Lebanon, Kuwait, and Qatar’s non-oil private sectors see mixed results in June

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What we're tracking today

TODAY: Telecom disruption in Egypt + More June PMI readings roll in

Good morning, ladies and gents. It’s a calm news morning on the logistics front, leaving us with a handful of trade and shipping updates from around the region. In Egypt, a fire broke out in the Ramses telecoms data center yesterday disrupting mobile service, internet connectivity, and banking services across the country. We’ll have more on this story in the news well below, but first, an update from Trump tariff land…

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY- Brics in Trump’s crosshairs: US President Donald Trump has threatened an additional 10% tariff on nations affiliated with the Brics bloc in response to what he said were the coalition’s “anti-American” policies. The threat comes after the bloc indirectly slammed the US protectionist trade policies, describing them as “inconsistent” with the World Trade Organization, in a statement that came out from the bloc’s Rio De Janeiro summit on Sunday. Meanwhile, Brazil — one of Brics’ top members — and Washington are set to resume tariff negotiations this week after discussions stalled last week over a Brazilian proposal to trim some of the US tariffs. Egypt, the UAE, and Iran are all members of the bloc.

ALSO- US pushes baseline tariff deadline: Negotiators hoping to finalize a trade agreement with the US will now have an extra three weeks to hammer out their agreements after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the US’ universal baseline tariffs will be rolled out on 1 August — instead of the previous 9 July deadline.

What now? Countries that have already secured agreements with the US will still see the negotiated duties drop on 9 July, whereas other countries will be up against Liberation Day rates if they fail to reach an agreement by 1 August. Tariff letters are being delivered from Monday to Tuesday, while trade agreements will be announced till the deadline.

The run before the [tariff] cliff: The US has been reportedly working to finalize a number of bilateral trade agreements ahead of the initial 9 July tariff deadline, but talks for some 10-12 agreements — out of 18 currently under negotiation — could linger until Labor Day in September before they are finalized, Bessent noted late last month.

This story got moderate ink in the int’l press: Bloomberg | The Guardian | France 24 | Reuters | CNBC News

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Telecom meltdown in Egypt: A fire at the Ramses telecoms data center disrupted mobile service, internet connectivity, and banking services across Egypt yesterday causing “limited” flight delays, according to a Cabinet statement. Operations have since returned to normal at Cairo International Airport, with all passenger terminals operating normally and all flights that had been affected by the outage taking off, the ministry said this morning.

We still don’t know the full impact on other transportation and logistics services. Some reports suggested that the ticketing system in rail and subway ticketing systems were reportedly impacted, El Watan reports, but no details have emerged on freight and shipping disruptions.

Two floors of the data center affected by the fire housed technical equipment connecting many Telecom Egypt services, National Telecom Regulatory Authority (NTRA) official Mohamed Ibrahim said in a televised appearance on Amr Adib’s El Hekaya last night (watch, runtime: 6:35). “There are other telecoms data centers of similar size and importance capable of performing the one in Ramses’ role, and we’ve already started shifting all traffic and lines to alternative centers to gradually restore services,” he added.

Where things stand: Broadband services have been moved entirely to El Rawda, NTRA said. The most recent update from Netblocks, which tracks global internet connectivity, suggests that connectivity levels across the country are at “44% of ordinary levels,” falling from an earlier report that connectivity was at 62% of ordinary levels.

The fire received coverage in Reuters, Bloomberg, and The Associated Press.

#2- Twenty-two people onboard a commercial vessel have been rescued by an AD Ports-operated ship following a distress call, after it came under attack by the Houthis in the Red Sea, UAE’s state news agency Wam reports. The vessel — Magic Seas — was attacked by gunfire, rockets, and explosive-laden remote-controlled boats, and the Houthis claimed it had sunk following the attack, Reuters reports.

The incident marks the return of Houthi attacks on ships in the maritime passageway after a period of calm, and it comes just hours after the Israeli military launched strikes on three Yemeni ports — Hodeidah, Ras Isa, and Salif ports — in retaliation to missiles fired at Israel from Yemen. Israel also attacked the Galaxy Leader ship in Ras Isa port and Ras Qantib power plant.

We were on our toes: Israel threatened the Iran-backed group last month with a naval and air blockade if attacks were to continue — after it pushed for an evacuation of the Houthi-controlled ports of Ras Isa, Hodeidah, and Salif.

#3- Egypt is looking to increase its imports of Israeli gas by 200 mcf/d to meet rising summer demand, a government source told EnterpriseAM. Though an agreement is in place to boost supplies to both Egypt and Jordan, flows remain at their usual seasonal level of 800–850 mcf/d due to high domestic consumption in Israel. Talks are expected to resume soon to activate the agreed increase, especially as Egypt works to strengthen its regasification infrastructure.

ICYMI- Egypt has secured gas supplies to all sectors through four floating storage and regasification units this summer with a combined capacity of 2.7 bcf/d, the Oil Ministry confirmed earlier this week. A fifth unit — to be shared with Jordan through the Arab Gas Pipeline — is also currently en route to Aqaba Port in Jordan.

#4- Oman breaks ground on OMR 47 mn Izki-Nizwa road project: Oman’s Transport, Communications, and Information Technology Ministry (MTCIT) has begun construction work on the 32 km-long Izki-Nizwa dual carriageway project, Oman Observer reports. The project will start from the Southern Qarout roundabout in the Wilayat of Izki and end in the Wilayat of Nizwa’s Farq area. The construction will also include 3 km of service roads.

Background: The MTCIT awarded the project’s construction contract to Galfar Engineering and Construction back in October. The project is set to see the addition of a 1.2 km dualized road to connect the project to Sanaw Bridge on Thuwayni, a vehicle underpass, and another 0.9 km road leading to Jabal Al Akhdar. It will also include installing 10 roundabouts and vehicle underpasses.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices went down this morning amid market uncertainty over the impact of the US’s latest tariff plans and Opec+’s production hike for August, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures dropped USD 0.22 to USD 69.36 a barrel by 03.30 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures dipped by USD 0.27 to trade at USD 67.66 a barrel. The morning rate drop came after prices rallied by about 2% in an earlier session.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs is predicting that eight Opec+ members will increase oil production quotas by 550k bbl / d in September, completing the reversal of the 2.2 mn bbl / d voluntary cuts, Reuters reports, citing a note from the bank. The move would bring the group’s production to some 33 mn bbl / d by September.

The bank kept its Brent crude forecast unchanged at USD 59 / bbl for 4Q this year and USD 56 / bbl for next year. The forecast reflects a balancing act between lower-than-expected supply from producers like Russia and shrinking spare capacity — both supportive of prices — against downside pressures from a potential rollback of the 1.65 mn bbl / d Opec+ post-pandemic cuts and a 30% probability of a US recession.

Goldman also flagged upside risks to demand, projecting global oil consumption to increase by 600k bbl / d this year and by 1 mn bbl / d next year. Key drivers include strong demand from China, sustained global economic momentum, and further depreciation of the greenback.

REMEMBER- Opec+ agreed to raise production by 548k bbl / d in August, accelerating its plan to return supply to the market and exceeding analyst expectations

DATA POINT-

Oman’s Shinas Port in North Al Batinah handled roughly 361k tons of goods in 1H 2025, the Oman News Agency reports, citing the port’s Executive Director Khatir Al Ma’amari. The port handled around 354k tons of imports and 7k tons of exports, with 1.2k tons of general cargo being imported and around 4k of general cargo exported.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Intermodal Africa will kick off on Tuesday, 22 July and run till Thursday, 24 July in Beira, Mozambique. The forum will host over 300 senior government officials, industry leaders, academics, senior executives, and harbor masters in the ports, shipping, and logistics sector. Attendees and speakers will be coming from countries across the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.

Transport Middle East 2025 will kick off on Monday, 1 September and will run till Wednesday, 3 September in Salalah, Oman. The conference will host 35 international speakers and over 50 exhibitors from the maritime sector to discuss global transportation and logistics.

The Sustainable Maritime Industry Conference will take place on 3-4 September at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Jeddah. The event is set to gather over 60 speakers and more than 3k participants to discuss maritime decarbonization, digital transformation, regulatory frameworks, capacity building, and sustainable practices.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

How Kuwait, Qatar and Lebanon's non-oil private sector fared in June

How Kuwait, Qatar and Lebanon 's non-oil private sector fared in June: Purchasing manager indices (PMI) tracking non-energy sectors brought mixed results across the three countries in June. Both Qatar and Kuwait successfully stayed in the positive territories, albeit Kuwait saw a dip in the growth rate, while Lebanon remained in the contraction territory.

REMEMBER- The all-important 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth. Anything above 50 denotes expansion, while anything below indicates contraction.

KUWAIT-

Non-oil activity in Kuwait saw a slight slowdown in June, yet “still signalling a solid monthly

improvement in business conditions” for the month, according to S&P Global’s PMI (pdf). Kuwait’s headline reading fell to 53.1 in June from 53.9 in May. While Kuwait’s PMI June reading puts the country above the 50.0 mark for healthy growth for its tenth consecutive month, it is still below April’s 54.2 reading — the highest headline figure for the nation in over five months.

New orders continued to expand at a marked pace at the end of 2Q 2025, leading to a record increase in employment as companies worked to manage their workloads, according to the report. Firms also saw their output increase, though the rates of expansion in both new orders and output eased. Total new business got a boost from a series record increase in new export orders, the report noted.

Input costs accelerated in June, meaning that firms increased selling prices for the fourth consecutive month. This led to the fastest pace of output price inflation in a year, despite efforts to price competitively, the report added. "Sustained rises in workloads and increasing confidence for the year ahead have been good news for the Kuwaiti labour market, with companies looking to take on additional staff to keep on top of orders,” S&P Global’s Andrew Harker stated in the report. “That said, even a series record rise in employment in June wasn't enough to prevent a further build-up of outstanding business, suggesting further capacity enhancements may be needed in the months ahead,” Harker added.

Price cuts boost non-oil business growth, confidence surges: “Price discounting and improved marketing strategies are expected to help lead to further increases in non-oil business activity over the next 12 months,” the report read, noting that “business confidence strengthened for the second month running and was the highest since May 2024.”

QATAR-

Non-oil activity in Qatar continued its positive trend in June, with the S&P Global PMI (pdf) remaining above the no-change mark of 50.0 for the eighteenth consecutive month. Qatar’s headline reading increased to 52.0 in June from 50.8 in May, indicating the strongest overall rate of growth since March. This expansion was bolstered by a further rapid increase in hiring

and renewed growth in activity.

The decline in new orders and input stocks as well as faster suppliers' delivery times weighed on overall business conditions, according to the report. “Growth remained modest overall, however, as the PMI has not beaten its long-run average of 52.2 so far this year. This can mainly be attributed to intermittent and muted growth of output and new orders, with the non-energy sector not registering concurrent growth in these two indicators since December 2024,” S&P Global’s Trevor Balchin said in the report.

Employment saw one of its strongest increases in the eight-year survey history, which is partly attributed to “efforts to address a faster build-up in outstanding work,” the report noted. Qatari firms also continued to increase wages and salaries at a marked pace in June. This “ongoing hiring was corroborated by another rise in outstanding business in June, and at the fastest rate since last October,” Balchin said.

Firms maintain an optimistic outlook: “Companies in the non-energy private sector remained optimistic regarding the 12-month outlook for activity in June. Confidence was linked to economic development in sectors including real estate, construction and industry, and to growth of the expat population, international investment and tourism. Sentiment moderated since May, however, and was below the long-run survey average since 2017,” the report read.

Gulf non-oil sectors conclude 2Q 2025 robustly, but headwinds loom: The Gulf’s non-oil sectors wrapped the 2Q 2025 with strong performance, despite the coinciding regional escalation between Iran and Israel. However, signs pointing to a softening of activity ahead. “Tensions have since eased, but there may be a lingering drag on activity due to security fears which, coupled with oil prices back below $70pb reducing the scope for fiscal support, means that non-oil GDP growth is likely to soften in the coming quarters,” Capital Economics’ James Swanston wrote in a research note seen by EnterpriseAM.

The UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait are set to maintain fiscal policy supportive, thanks to their strong balance sheets, Swanston noted. In contrast, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Bahrain face an upcoming period of fiscal consolidation, which is expected to cause non-oil growth to slow, Swanston added.

OVER IN LEBANON-

Lebanese non-energy private sector remained in the contraction area in June, yet the pace of decline eased slightly from May, according to Blominvest Bank’s Lebanon PMI (pdf). The nation’s headline figure registered 49.2 in June, an uptick from 48.9 in May. Despite the slight increase, it remains below the 50.0 no-change mark for the fourth consecutive month.

New orders continued to fall in June, “with the rate of reduction consistent with the average trend observed during 2Q 2025, the report noted. This decline was attributed to security risks in the region on the back of the conflict between Israel and Iran. Export sales also saw a moderate decrease, yet not as sharp as it was in May. “The escalation of the war between Iran and Israel resulted in weaker customer sales and client cancellations, leading to a drop in business activity,” Blominvest Bank’s Fadi Osseiran wrote in the report.

Input cost pressures intensified once more in June, which was largely attributed to higher prices paid for purchased inputs, the report noted. “Purchase prices incurred by companies surged at the fastest pace in eight months, and these increases were passed to their clients,” Osseiran stated, adding that “what is unfortunate is the sharp drop in the Future Output Index, revealing pessimism at private sector companies regarding future outlook, as 53% of respondents expect activity levels to diminish in the upcoming 12 months.”

Business confidence plummets to seven month-low: Firms’ sentiment regarding the 12-

month outlook for output worsened sharply from May,“ with firms in general predicting activity to fall,” the report noted, adding that “the degree of pessimism was the greatest observed since November 2024.”

Global trade uncertainty could further cement UAE’s position as trade, re-export hub

Volatile global trade regimes could be a boon for UAE: Global trade tensions, fueled by rising protectionism, are set to fuel the UAE’s push for more comprehensive trade agreements with trading partners. These agreements are more than ink on paper, they signify the UAE’s strategic push to cement its strategy and role as an indispensable and resilient trade and re-export hub amid global uncertainty, several sources told Arabian Gulf Business Insight last week.

UAE’s hot CEPA season: The UAE has polished off talks on 27 CEPAs. Around eight of them are already in effect, including with Turkey, India, and Indonesia. The UAE also has 14 CEPAs inked and awaiting ratification — including with Vietnam, South Korea, Australia, the Central African Republic, and Chile, while others are still on the negotiation table.

The drivers: Uncertain global trade environments are expected to incentivize countries to lock down freetrade agreements with the UAE to act as a “buffer against disruptions” and ensure stability, US-based Terner Consulting geopolitical analyst Steven Terner noted. With the UAE already functioning as a gateway of trade between several key markets, such agreements would “[allow] countries to route export to the UAE’s wide entire network” of freetrade partners, Gordon said.

The UAE’s network of CEPAs offers access to markets with some 2.5 bn individuals, positioning the Gulf country a highly attractive destination for multinational companies to invest in the UAE as a global sales hub, London-based Albright Stonebridge Group associate partner Ben Gordon told the news outlet.

The UAE’s active CEPAs added around AED 135 bn to non-oil trade, which increased 42% y-o-y in 2024. Emirati foreign trade also rose 14.6% y-o-y in 2024 — well above the global average of 2%, Emirati state news agency Wam reported, citing government data.

UAE’s CEPA with India, Turkey are case in point: Non-oil trade between India and the UAE has surged 20% since the UAE-India trade agreement came into effect in 2022, Terner said. The UAE’s exports to India rose 75% by the end of 2024, he added. Since signing a CEPA with Turkey and Indonesia in 2023, Emirati trade with both countries has soared — with Turkey up 11% and Indonesia up 15%, Terner said.

What’s next? The UAE is forecast to ink a CEPA with South America’s Mercosur bloc — featuring Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Bolivia — by end-2025. The nation is also finalizing several local agreements with Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, Ukraine, the Eurasian Economic Union, the EU, and Malaysia .

The question of China: The UAE is carrying out a balancing act in which “they maintain a close economic and diplomatic relationship with China but they don’t attract too much ire from President Trump,” AGBI reports, quoting Tulane University assistant professor Andrew Leber as saying. While China stands out as a major trading partner for the UAE, it is reasonable to assume that they will avoid forming a CEPA with them “for now,” he added.

Updates on shipping, maritime, zones, debt, last-mile delivery, and aviation from across the region

SHIPPING + MARITIME-

SCI could buy two Milaha vessels: The Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) has agreed to acquire two second-hand Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGC) that are slated to enter its fleet in 3Q 2025, according to a regulatory disclosure (pdf) published last week. The vessels in question may belong to Qatar Navigation (Milaha) and are valued at USD 127 mn, according to unconfirmed reports by Maritime Gateway. Each carrier has a carrying capacity of 82k cbm, the news outlet adds.

ZONES-

Opaz secures Ezad development agreements: Oman’s Public Authority for Special Economic Zones and Freezone (Opaz) has inked seven agreements and MoUs to upgrade the Economic Zone at Al Dhahira (Ezad), according to a statement.

Notable agreements: A OMR 22.3 mn construction contract was awarded to an Omani-Saudi consortium — which includes Circa, Pladco, and Gonk — to establish main roads and a surface water drainage system within Ezad, with a 24-month implementation period. Opaz also inked an MoU with Sohar International Bank to cooperate on economic solutions to financially restructure current and future projects for the zone. The MoU will allow the bank to expedite operations such as registration for investors looking to invest in Opaz.

ICYMI- The Saudi Fund for Development inked a SAR 1.2 bn (c. USD 319.9 mn) agreement back in 2023 to finance the construction of Ezad’s infrastructure. The first phase of the zone will cover 20 sq km and is expected to boost trade with Saudi Arabia.

DEBT WATCH-

Fitch Ratings has affirmed OQ’s long-term issuer default rating at BB+ — maintaining the firm’s positive outlook, according to a statement published last week. The assessment is linked to Oman’s sovereign rating as the company is solely owned by the Oman Investment Authority.

The rationale: Strong oversight by the Omani government partially accounts for the rating, along with the absence of any privatization plans. Continuous backing by the government — in the form of equity injections and asset transfers — shows a strong precedent of support, the statement read.

AVIATION-

Abu Dhabi Crown Prince meets Brazil’s Embraer CEO: Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan held talks with Brazilian aerospace firm Embraer ’s CEO Francisco Gomes Neto in Rio de Janeiro, on the sidelines of the Brics summit, state news agency Wam reports. The two discussed ways to improve research and development initiatives in aviation technology, as well as technical collaboration on aircraft maintenance.

LAST MILE-

UAE-based smart package delivery company RedBox plans to expand its network of smart lockers and pickup counters from 1.8k to 3k by year-end, with a longer-term goal of reaching 10k across the region in five years, according to a press release. The company also plans to double its current shipment volume of 10 mn parcels within three years.

About RedBox: Founded in 2019, the company provides smart delivery solutions across 81 cities, including 35 new cities added this year alone. The company targets Bahrain, the UAE and other gulf countries for expansion in the short-term.

Canada acts as an LNG hub for Malaysian Petronas’ Asia shipments

Petronas ships inaugural cargo from Canada plant: Malaysia’s state-owned oil and gas firm Petronas has shipped its first liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo from a newly-established facility in Canada to Japan, Reuters reports. An undisclosed volume of LNG departed the Kitimat LNG plant — in which Petronas has a 25% stake — heading to Japan aboard the 174k cm Puteri Sejinjang LNG vessel.

Latest from Petronas: Petronas was set to plug some USD 300 mn alongside Shell in ongoing drilling operations in Egypt’s West Delta Deep Marine concession earlier this year. This followed the company’s 15-year sales and purchase agreement with the UAE’s Adnoc late last year, which will supply the Malaysian company with 1 mn tons of LNG annually from Adnoc’s LNG project in Al Ruwais.

MET amps up its gas storage portfolio: Swiss energy firm MET Group wholly acquired German natural gas storage operator KGE at an undisclosed figure, according to a statement. The move has bolstered MET’s gas storage capacity by 2 TWh across three German facilities. KGE operates a gas cavern storage facility with a 179 mn cmt capacity, which is linked to the Trading Hub Europe market zone.

About MET: Situated in Switzerland, MET Group has presence in over 17 countries through its several subsidiaries, boasts 32 national gas markets, and has 44 international trading hubs. Its portfolio primarily consists of operating green as well as flexible net total trade volume of natural gas amounted to 140 BCM in 2024.

Calendar

JULY

22-24 July (Tuesday-Thursday): Intermodal Africa, Beira, Mozambique.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Monday-Wednesday): Transport Middle East 2025, Salalah, Oman.

3-4 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Sustainable Maritime Industry Conference, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

4-10 September (Thursday-Wednesday): Intra-African Trade Fair, Algiers, Algeria.

7-10 September (Sunday-Wednesday): Comex Global Technology Show, Muscat, Oman.

24-26 September (Wednesday-Friday): Routes World, Hong Kong.

25 September (Thursday): World Maritime Day 2025.

30 September - 2 October (Monday-Thursday): Global Rail Transport Infrastructure Exhibition and Conference, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

OCTOBER

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is set to formally adopt the Net-zero Framework this month, stipulating new fuel standards for ships and a global pricing mechanism for emissions.

1-2 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Saudi Maritime & Logistics Congress, Dammam, Saudi Arabia.

7-8 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global EV & Mobility Technology (GEMTECH) Forum, Riyadh.

13 - 17 October (Monday-Friday): The Marine Environment Protection Committee’s second extraordinary session, London, UK.

14-15 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Investing in Africa Conference and Expo, London, UK.

28-30 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Borneo International Maritime Week, Sarawak, Malaysia.

NOVEMBER

3-6 November (Monday-Thursday): ADIPEC Maritime and Logistics Exhibition and Conference, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

4-6 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Air Cargo Forum, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

17-21 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Airshow, Dubai, UAE.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday) The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Mid-2025: Iraq will complete phase one of the construction of the Grand Faw Port.

DHL and Aramco’s logistics and procurement hub in Saudi Arabia will commence operations.

AD Ports-operated Safaga Port’s multi-purpose terminal will become operational.

Phase 3 of APM Terminals Tangier MedPort to be complete and operational.

1Q 2025: Sadr Park’s Logistics Center in Riyadh to be completed.

1Q 2025: Phase two of Jafza Logistics Park to be completed.

2026

27-29 January (Tuesday-Thursday) Transport Middle East 2026, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

28-30 April (Tuesday-Thursday) Mediterranean Ports and Logistics, Porto, Portugal.

24-26 June (Wednesday-Friday) Transport Logistic & Air Cargo 2026, Shanghai, China.

7-9 July (Tuesday-Thursday) Asean Ports and Logistics, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

17-19 November (Tuesday-Thursday) Intermodal Africa 2026, Luanda, Angola.

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.

2027

4Q 2027: Oman’s Musandam Airport construction to be completed.

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