E-truck demand to rise: The global demand for electric trucking seems poised for significant growth as the demand for plug-in hybrid, battery, and fuel cell electric trucks is forecast to rise to 70% of global sales in 2030 — up from 13% in 2022, according to the Road Transport report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Global electric truck sales saw a 35% y-o-y increase in 2023, reaching around 54k units, according to a report by IEA.

The West is falling behind: A streak of US and EU-based hydrogen and electric trucking startups have permanently plugged out in the past six months, with modest demand, steep hydrogen and battery costs, and lackluster infrastructure as the likely culprits.

Meanwhile, China’s in the driver’s seat: China's zero-emissions truck market saw unprecedented growth in 2024, with nearly 80k units sold, Bloomberg reported earlier this year. The total — composed of heavy-duty battery-electric trucks and almost 4k hydrogen fuel cell units — more than doubled the deliveries from 2023 and represented over a 25-fold increase compared to output in 2021.

Why is this the case? China's unrivaled growth in all types of electric commercial vehicles is fueled by government policy supporting its supply chains, resulting in EV batteries that cost just USD 90 per kWh, dramatically cheaper than the average of USD 190 per kWh incurred elsewhere in the world, a BloombergNEF survey found. This cost advantage is a key factor in China's rapid expansion in this sector, with lower-cost batteries raising the sector’s ability to compete economically with diesel-run trucks. The rising number of trucks using swappable batteries is also helping to maintain lower operating costs and slash the time needed for re-charging.

BYD plays a central role: China’s leading EV maker BYD is building an independent position by securing a long-term supply of lithium—a crucial battery material—through ownership stakes in mines across six countries on three continents, the Financial Times reported last year. The company owns a subsidiary responsible for establishing EV production facilities, designing its EV software, as well as producing its own computer chips — allowing for tailored innovation and freedom from external chip manufacturers.

UAE AND KSA ARE LEADING THE REGION-

UAE and KSA ports emerge as e-trucking hotspot: Saudi Arabia’s King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam obtained 80 electric trucks from Chinese heavy equipment maker Sany late last year as part of some SAR 7 bn investment made by the Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Saudi Global Ports (SGP). DP World also inked an agreement to deploy 100 electric trucks at Jebel Ali Port, with deployment expected at the time to begin by late 2024, aiming to support 1.6k container movements per day.

UAE’s been ramping up production ventures…: Singapore-based EV maker SingAuto received preliminary approval last year to establish an EV manufacturing hub in Abu Dhabi to produce electric refrigeration trucks in a project backed by an investment of USD 45 mn from an undisclosed UAE investor. Another EV assembly plant with 5k production capacity — including 3k electric trucks — was announced in 2022 in a joint venture between US’ AdmiralMobility, UAE-based car rental company Avis, and China’s Geely Fairzon New Energy Commercial Vehicle Group.

… and long-haul EV infrastructure: The UAE Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure inked an MoU in 2023 with Swedish electric and self-driving trucking startup Einride to deploy a 550 km freight mobility grid—dubbed Falcon Rise. The agreement was said to be aiming for a fast-tracked deployment of 2k EVs, 200 self-driving vehicles, and eight charging stations across the grid connecting Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Sharjah—the first project of its kind in the region, Einride said at the time. The company signed an agreement with Abu Dhabi’s Integrated Transport Center (ITC) last year to establish a network deploying 1k all-electric heavy-duty trucks and 100 self-driving vehicles.

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