Good morning, nice people. The news cycle is holding steady as we inch closer to the weekend. This morning there are a bunch of M&A and investment updates to delve into, alongside the recent Saudi launch of a major MRO industrial hub.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Abu Dhabi’s flagship carrier Etihad Airways may pull the trigger on one of the region’s most anticipated IPOs this week, Reuters reports, citing sources it says are familiar with the matter. The IPO should see Etihad’s sole owner — Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ — rake in some USD 1 bn in proceeds from the sale of a 20% stake by selling new shares on the ADX. The move would give the airline an implied market cap of USD 5 bn at listing.

Etihad reportedly kicked off a roadshow earlier this month, to sound out investors for its proposed IPO. While the offering was initially planned for last year, the airline’s FY 2024 results — which were published late last week — along with geopolitical uncertainties were said to have weighed on the timing. The ADQ-backed carrier’s net income tripled last year to AED 1.7 bn, while revenues were up 25% to AED 25.3 bn.

ADVISORS- ADQ reportedly tapped Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Bank of America, BNP Paribas, and Morgan Stanley as joint bookrunners for the IPO, with HSBC Holdings, First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) and Citigroup said to be acting as financial advisors.

IN OTHER UAE NEWS- Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc Logistics and Services secures a spot in the FTSE big leagues: Energy giant Adnoc Logistics and Services was upgraded to the large-cap index of FTSE Russell in its semi-annual review (pdf), reflecting its growing market dominance. Previously classified as a mid-cap stock, the reclassification underscores its expanding scale and liquidity, making it even more attractive to institutional investors tracking the global index. GulfNav Holding was also added to the Small Cap Index, as well as the All Cap.

#2- The Middle East aviation industry is projected to order over 3,740 new aircraft over the next 20 years, including 42% wide-bodied jets — double the estimated global average, Airbus President Wouter Van Wersch told Al Eqtisadiah on the sidelines of the Aerospace Connect Forum (watch, runtime 00:58). The region’s aviation market, with a particular emphasis on Saudi Arabia, is “undergoing tremendous change,” Wersch said.

#3- Iraq allays fears of oil overproduction: The Iraqi government is drafting a revised oil production plan to correct its previous surpluses in an apparent bid to comply with OPEC+ production cuts, Reuters reports, citing a statement by the country’s Oil Ministry.

MEANWHILE- Iraq could resume its Kurdish oil exports in two days pending Turkish approval, Reuters reports, citing comments made by Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdel Ghani. The continuation of Kurdish exports remains in line with OPEC+ policy, Abdel Ghani stated.

REMEMBER- Baghdad has recently earmarked 185k barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil for exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline once it becomes operational.

#4- US targets Iranian shadow fleet with new round of sanctions: The US has rolled out another round of sanctions targeting the Iranian oil trade, according to a US Treasury Department statement. The decision targets over 30 entities involved in selling and transporting Iranian crude, including oil brokers from the UAE and Hong Kong, tank operators and managers in India and China, the head of Iran’s National Iranian Oil Company, and the Iranian Oil Terminals Company.

REMEMBER- The US rolled out sanctions earlier this month targeting China-linked Iranian oil operations as part of its “maximum pressure” push on the country to curtail its alleged pursuit of a nuclear weapon, including by cutting its oil exports to “zero.”

Is it really working? Iranian oil exports to China surged to 1.7 mn barrels per day (bpd) in February, up 86% from the previous month despite the tightening sanctions on Tehran. The increase comes on the heels of a rise in ship-to-ship transfers and the development of alternative crude receiving terminals, traders told the news outlet.

#5- Turkey is looking to extend its five-year swap agreement for natural gas with Turkmenistan this year, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar told Hurriyet. The initial agreement — inked earlier this month between Turkey's Botas and Turkmenistan's Turkmengaz — is slated to begin on 1 March with the annual supply of 1.3 bn cubic meters of gas from Turkmenistan piped via Iran.

Turkey is shoring up its gas supply: Turkey’s Botas Petroleum Pipeline Corporation (Botas) and TotalEnergies have inked a 10-year LNG supply agreement to pump 1.1 mn tons of LNG per year into the country starting in 2027. The country is also planning to double its daily gas production by 3Q of 2026, Bayraktar said.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Crude prices went up this morning after reports of declining US stockpiles, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures went up this morning by USD 0.20 to USD 73.22 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose by USD 0.18 to USD 69.11 a barrel by 04.30 GMT.

#2- Baltic index on a winning streak: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — was up 37 points to 1,039 on Tuesday. The capesize increased 120 points to reach a 5-week-high of 1,159, while the panamax index shed 21 points to 1,156. The smaller supramax index grew 9 points to 904.

DATA POINT-

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports were up 8.2% y-o-y in 4Q 2024, according to the latest data from the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat) (pdf). Total non-oil exports — including re-exports — were up 17.3% y-o-y, pushed by an 47.3% increase in the value of re-exports over the same period. Meanwhile, imports increased 15.5% y-o-y in 4Q, and the surplus of the merchandise trade balance declined 52.4% y-o-y.

Oil exports continue to decline: Oil’s share of total exports dropped by 5.9 percentage points y-o-y to 70.5% in 4Q 2024. Total oil exports fell 13.3% y-o-y during the same period, leading to a 6.1% drop in merchandise exports.

PSA-

Hapag-Lloyd rolls out new GRI: Shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd will implement a general rate increase (GRI) to USD 500 per container for shipments from the Middle East and Indian Subcontinent to the US East Coast, effective 1 April 2025, according to a statement. The rate increase will apply to all cargo transported in 20’ and 40’ dry containers, reefers, and special containers.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host the Gulf Ship Finance Forum on Thursday, 10 April in Dubai. The forum will host shipping and finance executives from around the region and the world to host presentations, interviews and panel discussions on ownership, management, chartering, legal and trading in shipping.

The UAE will host the CargoIS Forum on Monday, 14 April in Dubai. The event will discuss industry insights and strategies from leading logistics players, including Emirates SkyCargo and Lufthansa Cargo.

The UAE will host the IATA World Cargo Symposium from Tuesday, 15 April to Thursday, 17 April in Dubai. The event will host sessions, specialized streams, workshops and summits related to technology, security, customs, cargo operations and sustainability for over 1.4k industry leaders.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

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