Good morning, folks. It’s a very brisk read today, with debt and logistics zone updates from UAE and Kuwaiti players. But first, some possibly good news for global trade and businesses…

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY- US, China negotiators reach agreement: The US and China negotiators reached a preliminary agreement to get their Geneva trade war truce back on track, following 20 hours of tense negotiations over the last two days in London. Although few details of the agreement have emerged, it is understood that the two world’s two largest economies agreed to solve their differences over Chinese rare earth export restrictions and US tech export controls. The agreement now awaits the sign-off from Xi and Trump.

REMEMBER- The two nations pointed fingers at each other earlier this month for rollbacks on the Geneve trade truce that they agreed on in May, with the US claiming China has been restricting critical minerals and China crying foul over new US’ controls on microchips exports.

A return to the Geneva truce also means the world’s largest economies have until August to figure out a trade pact, while keeping in place the agreed reduced tariffs schemes that see the US impose a 30% duty — instead of 145% — on Chinese goods, and China keeping its tariffs on US-sourced products at 10%, instead of 125%.

This story grabbed a lot of ink in the int’l press: Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | Wall Street Journal | CNN | CNBC | BBC | The Guardian

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1-Jazeera Airways eyes ventures for global expansion: Kuwait’s Jazeera Airways is mulling plans to acquire narrow-body jets — filling the void left by the recent departure of 14 European carriers from Kuwait International Airport, CEO Barathan Pasupathi told The National. The carrier is also looking to partner with Kuwait Airways, which Pasupathi described as a “tremendous” avenue for expanding its point-to-point network.

All eyes on fleet: The Kuwaiti airline is considering the A321 LR, A321 XLR, and Embraer’s E2 jets for point-to-point routes with lower-density traffic. The carrier is in the midst of talks with lessors as part of efforts to push for European growth, having already launched a twice-weekly service to Budapest last week. The carrier’s lengthy order book will already see it receive 26 aircraft —18 A320neos and 8 A321neos — between 2026 and 2030.

That’s not all: Jazeera Airways is also set to expand Terminal 5 — its terminal in Kuwait International Airport — with plans to boost its capacity to 7.5 mn passengers, up from the current 5 mn passengers, in a bid to meet projected growth over the next two to three years.

#2- Iraqi Airways completed its first trial landing at Iraq’s Mosul International Airport, according to a statement released last week. The airport, which was set to reopen on 10 June, is pending final preparations to ensure operational readiness. Located in Nineveh Governorate near the Development Road Project, the airport will boast a 3k-meter runway and accommodate 35k sqm of air cargo with a corresponding station.

REFRESHER- Iraq started reconstructing the airport back in 2022 — previously slated for completion by 2024 — after the airport was damaged in 2017.

DISRUPTION WATCH-

Israel bombs Yemeni port, threatens blockade: Israeli navy missile ships launched two strikes targeting the docks of Yemen’s Hodeidah port, alleging it is being used by the Houthis to transfer weapons and attack Israeli territory, according to a statement. Israel threatened the Iran-backed group with a naval and air blockade if attacks continue — after it pushed for an evacuation of the Houthi-controlled ports of Ras Isa, Hodeidah, and Salif earlier this week, Reuters reports, citing Houthi-run Al Masirah TV.

Not a first: Israel launched airstrikes on Yemen in May in retaliation against a Houthi missile attack on Tel Aviv’s Ben-Gurion Airport. Israel struck Yemen’s main seaport in Hodeidah, followed by another airstrike on the country’s main international airport in Sana’a.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices went down this morning despite hopes of softened US-China trade tensions as the market mulls the impact of a possible deal, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures dipped by USD 0.19 to reach USD 66.68 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) decreased by USD 0.16 to USD 64.82 a barrel by 03.18 GMT.

Opec’s oil output rose by a modest 150k bpd in May to reach 26.75 mn bpd, but the increase was far below quota levels, according to a Reuters survey. Saudi Arabia led with a 130k bpd hike but remained 100k bbl/d below its target, while Iraq and the UAE underproduced to compensate for earlier overproduction. Although five members were expected to raise output by 310k bbl/d, required compensation cuts by Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE brought the net increase to only 180k bbl/d. The UAE’s shortfall reflected its relatively low cut obligations, though the International Energy Agency reported higher production than official figures, Reuters added.

Despite the upward revision in quotas, actual production increases have yet to materialize, Bloomberg reported citing a note by Morgan Stanley. The bank pointed to the roughly 1 mn bpd increase in quotas between March and June and said “an actual increase in production is hard to detect, noting that KSA in particular does not appear to have ramped up production significantly,” Bloomberg added, citing analyst Martijn Rats.

Morgan Stanley still expects core Opec+ supply to grow by around 420k bbl/d between June and September, with half the increase likely from Saudi Arabia. Non-Opec+ producers are also on track to add 1.1 mn bbl/d this year — outpacing demand growth estimated at 800k bbl/d and causing the bank to keep its surplus outlook. The result will be a softer oil market outlook after the summer period, Bloomberg added, citing the bank’s analysts.

#2- Baltic index snaps winning streak: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — fell 0.6% to 1,680 points on Tuesday. The capesize index was down up 1.8% to f 2,956 points, while the panamax index inched up 2.9% to 1,300 points. The supramax index eased seven points to settle at 919.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Saudi Ports Authority’s (Mawani) container volume rose 13% y-o-y in May 2025 to 720.7k TEUs, up from 639.7k in May 2024, with transshipments rising 12.9% y-o-y to 149.1k TEUs, it said in a statement last Saturday. Imports outpaced exports, growing 15.8% y-o-y to 292.2k TEUs, while the latter grew 9.4% y-o-y to 279.3k TEUs.

Total cargo mass rose 1.4% y-o-y to 21.3 mn tons, comprising 935.9k tons of general cargo, 5.1 mn tons of solid bulk, and 15.3 mn tons of liquid bulk. The ports also received some 1.6 mn heads of cattle, up 61.2% y-o-y.

Maritime traffic was up 9.4% y-o-y to 1.1k ships, with the number of passengers rising 68.2% y-o-y to 95.2k, while the number of vehicles rose 13.1% to 84.4k.

#2- Iraq exported 2.8 mn tons of petroleum products in 1Q 2025, with fuel oil soaking up most of the exports, Shafaq News reports, citing the country’s federal marketing company SOMO. Fuel oil exports fell by 39.8% q-o-q — based on our calculation — to 2.5 mn tons in 1Q 2025, while naphtha exports reached 242k tons and jet fuel recorded 13k tons of exports during the same time period.

#3- Global air cargo tonnage inched up by 4% m-o-m in May 2025 following a 7% drop in April, according to recent WorldACD Market data. The increase — which makes May a “highly volatile month for air cargo” — comes on the back of the US bringing down the ‘de minimis’ tariff on Chinese packages valued at up to USD 800, which ultimately led to a drop in late April that continued until the first half of May. The 90-day pause of the Sino-US trade war has slashed US tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US imports to 10%, causing the rebound in the second half of May.

On a yearly basis: Global air cargo tonnage also increased 4% y-o-y in May 2025, but traffic from the Middle East and South Asia (MESA) remained unchanged compared to the same month in 2024, according to the data.

ALSO- The average pricing rates in May dropped by 4% m-o-m and by 3% y-o-y in May 2025, based on a full market average of spot and contact rates. MESA experienced the biggest drop in rates by 14% y-o-y.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

France will host the International Paris Air Show from Monday, 16 June to Sunday, 22 June in Paris. The event will host 300k visitors to view some 2.5k exhibitors from 48 countries, 300 start-ups and 150 air carriers on display – all showcasing cutting-edge tech in the aviation field.

Turkey will host the Eurasia Rail from Wednesday, 18 June to Thursday, 19 June in Istanbul. The event will host 7.7k visitors interested in Turkey’s railway sector or are railway technology buyers, and will feature engineering, products and services from both private and public sectors.

Greece will host the East Med Maritime Conference on Thursday, 19 June in Athens. The event will showcase new developments and tech in the shipping, logistics and offshore field – hosting an array of key leaders, exports, port operators and shippers in the maritime industry.

The UAE will host Middle East Rail from Tuesday, 24 June to Thursday, 25 June in Dubai. The conference at Dubai World Trade Center will host over 250 speakers and a multi-brand exhibition for transport solutions.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

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