Good morning, friends. It is a fairly light read as we head towards the end of the week, with news on data center expansion moves by Qatar’s Meeza and Syria finally getting essential exports after over a decade of civil war. But first, we have more on Trump’s trade mania — which is just starting…

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY- Trump is considering slapping a 10% tariff on Chinese imports by 1 February: The US new administration is looking into imposing a 10% duty on China as early as 1 February. The tariff — much lower than the 60% he floated on the campaign trail — would be imposed due to China allegedly exporting fentanyl — a synthetic illicit drug that has caused scores of overdose-related deaths in the US — to Canada and Mexico before making it into the US. Trump also vowed on Tuesday to impose tariffs on the EU to address the skewed trade balance with the US but did not give a possible timeline.

REMEMBER- Trump’s first-day trade threats skipped China and focused instead on Canada and Mexico, prompting speculations on whether his administration might adopt a more prudent approach towards the manufacturing giant.

The story grabbed ink in the international press: Reuters | Bloomberg | CNBC | The New York Times | BBC | CNN | Financial Times

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- The UAE’s Adnoc L&S has transferred its tankers to Navig8 after acquiring 80% of the firm for USD 1.04 bn, and is planning staff cuts in the company, Reuters reports, citing a statement by the company. Adnoc also began telling its customers that Navig8 will start handling its chartering operations, Reuters reported, citing two unnamed sources.

ICYMI- Adnoc L&S finalized the acquisition earlier this month, with a contractual agreement to acquire the remaining 20% mid-2027 for between USD 335 mn and USD 450 mn. The acquisition is expected to boost Adnoc L&S’ earnings by 20% in the first full financial year.

UAE criticizes EU rules on imports from countries without trade unions: Emirati Economy Minister Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri criticized the EU for its directive that penalizes imports from countries without trade unions, Bloomberg reported, the minister’s remarks during the World Economic Forum in Davos. The directive could create challenges for oil and natural gas industries, as the UAE looks to expand its liquefied natural gas exports to Europe, he said. “You can’t dictate what other countries do with their labor systems. What works in the UAE works,” he stated.

#2- Indian refiners request freight prices from Adnoc on delivered-at-port basis: Indian state refiners have requested that the UAE’s Adnoc provide crude pricing on a delivered-at-port (DAP) basis as it aims to mitigate the rising costs caused by US sanctions on Russian oil and soaring freight rates, Reuters reported, citing three refining sources.

The context: Indian refiners — who rely on imports for more than 80% of their oil — have been significantly impacted by the recent surge in global oil prices and shipping costs following Washington’s imposition of broad new sanctions on Russian insurers, tankers, and oil producers. As a result, India has reportedly turned to Middle Eastern suppliers as it looks to find alternatives to Russian oil, which made up over a third of India’s imports last year.

The catch: Most Middle Eastern crude producers sell oil on a free-on-board basis through long-term contracts with Asian buyers, unlike Russian traders who supply India on a DAP basis, which covers insurance, shipping, and other services. Adnoc also has rarely offered term supplies to Asian buyers on a DAP basis, Reuters quoted sources as saying.

#3- MSC still avoiding Red Sea despite Gaza ceasefire: Shipping giant Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) will continue to avoid the Red Sea and reroute its vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, Ashraq Business reports. Despite the Houthis announcing they would stop attacking non-Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea, MSC says the situation still remains unclear, a sentiment shared by other firms like Maersk and Hapag Lloyd and maritime security experts.

IN OTHER CEASEFIRE RELATED NEWS- Turkey says it would resume trade with Israel if Gaza ceasefire holds: Turkey could bring back trade with Israel if the Hamas-Israel ceasefire continues, Reuters reports, citing head of the Turkish Foreign Economic Relations Board Nail Olpak. Turkey suspended trade with Israel last year over its war on Gaza.

#4- Iraq’s General Company for Ports has announced that the largest section of a 51 km road that is part of the Development Road project will be complete by February, INA reported on Saturday, citing Director General of the company Farhan Al-Fartousi. Work on other road sections — which connects Grand Faw Port to an under-construction submerged tunnel — is “proceeding at a good pace,” Al-Fartousi said.

ICYMI: Iraq said in February 2024 that it had completed 60% of the submerged tunnel, which is part of its project to connect Grand Faw Port and Umm Qasr Port to the Turkish border. Iraq plans to receive bids in 2025 for its Development Road project, which will include constructing a 1.2 km rail line and a parallel road.

#5- The Suez Canal expansion — extending the canal’s two-way section by 10 km to 82 km — is set to be operational in 1Q 2025, according to a statement. The Suez Canal successfully tested the passage of two ships through the new 10 km stretch earlier this month. The extension is set to enhance navigational safety and raise the canal’s capacity by an additional six to eight vessels a day.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil stays steady on Trump’s second day: Oil prices remained largely stable in early morning trading on the back of US President Trump’s announcement of plans to boost oil and gas production in the US, including reversing a Biden-era ban on LNG export licensing, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures increased by USD 0.09 to USD 79.38 a barrel by GMT 04.20, while the more active US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) March rose by USD 0.01 to USD 75.84 a barrel.

#2- Baltic index takes another dip: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — slumped by another 3% to 928 points on Tuesday. The capesize index dropped 3.2% points to 1,284, while the panamax index fell 19 points to 874. The smaller supramax index dropped by 24 points to 703.

#3- Oil supertanker rates double on China routes since Russia sanctions: The cost of chartering supertankers on key routes to China has doubled since the US sanctions spree on Russia’s oil operation earlier this month, Bloomberg reports, citing Baltic Exchange data. Daily rates for VLCCs operating on the Middle East to China route increased 112% to USD 57.6k last week as both China and India moved to shore up supplies from our region, while VLCCs on the US Gulf to China route rose 102%. VLCCS operating the West Africa to China route also jumped 90%.

No hopes for a cooldown: “Rates could hold at these levels if Trump dials up the pressure on Iranian oil shipments, which is more likely than not,” Oil Brokerage analyst Junjie Ting told Bloomberg.

#4- Europe’s natural gas benchmark future prices fluctuated on Tuesday before settling at 4.5% — its highest since 2 January — as traders weigh the possibility of another year of tight supplies amid trade-war concerns caused by tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, Bloomberg reports. Europe’s LNG demand is slated to surge by over 15% in 2025 after falling last year, which may result in prices remaining high for longer unless demand elsewhere dips.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Jordan’s Zarqa Freezone saw a 7% y-o-y increase in vehicle clearance in 2024, reaching 78k vehicles, The Jordan Times reported on Monday, citing the automobile sector’s representative at the Jordan Freezone Investor Commission Jihad Abu Nasser. Vehicles’ re-exports from the Freezone also rose by 11% y-o-y in 2024, reaching 133k vehicles.

Driven by EVs: The clearance of electric vehicles saw a 33% increase y-o-y, reaching 51k EVs, which comfortably offset the decrease in clearance rates of gasoline-powered vehicles — down by 32% to 7.7k vehicles — and in hybrid and diesel vehicles, whose clearance rates fell by 24% to 12k and 5% to 7.7k, respectively.

#2- Dubai Chamber of Commerce boosts its export trade: Members of Dubai’s Chamber of Commerce saw their exports and re-exports increase by 9.2% y-o-y to AED 310 bn in 2024, according to a statement. Over 70k new firms joined the chamber last year, increasing its membership by 18% y-o-y to over 258k.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Belgium will host the World Cargo Summit from Monday, 27 January to Wednesday, 29 January, in Ostend. The event will focus on air cargo economics, strategy, and market trends with a specific focus on how the industry will tackle disruptions and how firms can adapt their business models.

The UAE will host the ShipTek International Conference from Wednesday, 29 January to Thursday 30 January in Dubai. The two-day conference will gather industry experts, including managing director at Hapag-Lloyd Carolin Stumm, CEO Adani Ports Nicolai Friis, VP International Maritime Industries Justin Taylor, CEO Tristra Tim Coffin, and others to discuss new tech and developments in the maritime industry.

The UAE will host the Middle East Bunkering Convention from Monday, 3 February to Wednesday, 5 February in Dubai. The event will focus on the marine fuels sector to address the future of the industry in light of geopolitical issues, environmental regulation, and the future of artificial intelligence and digitalization.

Saudi Arabia will host the Airport Expansion Conference from Tuesday, 4 February to Wednesday, 5 February in Riyadh. The two-day conference will feature over 30 speakers to discuss challenges faced by Saudi Airports and highlight Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 with a clear focus on expansion, tech, and strategic partnerships.

The UAE will host the Middle East Breakbulk Conference from Monday, 10 February to Tuesday, 11 February in Dubai. The event gathers giant manufacturers, EPCs, and service providers to discuss the latest solutions in breakbulk and heavy-lift logistics across the Middle East and Africa. The two-day event features an artificial intelligence (AI) seminar, a heavy lift workshop, a chartering workshop, and a women in breakbulk panel.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

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