Lebanon’s non-energy private sector had its strongest outing since May 2013 in January, as inflows of new orders were boosted by the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, as well as the election of a new president, according to Blominvest Bank’s Lebanon PMI (pdf). The nation’s headline figure came in at 50.6, up from 48.8 in December, marking Lebanon’s first month in expansion territory since July 2023.

REMEMBER- The all-important 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth. Anything above 50 denotes expansion, while anything below indicates contraction.

Outstanding business levels rose for the first time since September 2023, as “greater volumes of new work led to an accumulation of backlogged orders” across Lebanon’s private sector last month. New orders and output both recorded their strongest rates of growth since May 2013.

New export orders remained mostly unchanged since December, indicating that growth in sales was largely domestic-driven in January. Purchasing volumes also remained steady during the month, but faster delivery times helped facilitate the bolstering of inventories, leading to stocks of inputs and raw materials increasing at their quickest pace in nine months.

Price pressures also fell during the month, with Lebanon’s purchasing price inflation easing to an eight-month low, while staff costs remained unchanged. Employment levels also remained steady across private sector firms in the country in January.

Businesses are feeling confident: Optimism across private sector businesses hit a fresh survey high of 75.1 in January, with many citing the election of Lebanese President Joseph Aoun as “a reason to be positive towards activity prospects,” coupled with the ceasefire agreement in Gaza and “the selection of a respectable Prime Minister, which could usher in a dynamic and reforming new government,” Blominvest Bank General Manager Fadi Osseiran said.

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