Good morning, nice people. We have a packed issue today that is heavy on M&A updates from across the region. But first, more on Trump’s never-ending trade warring…
THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY- Trump picks another trade fight: US President Donald Trump has ordered a new trade investigation into lumber products that could lead to additional tariffs on major exporters. The investigation — which will also look into lumber’s derivatives like furniture and kitchen cabinets — will take 270 days to finish. No timeline for the investigation’s start and end has been disclosed.
By the numbers: In 2022, Canada, China, Brazil, Mexico, and Germany were the US’ toplumber exporters. The US also exported nearly USD 9.83 bn in wood products back in 2023, while it imported nearly USD 24.8 bn in wood products — making it the largest importer of wood products in the world, according to OEC data.
Canada and Mexico could be hard hit: Any tariffs resulting from the investigation would be added to the existing 14.5% combined anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on Canadian softwood lumber. The tariffs could also stack on top of the existing 25% tariffs on all Canadian and Mexican goods that are scheduled to take effect this week.
ICYMI- The Trump administration launched a probe last week that could result in a fresh new round of tariffs on copper imports in a bid to curb alleged moves by China to dominate the global copper market.
The story made headlines in the international press: Reuters | The New York Times | Bloomberg | CNN | Axios | CBS | The Financial Times | Associated Press |
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- Egypt-based Intro Group plans to launch the first phase of its Kemet Data Center project in the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) next year, Intro Group’s managing partner Ayman Mamdouh Abbas told Asharq Business. The first phase will see USD 150 mn in investments.
What we already know: The project will include four phases, each with a capacity of 20 MW and will have a final price tag of USD 1 bn, the company’s representatives said in November. The first phase will see Intro develop a capacity for 2.5k data transport cabinets and an electrical capacity of 20 MW. The project is expected to be fully completed by the end of 2030.
IN OTHER EGYPT NEWS- Eight Turkish apparel and textile manufacturers are in talks to enter the Egyptian market this year, Head of Egypt’s Apparel Export Council Marie Bishara told Al Borsa on Sunday. Investors are assessing industrial zones and eyeing temporary production partnerships with local manufacturers until their facilities are operational.
Why it matters: The move could boost Egypt’s garment exports by 25% to USD 4.1 bn by 2026, up from USD 3.3 bn this year, Bishara said.
ALSO- Egypt makes headway on Ain Sokhna Port: Infrastructure work at Hutchison Port’s container terminal project in Egypt’s Ain Sokhna Port is complete, while superstructure work is 20% finished, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said in a statement during a tour of the site on Thursday. Overall, the project is 96% complete.
Part of a bigger picture: The port is part of an integrated logistics project to link the Red Sea and Mediterranean coasts dubbed the Sokhna-Alexandria Corridor. The corridor — part of Egypt’s Transport Ministry logistic corridors’ project — will be connected to the rail network through the Robeiky-10th of Ramadan-Belbeis railway line, and will pass through the 10th of Ramadan industrial zone, its logistics zone and dry port, then the 6th of October Industrial Zone, its dry port, and logistic zone, before reaching Alexandria Port.
REMEMBER- Egypt signed two agreements worth USD 1.6 bn with two consortiums — both including the Hong Kong-based Hutcherson Ports — to develop new container terminals at the Ain Sokhna and Dekheila ports back in 2023. The Sokhna project — co-developed with Cosco and CMA CGM through a 30-year concession — will double the port’s annual capacity to 3.5 mn TEUs.
#2- Turkey is calling for the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline to operate at “maximum level” capacity upon resumption, Reuters reports. “We want some of the oil passing through this line to go to the refinery in Kirikkale, and also via ships through Ceyhan, to refineries in Turkey or to different refineries in the world,” Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar was quoted as saying.
REMEMBER- Baghdad recently earmarked 185k barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil for export through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline — out of a total capacity of 300k bpd — once it becomes operational. The pipeline halted operations in February 2023 for earthquake repairs, after which Turkey indefinitely paused oil flow due to an arbitration court ordering it to pay USD 1.5 bn as compensation to Iraq.
#3- Egypt and Morocco have agreed to address trade imbalance and promote bilateral trade after the kingdom halted Egyptians imports over reported trade issues, according to statements here and here. Egypt’s Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib’s visit to Morocco came after reports that Morocco had put a stop to Egyptian imports citing trade imbalance in Egypt’s favor — ended with the two sides agreeing to establish a “direct line of communication” to address any trade issues that arise, fast-track Moroccan exports into Egypt, and increase efforts to promote Egyptian imports of Moroccan-made goods — especially for automobiles.
What trade imbalance? Egyptian exports to Morocco came in at USD 898 mn for the first 11 months of 2024, while Egypt-bound Moroccan goods amounted to only USD 42.1 mn, according to Capmas data seen by EnterpriseAM.
The two nations are also hoping to get each other’s private sectors on board, with a business-to-business forum for specific sectors set to take place in Egypt in April. Preparations are also underway to activate the Business Council between the two and for the Egypt-Morocco Joint Trade Committee to meet.
Remember: Egypt sent a high-level delegation to Rabat last week to push for the removal of recent restrictions that have left Egyptian exports piling in Morocco’s ports for two weeks, a government source previously told EnterpriseAM. Nearly 150 containers loaded with Egyptian ceramics, food products, and insulation materials were said to be impacted.
MARKET WATCH-
#1- Oil prices inched up in early morning trading driven by positive manufacturing figures from China, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures increased by USD 0.36 to USD 73.17 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose by USD 0.34 to USD 70.10 a barrel by 04.41 GMT.
IN OTHER RELEVANT NEWS- Opec+ is reportedly on the fence about whether to hike oil outputs in April as planned, or to keep them at their current level, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing eight anonymous Opec+ sources. This comes as the oil market faces uncertainty caused by the new US sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. The US has been raising its pressure on Opec+ to boost production and lower prices to USD 60-70 per barrel.
Another decision to postpone the 120k barrel per day (bpd) production increase would mark the fourth time that the group has decided to put off rolling back production caps, which first came into effect in 2022, the business news information service said.
The group’s final decision is expected to be confirmed by the end of the first week of March, with sources telling Reuters that members have so far not reached a consensus.
REMEMBER-Opec+ began withholding 5.85 mn bpd, or 5.7% of global supply, via a series of cuts beginning in 2022 with the aim of supporting markets. The latest extension of output cuts through 1Q 2025 delayed production increases until April.
ALSO- Saudi’s Aramco expected to lower April Arab Light Crude price for Asia: Aramco may cut the April official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light crude to Asia by c. USD 0.20 to USD 0.65 per barrel, Reuters reported on Friday, after surveying four Asian refining sources. The pricing would place it at a premium of USD 3.25-3.70 per barrel over Oman/Dubai, down from USD 3.90 in March, which was the highest pricing in over a year. A separate Bloomberg survey suggests an average drop of USD 0.10 per barrel, though estimates range from a modest USD 0.15 decline to as much as USD 1 per barrel, Asharq Business reported.
The March OSPs for other Saudi crude grades are also expected to decline, with Arab Extra Light and Arab Medium projected to have a drop of at least USD 0.65 per barrel, while Arab Heavy is expected to fall between USD 0.10-0.65 per barrel, Reuters said.
#2- Baltic index on an upswing: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — rose 70 points to 1,299 on Friday. The capesize surged by 245 points to 1,818, while the panamax index fell 29 points to 1,063. The smaller supramax index shed 8 points to 895.
#3- The Drewry World Container Index decreased 6% to USD 2,629 per 40-ft container on Thursday, according to the latest index readings. Spot rates for 40-ft containers are now 75% below the previous pandemic peak but remain 85% above the pre-pandemic rate of USD 1.4k. The average composite index YTD is USD 3,372 per 40ft container, which is USD 489 higher than the 10-year average rate of USD 2,882.
DATA POINTS-
#1- Qatar’s private sector saw a 68.5% y-o-y boost in exports to QAR 4.48 bn (c. USD 1.23 bn) in 4Q 2024, buoyed by an increase in the value of exported commodities, according to a statement published last week. However, FY 2024’s total exports dipped 41% y-o-y to QAR 12.2 bn. 104 countries received exports from Qatar’s private sector during the year.
#2- GCC leads Dubai Chamber members’ record AED 309.6 bn exports in 2024:
GCC markets accounted for 52% (AED 161 bn) of Dubai Chamber of Commerce members’ exports and re-exports in 2024, according to a statement published on Thursday. Total exports and re-exports surged 9.2% y-o-y to AED 309.6 bn — crossing for the first time the AED 300 bn mark since the chamber’s inception.
Non-GCC Middle Eastern countries came in second with 24.8% (AED 76.8 bn) in exports, while Africa and Asia-Pacific contributed 10% (AED 30.9 bn) and 9.6% (AED 29.7 bn).
#3-The UAE’s DP World processed 1.3 mn vehicles across its Dubai terminals in 2024, marking a 53.6% y-o-y increase and the firm’s highest number yet, according to a press release. Jebel Ali Port alone handled some 960k vehicles, with the remaining vehicles handled in Mina Al Hamriya and Mina Rashid. China accounted for 25% of all vehicles passing through DP World’s terminals, followed by Japan, Korea, and India.
#4- The on-demand delivery market in Saudi Arabia is expected to grow to SAR 50 bn by 2026, after hitting SAR 13 bn in value in 2023, Mr. Mandoob CEO Obaid Al Enezi told Asharq Business. The average order value also rose to SAR 77 in 1H 2024 from SAR 66 in 2023.
Driving the expansion: The sector’s growth is fueled by increased smartphone use, as well as the user base expanding to include children aged 10 to 12 as “active participants,” rising women’s workforce participation, and increased competition from new entrants like China’s Kita, according to Al Enezi.
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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-
The UAE will host the Gulf Ship Finance Forum on Thursday, 10 April in Dubai. The forum will host shipping and finance executives from around the region and the world to host presentations, interviews and panel discussions on ownership, management, chartering, legal and trading in shipping.
The UAE will host the CargoIS Forum on Monday, 14 April in Dubai. The event will discuss industry insights and strategies from leading logistics players, including Emirates SkyCargo and Lufthansa Cargo.
The UAE will host the IATA World Cargo Symposium from Tuesday, 15 April to Thursday, 17 April in Dubai. The event will host sessions, specialized streams, workshops and summits related to technology, security, customs, cargo operations and sustainability for over 1.4k industry leaders.
Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.




