The Trump administration is intensifying efforts to undercut China’s exports by targeting transshipment networks, raising tariffs and tightening supply-chain rules on goods routed through third countries, according to Bloomberg analysts. This strategy risks choking off 70% of China’s exports to the US — equivalent to over 2.1% of China’s GDP.
Since Trump’s first trade war during his first term, China has increasingly leaned on countries like Vietnam, Mexico, and parts of the EU for finishing goods or components bound for the US, in a bid to cushion the blow of US tariffs. China’s share of value-added manufacturing via third countries rose 22% in 2023, up from 14% in 2017, according to Bloomberg Economics.
Away from China or else: Trump’s administration is threatening to slap 25-40% tariffs on goods from Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, and Thailand to enforce his terms — including curbing China’s exports — in trade negotiations ahead of his 1 August deadline. Vietnam was the first Asian country to yield, accepting an agreement that puts a flat 20% tariff and a 40% levy on transshipped goods, drawing Beijing’s criticism.
The war extends beyond Asia: The US reached an agreement with the UK in May that included security requirements for steel and pharma products, terms which were seen as an attempt to push Chinese products out of British supply chains. “Co-operation between states should not be conducted against or to the detriment of the interests of third parties,” China’s foreign ministry told the Financial Times at the time.
Business backpedal: Economists warn that enhanced tariffs or new supply‑chain mandates could significantly disrupt China’s export activity and dent long-term growth. There’s also concern that tighter rules could make international firms more hesitant to rely on Chinese components or production, harming business confidence and investment.
Yet enforcement faces its own challenges. The US definitions of “localized goods” remain vague, and verification protocols for origin remain underdeveloped, Bloomberg analysts say. The success of the policy will hinge on enforcement capabilities and compliance of third-country partners.