Good morning, friends. We have a brisk read this morning, with investment and trade updates from Saudi Arabia and Egypt. But first, an update on the widespread air flights disruptions caused by regional tensions…
THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY- Airspace disruptions above Gulf skies send Airlines scrambling: Tensions in the region have wreaked havoc for the aviation industry, sending a growing list of regional and global airlines scrambling to reroute and reschedule flights amid increasingly unsafe skies in the region. Flights transiting through Doha and Dubai — both essential international transit hubs for Asia-Europe-America flights — were among the most impacted, with Air India recently suspending all flights heading to Europe and North America.
Peaking: The disruptions peaked in the early morning after Iran launched strikes against the US’ Al Udeid military base in Qatar, prompting a brief airspace closure in Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait. About 20 Doha-bound and four Dubai-bound aircraft were diverted as a result of the strikes.
An end might be in sight: Hopes for calm are high this morning after the US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had reached a tentative ceasefire, hinting at a complete “end” to hostilities after 24 hours. However, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi disputed the claims on X, saying that no ceasefire agreement has been reached as of 3:45 this morning.
We already have some good signs: Flights to and from the UAE and Qatar should now be back to normal, Bloomberg reports. British Airways, which had suspended flights to Dubai earlier on Monday, has also resumed flights, the National reports. Bahrain and Kuwait also announced they are reopening their airspace this morning.
REMEMBER- Airlines have been choosing to fly through Afghan airspaces over traditional airspaces in the region to bypass jamming and safety risks caused by the Israel-Iran conflict. This has caused a 500% surge in flights through Afghanistan's airspace last week, averaging 280 flights per day since Israel’s strikes on 13 June, compared to 50 flights per day in May.
This story grabbed a lot of ink in int’l press: Reuters | CNBC | USA Today | BBC | The Guardian
HAPPENING TODAY-
Mobility Live Middle East returns to Dubai on Tuesday and Wednesday at the Dubai World Trade Center, spotlighting future transport. The trade event will bring together regional mobility leaders for keynotes, panel sessions, and an expo featuring autonomous tech, smart cities, and public transport.
Middle East Rail will run in parallel on Tuesday and Wednesday at Dubai World Trade Center, bringing together transport ministries, rail operators, and tech firms for discussions and exhibitions on high-speed networks, digitalisation, and transit infrastructure.
HAPPENING THIS WEEK-
Global Transport Connectivity Forum will kick off in Istanbul, Turkey, on Friday, 27 June and run to Sunday, 29 June. The forum will address climate change, transport connectivity, and global transport corridors. It will host ministers, industry leaders, and executives of financial institutions and organizations.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
[wwtt4] #1- Greece, Japanese firms advise caution around Hormuz: Greece’s Shipping Ministry warned vessel owners to reconsider using different routes to the Strait of Hormuz until regional geopolitical tensions settle, Bloomberg reports, citing a document sent to unnamed vessel owners it has seen. Greece — which tops the world in oil tanker capacity — also asked shippers in the country to take high precautionary security measures while keeping a distance from Iranian waters if they chose to brave the strait. The warning comes amid mounting concerns that Iran might move to block the critical maritime chokepoint.
Japanese logistics company Nippon Yusen and trade conglomerate Mitsui have ordered their vessels to decrease transit time in the strait “whenever possible, depending on their schedules,” in a bid to limit risk exposure, Reuters reports, citing an unnamed Nippon Yusen spokesperson. Both firms said they will continue to provide their vessels with information through surveillance.
Meanwhile, shipping giants like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd will continue to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, but they said that they might reconsider their decision as they monitor the situation, Reuters and Al Arabiya reported on Sunday.
Evidence of reduced traffic in the maritime route is already emerging, with the number of empty tankers entering the Arabian Gulf decreased by 32% w-o-w and loaded tankers leaving the area falling by 27% compared to early May, Reuters reported citing Singapore-based broker Sentosa Shipbrokers’ data. “If we begin to see Iranian attacks on shipping, it will most likely further reduce the number of ships transiting through the strait,” head of security of the shipowners association Bimco Jakob Larsen told CNBC News.
ICYMI- At least 900 vessels in the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz reported disrupted signals last week, increasing the risk of collisions and disruptions at the straits of Hormuz and Bab El Mandab. Signs of “extreme jamming” were also detected from Iran’s Bandar Abbas Port.
#2- Egypt pushed back resuming natural gas supplies to industrial plants by another week, with flows now expected to start gradually before the end of June, a government official told AlArabiya Business. The delay comes amid halted imports from Israel, which now stand at 40-50 mcf/d — down from 90 mcf/d last week and far below the 650 mcf/d previously expected for this week.
Fertilizer and petrochemical plants are on standby to restart operations once gas begins flowing again, two industry sources told the regional news outlet, noting that most facilities have completed scheduled maintenance and are in close coordination with the Oil Ministry and Egas to resume operations. Supplies could reach some plants starting Friday, with full pre-shutdown volumes expected by mid-July.
What’s next? A new regasification unit — likely the Energos Power — will go online in Ain Sokhna within days and will operate alongside the existing Hoegh Gallant unit, the official said. Together, the two vessels are expected to supply 1.4-1.5 bcf/d to the domestic market — including 200 mcf/d earmarked for Jordan under existing infrastructure-sharing agreements.
MARKET WATCH-
#1- Oil prices dipped this morning amid hopes for eased tension in the region after US President Donald Trump announced an Iran-Israel ceasefire, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures fell USD 2.08 to USD 69.40 a barrel by 03.30 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures saw an uptick of USD 2.03 to trade at USD 66.48 a barrel. This came after the rates saw a sharp decline in an earlier session, before settling this morning at their lowest level in over two weeks.
#2- Baltic index dips once again: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — fell 0.9% to 1,674 points on Monday. The capesize was down 2.1% to 2,818 points, while the panamax index increased 0.9% to 1,362 points. The small supramax index inched up 6 points to settle at 979.
#3- Coal to benefit from LNG supply scare: Geopolitical threats to LNG supply via the Straitof Hormuz have surged LNG spot prices in Asia — the largest LNG consumer — distinguishing thermal coal as an attractively affordable alternative, Reuters reports. Rates for LNG heading to North Asia have risen from USD 12.60 per mn British thermal units (mmBtu) to reach their highest point in four months at USD 14.00 mmBtu, whereas Australia’s thermal coal prices — favored by Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan — maintained a 13% cheaper rate at USD 12.18 mmBtu despite surging to a four-month high as well, the newswire reports, citing data from globalCoal and LSEG.
Who are the world’s biggest coal suppliers and consumers? Australia, Indonesia, and Russia are historically the world’s top coal exporters, according to data ranging 1978-2020 by the International Energy Agency. In 2023, the Asia-Pacific region accounted for 84% of the total coal trade, whereas Atlantic coal trade declined due to Western bans on Russian coal, reduced European demand, and increased Asian (especially Chinese) import demand.
IN CONTEXT- While LNG and crude flows haven’t seen any disruptions yet from Hormuz, closing the strait would impact the Qatari and Emirati flows of the chilled fuel — which together account for about 20% of the global LNG market.
DATA POINTS-
Algeria is expected to see its non-oil exports surpass USD 7 bn in 2025, due to a rise in demand for the country’s products abroad, Algerian newspaper Echorouk reported on Sunday, citing President of the National Association of Algerian Exporters Tarek Boulmerka. This comes on the back of doubling demand for Algerian ceramics in Tunisia and Libya, and a rise in demand for tires throughout Africa, Europe, and the US, according to the news outlet. African countries had the most demand for Algerian household appliances, whereas MENA trade partners sought Algeria’s fruits, vegetables, and manufactured food products.
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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-
ASEAN Ports and Logistics will take place on Tuesday, 1 July till Thursday, 3 July in Jakarta, Indonesia. The conference will bring together industry leaders and keynote speakers for discussions in the transport and logistics sector — gathering some 400 delegates from governments, companies, and developers in the shipping, ports, cargo, trade, and rail industries.
Intermodal Africa will kick off on Tuesday, 22 July and run till Thursday, 24 July in Beira, Mozambique. The forum will host over 300 senior government officials, industry leaders, academics, senior executives, and harbor masters in the ports, shipping, and logistics sector. Attendees and speakers will be coming from countries across the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.




