Good morning, ladies and gents. We have another brisk read this morning, but not void of important news — led primarily by Emirates NBD’s projection on UAE’s data center capacity in the upcoming years.

PLUS: Oman, Qatar could be supplying Iraq with LNG, and more aviation projects land in Morocco.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The Marine Environment Protection Committee Extraordinary Session is on its second day and will run until this Friday, 17 October at the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) HQ in London. The session is set to see the intergovernmental body formally adopt its Net-Zero Framework — rolling out new fuel standards for ships and a global pricing mechanism for emissions.

Why this matters: The Net-Zero Framework will roll out mandatory emissions limits and greenhouse gas pricing across the entire shipping sector, including large ocean-going ships over 5k gross tonnage that account for 85% of international shipping’s emissions. The framework was adopted last April and would oblige the global shipping industry — which is responsible for 3% of the world’s GHG emissions — to reduce and pay for a portion of its emissions. It is expected to come into effect in 2027.

A rift among IMO members: The draft was passed with support from 63 countries including China and Brazil. Sixteen countries voted against — nine of which were from our region, including Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. The US threatened IMO members with retaliation last August, and renewed its warnings last week, threatening visa restrictions and sanctions to retaliate against nations that vote in favor, Reuters reported on Saturday.

#2- The Iraq International Transportation & Airports & Logistics Expo & Conference will open its doors today until Friday, 17 October in Baghdad. The expo — Iraq’s first platform focused exclusively on transport and logistics services — is expected to feature over 100 exhibitors, including ports, aviation, road, and rail players as well as logistics tech firms.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Turkish Airlines might be dumping Boeing for Airbus: Turkey’s flagship carrier Turkish Airlines is mulling switching its recently announced Boeing 737 Max jet order to Airbus aircraft if talks with engine supplier CFM grind to a halt, Chairman Ahmet Bolat told Reuters last week. The Turkish carrier is in current discussions with CFM on costs — if no agreement is reached, Turkish Airlines is set to tap Airbus and engine manufacturer Pratt and Whitney for engine contracts for the A320neo line.

Things were just looking up for the two…: Turkish Airlines recently finalized a large order of 75 Boeing 787 Dreamliner jets scheduled for delivery between 2029 and 2034.

…but it was expected: The order — while still major — wound up being much smaller than originally planned. Up to 150 737 Max jets — previously floated as part of the order — were missing from the finalized agreement. Boeing appeared optimistic, saying that it wrapped up negotiations with Turkish Airlines for up to 150 737 Max airplanes, but added that talks are still ongoing with CFM International over the engine component.

#2- Iraq’s Grand Faw Port draws int’l appetite: The Iraqi government has received requests from international companies to establish facilities for handling iron, steel, and grain at Iraq’s southern Grand Faw Port, General Company for Ports Director General Farhan Al Fartousi told the Iraq News Agency. A specific request by one of the companies — none of whom were named — entails a grain handling station with a capacity of 3-4 mn tons, comprising silos and mills, Al Fartousi said.

ALSO- Baghdad is working to establish a governmental authority to manage all projects related to its Grand Faw Port as well as its Development Road megaproject, Al Fartousi reportedly said. The government is also considering creating a private company under the Iraq Development Fund to enable easier investment in the country.

#3- Iran, Russia, and Azerbaijan have agreed to boost cargo traffic through their territories, Iran’s Mehr News reports, citing Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk. The tripartite agreement aims to streamline cargo movement between the Barents and Baltic Seas and the Arabian Gulf, allowing countries to establish a common commodity market with accessible logistics.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices declined this morning as IEA projections of a 2026 surplus and US-China trade tensions worry investors, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures declined USD 0.21 to USD 62.18 / bbl as of 04.25 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) shed USD 0.16 to trade at USD 58.54 / bbl.

What the IEA is penciling in: Global oil supply is set to surge by 3 mn bbl / d in 2025 — up from previous forecasts of 2.7 mn bbl / d — followed by another 2.4 mn bbl / d increase in 2026, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest monthly report. The rise will be driven by higher production from Opec+ members and others outside the group.

Supply is rising faster than demand: The IEA trimmed its forecast for world oil demand growth this year to some 700k bbl / d, 40k bbl / d lower than its previous estimate, citing weaker macroeconomic conditions. Consumption is expected to stay muted through 2025 and 2026, with annual growth averaging around 700k bbl / d.

The IEA is signaling a growing supply glut, with global output in September already up by 5.6 mn bbl / d from a year ago — 3.1 mn bbl / d of which came from Opec+. If current trends hold, global supply is estimated to exceed demand by some 4 mn bbl / d next year, compared to around 3.3 mn bbl / d last month.

That’s not what Opec said: In its monthly oil report, the group kept its global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.3 mn bbl / d for 2025 and 1.4 mn bbl / d for 2026 — almost double the IEA’s — arguing that global supply is expected to match demand next year as the group continues to boost production.

#2- Baltic index continues to rise upwards: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — slipped nearly 5.7% to 2,022 points yesterday. The capesize fell by 11.4% to 3,007 points, while the panamax index climbed 0.5% to 1,815. The smaller supramax index increased 0.6%to 1,408.

PSA-

Hapag-Lloyd to roll out PSS: Shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd will add a new peak season surcharge (PSS) of USD 250 (EUR 215) per 20-ft container and of USD 300 (EUR 260) per 40-ft container on all types of equipment headed to Dakar, Senegal, according to a statement. The PSS will be effective starting 27 October for containers coming from the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Oceania, Europe, and the Indian Subcontinent.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Morocco will host the International Forum and Expo on Mobility, Transport, and Logistics (Logiterre) tomorrow through to Saturday, 18 October in Casablanca. Logiterre will host main operators within the industry from West and Central Africa.

The UAE will host the Adipec Maritime and Logistics Exhibition and Conference on Monday, 3 November until Thursday, 6 November in Abu Dhabi. The conference will host over 250k attendees working in government entities, finance, and tech.

The UAE will host the Air Cargo Forum on Tuesday, 4 November until Thursday, 6 November in Abu Dhabi. The forum — hosted by Etihad Cargo — will bring together air freight industry leaders, policymakers, innovators, and stakeholders to discuss industry solutions, tech, strategies, and collaborative initiatives for global air logistics.

Egypt will host the TransMea Expo on Sunday, 9 November until Tuesday, 11 November in Cairo. The expo will host regional and international players in the transport industry to explore tech, new smart solutions and products for transport and logistics services.

The UAE will host the Dubai Airshow on Monday, 17 November until Friday, 21 November in Dubai. The event will host over 1.5k exhibitors and 148k industry experts from over 150 countries, to discuss air mobility, new MRO breakthroughs, sustainable aviation, startups and new tech for aircraft simulations.

Saudi Arabia will host the ShipTek International Conference and Awards on Tuesday, 18 November in Al Khobar. The conference will host policy makers, organizations, suppliers and experts on maritime, offshore and oil and gas.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

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