company, which supplies about a fifth of global LNG, has declared force majeure on its LNG contracts. While Asian buyers dominate Middle Eastern LNG demand, the disruption is expected to intensify global competition for supplies, driving prices higher across markets.

Why it matters: “Stopping production means you implicitly believe that you will have a tank-top problem, so you will have an issue of not being able to off-take all the production because you obviously have a limited amount of storage,” Heintz adds. “It also means that you are ready to undergo a potentially very long and costly restart process, as generally those plants are not designed for being shut down. It’s quite a big move.”

It's definitely out of character: QatarEnergy is “very careful about the reputation and the reliability of their supplies. They don't want to be in that gray zone where [buyers] don't know exactly when [supplies] will be loaded and when they will be delivered,” Heintz notes.

The oil fallout

With 15 mn bbl / d currently blocked from the market, analysts at Wood Mackenzie and Barclays warn that Brent could surpass USD 100 / bbl as a geopolitical risk premium is baked into every barrel that can still reach a pipe or a port.

Iran ramped up exports in anticipation of US-strikes to multi-year highs last month. Any near-term production loss will not be felt immediately due to this buffer, as the majority of these barrels have cleared physical storage.

But it's got an achilles heel: While Iran has the world's fourth-largest reserves, 90% of its crude flows from a single export terminal: Kharg Island. Though the terminal has recently drained its inventories and stepped up exports, any strike there could freeze some 3 mn bpd of exports.

The disruption will hit Asian markets hardest, as they uptake 45.7% of their total crude load and 29.5% of their gasoline via the strait. Countries like Japan, China, and India — which rely on the Middle East for the vast majority of their crude — are facing immediate supply gaps as tankers are unable to exit the Gulf.

Europe isn’t out of the woods –– up to 30%of Europe’s jet fuel supply comes from the Strait of Hormuz. “Industry-wide, the price of oil — and therefore jet fuel — is also of significant concern. The higher prices rise, and the longer they stay there, the wider the impact will be felt,” Ian Petchenik, director of Communications at Flightradar24, told EnterpriseAM.

Russia could reap the biggest rewards of this crisis. With the region’s supply facing logistical disruption, both India and China could be compelled to deepen reliance on Russia’s supply, Kpler analysts speculate. India, faced with the most acute near-term exposure to the closure, is expected to pivot towards Russian crude quickly due to its proximity and established logistics channels. China has been curbing its uptake of Russia crude as of late, but will likely up its intake if the conflict persists beyond a few weeks.

China has a buffer to deal with the supply crunch in the short-term, retaining a significant crude reserve accumulated during the period of global oversupply. This supply positions China well as a potential re-exporter to third markets if the crisis deepens.

The LNG & LPG fallout

The global LNG supply relies on the corridor, with Qatar accounting for roughly 20% of the world's supply. LNG shipments are currently paralyzed, with at least 11 Qatari LNG tankers pausing mid-voyage, according to ship-tracking data.

India will feel the biggest blow, with up to 85% of its LPG supply having to traverse the strait. “It's not a trivial number or a trivial product to be substituted with anything,” Kpler Director of Oil and Tanker Research Andon Pavlov explains (watch, runtime: 6:10). There are “very limited” alternative supply options for LPG leaving the corridor, he says, deeming the duration risk for the commodity impact as high.

Bangladesh, Thailand, and Japan could look towards Australia, which has been upping its LNG production capacity. Australia still remains the largest exporter of LNG to Asia, with a 30% share, despite Qatar’s market stake increasing last year, making it the region’s second largest supplier.

What’s the differentiating factor? “For India and Pakistan, being deprived of Qatari LNG has more impact for them because they would need to venture far away from the supply basin,” Heintz explained. “Whereas for Southeast Asia, on top of the existing volumes that Qatar is supplying, the natural sellers are Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia because of the proximity.”

At the end of the day, it’s not only proximity, but it’s also going to be about cost. US supplies could be tapped as an alternative option to an LNG supply crunch, but its capacity limitations may not allow it to handle filling the volume-gap. “Some US LNG, although it’s very far, will be delivered. The spot LNG volumes will be delivered to those remote places. The consequences of that, of course, is that it will sponge up some volume in the Atlantic Basin, because if some US volumes are diverted to markets that do not receive Qatari LNG East of Suez, that means that there’s going to be less US LNG in the Atlantic Basin,” Heintz clarified.

Uninsured waters

Ins. cover pulled amid uncertainty in the Strait: As we await clarity on what will happen to the Strait of Hormuz, ins. providers are already pulling cover from the Gulf. Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard, the London P&I Club, and the American Club all issued cancellation notices, effective 5 March, that switch off war risk cover for ships trading in Iranian, Gulf, and adjacent waters.

The market is shifting toward negotiated pricing, with Skuld flagging a buyback option for owners who still want to trade in the zone, and brokers flagging negotiated coverage at higher rates. Prices could jump by as much as 50%.

What’s next?

Transit risks through Hormuz are already a reality. “Some energy tankers still continue through the waterway, but transits will likely slow over the coming days, impacting actual supplies for crude oil and LNG,” Schmit explained.

Shipping rates and ins. costs will only make this more difficult, as those are impacted as well. “The full damage to supply curtailments will take a few days to become visible and depends largely on how risky actual transit through the strait remains,” she said.

Insurers have warned they will cancel war-risk coverage and raise premiums sharply. “The ins. costs are so high that no vessel can afford or wants to risk going through the Strait at this time,” Kpler Opec+ and Middle East head analyst Said Bakr said. We can start to “think about [Hormuz] like the Red Sea situation, or even worse than that,” Pavlov added.

We’re keeping an eye on GCC infrastructure resilience. If critical export infrastructure –– particularly Jebel Ali or Ras Tanura –– is impacted by Iran’s strikes, a severe and instant supply chain impact would be felt.

Background

At least 150 crude oil and LNG tankers are currently idle off the coasts of the UAE, Oman, and Kuwait. Major shipping giants Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, Nippon Yusen, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha have suspended all transits through the waterway.

A couple of vessels traversed the strait –– mainly Iranian and Chinese ships –– indicating that the lane isn’t completely shut off, according to data shared by Pavlov. That said, “indiscriminate shooting from Iranian coast guard ships, with some reports of having hit Iranian vessels themselves,” are dissuading anyone from entering the passage. Ships have already been targeted for “ illegally ” passing through the strait.

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Data is the new oil — and it’s under fire too

If you’ve had a hard time opening a favorite website, placing an order online, or getting into your bank accounts the past couple of days, odds are you can thank the ongoing regional war — two major regional data centers experienced outages, with one appearing to have come after it was hit by falling debris from a drone or missile interception.

Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank confirmed yesterday that “regional IT disruptions” were behind problems clients were having accessing its mobile banking and contact center services. We were also impacted: EnterpriseAM.com is one of the many services hosted on AWS out of the UAE, and our site was down for more than a day after the incident, forcing us to use a backup in another jurisdiction.

Why it matters: Data center outages in the UAE and Bahrain were a wake-up call for the digital economy, exposing centralized data centers as a critical infrastructure vulnerability that businesses across MENA had previously ignored. The attacks on data centers will also challenge the Gulf’s image as a secure hub for AI infrastructure — and could yet force a reassessment of physical security risks amid multi-bn-USD data center investments in both the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

What happened?

An Amazon Web Services (AWS) data center in Dubai caught fire on Sunday morning after being struck by unspecified “objects,” prompting the local fire department to cut power to the facility, including backup generators. The incident occurred on the same day Iranian ballistic missiles struck targets across the GCC, including the UAE and Bahrain.

Is it really that simple? AWS services are designed to withstand a single data center failure, but the outage spread to a second group of data centers, triggering a double failure that bypassed standard redundancies. At the same time, a power failure in Bahrain knocked out a single zone, taking other racks offline.

As of Monday night, we understand that full restoration of the two damaged data center zones will take at least another day, with both physical cooling and power systems undergoing repairs.

Why it matters

Data centers and their supporting energy infrastructure are now targets of war on par with oil and gas facilities. Taking them down is a fast way to disrupt government services, businesses, and financial institutions, raising the cost of the conflict — something Tehran seems keen to do.

The data center landscape is highly centralized, Saudi semiconductor design company Rimal’s CEO Houssam Salem tells EnterpriseAM, adding that a handful of companies control most on-the-ground capacity.

Regulations (and quiet pressure) on data sovereignty help keep things that way. Governments across the region have a host of reasons for wanting data about their country (and their residents and businesses) to stay within borders. In our corner of the world, the big issue of the day isn’t “data privacy” as it is in the west, but where data lives and who has access.

Simple economics also mean that clusters of data centers make good sense — until they don’t. The economics of hyperscale AI “push states toward establishing AI hubs which concentrate massive power supply, cooling capacity, and fiber connectivity co-located in a single campus to maximize efficiency,” Rihla Research & Advisory CEO Jesse Marks said in a note. While this is more economically viable, a single strike can take down an entire AI stack, as is evident by the AWS outage, calling into question how builders of AI clusters currently under construction will help harden infrastructure and design fallbacks.

Salem argues this centralization is going to change in the near future as more data centers come online across the region. Gulf states could also resort to embedding frameworks in their existing contracts with hyperscalers, allowing critical systems to be shifted to secure facilities in allied countries within minutes of a disruption, Marks suggests.

The context

Considering security risks to AI infrastructure is now a pressing priority if the UAE and Saudi want to become global hubs of compute. The GCC data center market is projected to hit USD 9.5 bn by 2030, buoyed by sovereign capital flows into hyperscale, AI-native infrastructure by the UAE’s G42 and Saudi PIF’s Humain. Humain’s data centers — currently under construction — were set to come online this year.

Regional stability is among the top selling points for those looking to attract AI investment to our part of the world. “The challenge now is to ensure that the digital infrastructure [countries in MENA] are building commands the same strategic protection they have long afforded their energy assets,” says Marks.

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Aramex now owns 100% of Hawthorne Logistics Solutions

Logistics firm Aramex acquired 100% of Ireland-based freight forwarder Hawthorne Logistics Solutions for EUR 2.5 mn, buying out individual shareholders Martin Cunningham and Terrance John Allen, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf). The fully equity-financed transaction carries a potential earnout of up to EUR 1.7 mn.

This is less about scale and more about stitching routes: The acquisition bolsters Aramex’s European freight footprint and deepens its cross-border play, with management pointing to synergies, efficiency gains, and cross-selling upside. The impact should start flowing through as early as 1Q results, they said.

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Calendar

2026

MARCH

5-6 March (Thursday-Friday): CargoIS Forum, Miami, United States.

9-13 March (Monday-Friday): World Cargo Alliance Worldwide Conference, Singapore.

10-12 March (Tuesday-Thursday): World Cargo Symposium, Lima, Peru.

18-19 March (Wednesday-Thursday): IntraLogisteX, Birmingham, United Kingdom.

18-19 March (Wednesday-Thursday): Green Marine Transport Conference, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

26 March (Thursday): Gulf Ship Finance Forum, Dubai, UAE.

APRIL

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

16-17 April (Thursday-Friday): Global Supply Chain and Logistics Summit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

28-30 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Mediterranean Ports and Logistics, Porto, Portugal.

MAY

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): The Airport Show, Dubai, UAE.

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Aviation Energy Forum (AEF), Paris, France.

19-21 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Ground Handling Conference (IGHC), Cairo, Egypt.

19-21 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Terminal Operations Conference & Exhibition, Hamburg, Germany.

JUNE

2-4 June (Tuesday-Thursday): ProPak Mena, Cairo, Egypt.

6-8 June (Saturday-Monday): IATA World Air Transport Summit, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

22-23 June (Monday-Tuesday): Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, Rotterdam, Netherlands.

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