Shipping giants could face a tough year in 2025 as trade warring intensifies

The shipping industry’s 2024 gains could be reversed as a result of intensifying trade wars and the potential rebound of Red Sea shipping, as the industry braces for an expected decrease in shipping volumes and rates, as a result, Bloomberg reports, citing a handful of industry experts and analysts. Last week, global shipping liner rates dipped 5.9% after falling below USD 3k per 40-ft container for the first time since May.

The US tariffs on Chinese goods and China-built vessels are expected to have a sizeable impact, with container shipping volumes expected to drop by 1.5-2% in 2025, Kepler Cheureux analyst Axel Styrman told the news outlet. The new levies could also result in increased unit costs for transpacific routes, Citi Bank analysts said. Shanghai-based Cosco Shipping is especially vulnerable due to its mix of Chinese-built vessels, with its profits forecasted to slip by over 50% this year after more than doubling last year – while Japanese and Taiwanese liners could benefit.

An increase in Red Sea shipping could cause container shipping demand to drop by around 6%, according to Styrman’s calculations. For players like the Shipping giant Maersk, a return to the Red Sea could see it barely break even in 2025 instead of its projected USD 3 bn in net income.

Some players may be underestimating the tariff impact: “It seems that [shipping firms] don’t believe that tariffs will hurt that market severely,” Styrman added. Hapag-Lloyd, for example, is predicting changes in the global trade flows rather than a drop in trade volume, Bloomberg reported. However, if the impact of both tariffs and the red sea route rebounds in 2025, coupled with expanding fleets, spot rates could see up to 40% y-o-y drop, Styrman warned.