Good morning, friends. We’re inching closer to our first weekend in 2026 with another brisk read, led by investment and trade updates from Saudi and Egypt, as well as big global updates as the US takes over Venezuelan oil supplies and cold weather halts flights in Europe.

First up: Saudi Global Ports (SGP) announced a SAR 3.5 bn investment push in Dammam in a bid to turn the Kingdom’s eastern port and logistics hub into a high-capacity alternative to competitors in the UAE. The investment, which will span container terminals and a major integrated logistics park, is a calculated move based on Dammam’s proximity to Riyadh and its growing role as a relief valve for Red Sea volatility from the last two years.

Over in Egypt, the country is working to secure a future role as an indispensable energy re-exports hub in the East Mediterranean, with two new MoUs to supply gas to Syria as the country ramps up post-war reconstruction efforts.

The big logistics stories abroad-

Uh, did the US just *literally* steal Venezuela’s oil? Oil tankers are moving from the US towards Venezuela to begin loading stranded Venezuelan oil after US President Donald Trump said Venezuela will hand over some 30-50 mn barrels of oil to the US. The sale of the cargoes could be worth around USD 3 bn at current prices.

What he said: “That money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States,” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform.

^^ The must-read on the topic: Trump: Venezuela to turn over 30-50 mn barrels of oil to US.

PLUS: People and goods movements in many parts of Europe have almost come to a halt amid snarling cold weather, prompting the mass cancellation of air and rail trips and road closures. The biting cold wave — which started earlier this week — has hit air flights in the Netherlands and France the most, as well as the UK, but to a lesser extent. The Dutch flag carrier KLM cancelled 400 flights initially scheduled for today, whereas France slashed 40% of planned flights at Paris’ Charles de Gaulle Airport and about 25% at its smaller Orly Airport.

Shortage of de-icing fluids is also making the matter worse, with KLM saying that this has been a problem across European airports this winter, not just in Amsterdam. With the extreme weather expected to last for another week, we hope this shortage brings climate adaptation discussions at airports back to the fore.

Watch this space-

LAST-MILE — UAE-based food delivery outfit Keeta, an arm of the China-growndeliverygiant Meituan, officially launched operations in Manama, Bahrain, adding to the growing list of competition in the region’s heating last-mile delivery market. The firm — which recently launched in KSA, Kuwait, and Qatar — is going all in with the launch, announcing a spate of promotions, including meal reductions, no-charge delivery at selected partner restaurants, and no subscriptions or additional fees.

What to expect: The firm’s entry into Bahrain could trigger a so-called margin clash with existing players as they compete for customers, with Meituan expected to leverage its deep pockets to promote its growing foothold in the region. This could stir up trouble for Bahrain's leading on-demand food delivery platform, Talabat, whose operations span the region. The GCC market accounted for over 80% of the firm’s total gross merchandise value last year.

The knock-on effect: PIF leveled up last-mile leader Noon’s finances to help it survive intense competition, with a USD 500 mn funding round alongside founder Mohamed Alabbar last month. Meanwhile, Amazon is also deepening its grocery push in the Gulf, and Saudi’s Ninja raised USD 250 mn to expand across the region.

YEMEN — Yemenia Airways began direct flights between Socotra Island and Jeddah today to evacuate hundreds of stranded foreign tourists after air travel was suspended due to military escalation in Hadhramaut and Al Mahra, Al Arabiya reports. The flights mark the island’s first direct commercial link with the Kingdom and expand international access that was previously limited to Abu Dhabi.

Why it matters: The new weekly route signals that Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s central government are reasserting control over southern logistics following the territorial regain.

ICYMI- Flights stalled after a 90-day state of emergency declared by Presidential Leadership Council head Rashad Al Alimi in response to the Southern Transitional Council’s (STC) seizing Hadhramaut and Al Mahra — provinces Riyadh sees as a key security buffer. This prompted limited airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen on Mukalla port, followed by the recapture of the two provinces by Saudi-backed government forces.

AVIATION — Tap Air misses divestment deadline, casting doubt on privatization timeline: The EU Commission has extended the deadline for Portugal’s Tap Air to divest from its ground handling and catering arms — a key condition for its privatization plans — to 30 June 2026. This delay puts the flag carrier in a time crunch, as privatization is currently targeted to conclude before 2026. Up till now, Qatari-backed British Airways owner IAG, Lufthansa, and Air France have expressed interest in the carrier, with formal non-binding bids expected in mid-March.

Carving out subsidiaries: The Portuguese flag carrier is required to divest its 49.9% stake in Groundforce Portugal, which it jointly owns with Menzies Aviation — Agility’s ground handling subsidiary. The EU Commission mandated this carve-out as part of a EUR 2.6 bn restructuring aid, which aims to give competing operators the capacity to expand operations at Lisbon airport, where Tap Air currently holds significant market power.

Market Watch-

Oil prices slumped this morning in the wake of the US announcement that it will take over Venezuelan crude supplies, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures fell by USD 0.81 to trade at USD 59.89 / bbl as of 05:50 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by USD 1.00 to USD 56.13 / bbl. This came on the heels of another sharp drop in oil rates from the previous trading session that saw both benchmarks fall by more than USD 1.00.

MEANWHILE- Saudi cuts crude prices across all regions for February: Aramco lowered the official selling prices for all grades to every major market, including Asia, Europe, and the US, Bloomberg reports. The move extends a third consecutive monthly cut for Asia — its biggest market — with the Arab Light premium reduced to USD 0.30 above the Oman / Dubai benchmark, while prices for heavier grades were also lowered.

IN CONTEXT- The cuts landed as Opec+ stuck to its plan to pause supply increases in 1Q. Benchmarks fell roughly 20% last year, with Brent logging its worst annual drop since 2020, as concerns over a global glut overwhelmed cartel discipline.

The signal: Across-the-board price cuts signal weaker demand than supply policy would suggest.

Baltic index downward movement continues: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — was down 21 points to 1,830 points on Monday, its lowest since July 2025. The capesize fell for the eighth day by 1.1% to 3,016 points, while the panamax index increased 0.9% to 1,304 points, and the smaller supramax index eased 32 points to 1,011 points.

Data points-

50.2 — that’s the purchasing managers’ index figure for Egypt in December, according to S&P Global (pdf). That puts the country’s non-oil private sector in expansion territory for the second month running, albeit at a slower rate than November’s 61-month high of 51.1.

Behind the number: December saw new orders and output expand again, though their pace of growth cooled from November’s highs. For the first time in 10 months, firms accelerated their purchasing activity to keep up with demand. Caution in hiring led to the sharpest drop in employment in over a year as firms focused on productivity over headcount.

Supply chain issues persisted, as vendor shortages caused input stocks to decline for the third straight month despite higher purchasing. Input cost inflation edged up slightly, driven by rising prices for fuel, cement, and wages. For the most part, companies passed on only modest price hikes despite the rise in their own costs.

54.2 — that’s the seasonally adjusted purchasing managers’ index figure for the UAE in December, according to the S&P Global UAE PMI (pdf). The reading indicates a steady and healthy improvement in the non-oil private sector, landing only 0.1 points shy of the index's long-term average of 54.3 and down from November’s reading of 54.8.

The breakdown: Business activity decelerated from its November peak as sales dipped despite strong international demand, but it was still among the strongest expansion rates seen this year. Cost pressures hit a 15-month high, which led to an increase in output charges, while reports of heightened competition signaled another headwind for the sector. Meanwhile, job creation was conservative, with employment rising only marginally, leading to a sharp buildup of work backlogs and a strong drawdown of inventories. Confidence was also at a three-year low.

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