Good morning, folks. It is a quick read today, with some M&A news emerging from Egypt and an update on the GCC rail project, but first, an update on the impending threat of supersized tariffs from Trump land…

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY- No first-day tariffs from Trump: President Donald Trump refrained from imposing new tariffs on his first day in office but has instructed federal agencies to complete an assessment of US trade relations with China, Canada, and Mexico by 1 April, according to a White House memo. General tariffs are also off the table for now, with Trump declaring that the US is “not ready for that yet.”

China sparred for now, but Canada and Mexico could be hit soon: Trump floated 1 February as a possible date to impose his 25% tariff on goods from the two neighboring countries, casting the measure as a national security issue due to the alleged inflow of irregular migrants and fentanyl.

A new strategy towards China? The lack of first-day tariff threats toward China has got some market players and analysts to mull whether the new administration could adopt a more prudent approach toward China this year. “One positive surprise we may see this year is actually some sort of resolution between [the] US and China from an economic point of view,” said the Asia Portfolio Manager at Man Group Andrew Swan.

REMEMBER- Canada’s threatening to fight back: Canada could impose retaliatory tariffs on a list of up to CAD 150 bn (c. USD 105 bn) worth of US-manufactured goods if Trump proceeds with his pledged 25% levy on Canadian goods.

The story grabbed ink in the international press: The Wall Street Journal | Reuters | AP News | Financial Times | Bloomberg | CNBC | CBC | The New York Times

^^ We have a more in-depth look at how US trade policies will affect global trade in the news well, below.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- New alliances by shipping companies — most notably the Gemini Cooperation between Hapag Lloyd and Maersk — could boost trade at Egyptian ports by 25%, Green Port Navigation Company’s Director of Navigation Mahmoud Sami Ziyada told Al Mal. Shipping movement in the Suez Canal could also see a boost, an unnamed source from French shipping line CMA CGM told the news outlet.

Damietta + Port Said ports could see a boost: The Gemini Cooperation — set to launch in February — is expected to prioritize Egypt’s Damietta Container Terminal and the container terminal at East Port Said Port, Ziyada added.

What does Egypt need to do? Egypt needs to formulate national strategies to fully capitalize on these new alliances and adapt to the swift changes in the maritime transport industry, the source said. This will necessitate improving the operational efficiency of port handling equipment, advancing technology and logistics services, and ensuring readiness to accommodate large vessels that will be part of the new alliance plans.

What are the new shipping alliances, Enterprise? There are significant shifts on the horizon for the maritime industry, with the anticipated disbandment of the 2M alliance between MSC and Maersk next February. The disbandment marks the end of a 10-year alliance, but the shifts also hold promise for a number of new strategic partnerships bound to influence international trade and the maritime industry. The sector is also anticipating the commencement of both the Gemini Cooperation and the Premier Alliance on 1 February. The restructuring will impact trade lanes, adjust capacity, and redefine how shipping giants partner up to optimize operations and reduce costs.

ON A RELATED NOTE- Yemen’s Houthis say they will limit their Red Sea attacks only to Israel-linked commercial vessels, and will cease all attacks once the terms of the Gaza ceasefire are fulfilled, AP reports, citing a statement from the Yemen-based Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center, which liaises between the Houthis and commercial shipping operators.

But shipping firms are wary: “The ceasefire is considered fragile” and “minor deviations” could lead the Houthis to direct their attacks “against a broader range” of ships again, head of maritime security at Bimco Jakob P Larsen told The Washington Post. Shipping giants Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk said last week that they are not likely to immediately return to the Red Sea following the ceasefire announcement between Hamas and Israel.

#2- Russia looking to boost gas exports to Iran to 55 bcm: Russia could provide Iran with up to 55 bn cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually as Moscow seeks to diversify its gas exports following a significant decline in shipments to Europe, Reuters reports, citing comment by Russian President Vladimir Putin at a joint press conference with Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian during his visit to Moscow. The exports would start below 2 bcm and eventually reach 55 bcm, Putin said.

The details: The National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) inked an MoU in June last year with Russian energy giant Gazprom to import Russian gas, Reuters reports. The eventual target volume of 55 bcm per year is about the same size as the damaged Nord Stream 1 pipeline that was used to transfer Russian gas to Germany.

ICYMI- The two countries also inked a 20-year strategic partnership during the same visit to boost bilateral trade and enhance cooperation in the energy sector, tech, and transport. The pair also inked a 30-year EUR 11 bn gas import agreement in July of last year, involving plans for Russia to supply Iran with 300 bcm of gas per day through the Caspian Sea.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil stays steady: Oil prices remained largely stable in early morning trading on the back of US President Trump’s announcement to boost oil and gas production in the US and to delay the anticipated tariff plans temporarily, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures were down USD 0.01 to USD 80.14 a barrel by GMT 04.05, while the more active US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) March contract dropped USD 0.6 to USD 76.69 a barrel.

#2- Baltic index takes a dip: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — decreased by 3% to 957 points on Monday. The capesize index dropped 4.7% points to 1,327, while the panamax index fell 4 points to 893. The smaller supramax index dropped by 20 points to 727.

#3- LNG traders redirect six US shipments from Asia to Europe: Traders have redirected at least six US cargoes of LNG from Asia to Europe earlier this month due to higher European prices and weak Asian demand, Reuters reports. The vessels — loaded in the US — were destined for China, South Korea, Thailand, and Singapore, but were diverted in the Atlantic to Europe between 8-14 January 2025, Reuter writes, citing analytics firm Kpler’s data.

Asian spot LNG has been decreasing for two weeks, with rates at around USD 14 per mn British thermal units (mmBtu), which is considered too high for some buyers. “The diversions are happening because Asian prices aren't keeping enough of a premium to European prices to attract cargoes,” said Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at Argus.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Belgium will host the World Cargo Summit from Monday, 27 January to Wednesday, 29 January, in Ostend. The event will focus on air cargo economics, strategy, and market trends with a specific focus on how the industry will tackle disruptions and how firms can adapt their business models.

The UAE will host the ShipTek International Conference from Wednesday, 29 January to Thursday 30 January in Dubai. The two-day conference will gather industry experts, including managing director at Hapag-Lloyd Carolin Stumm, CEO Adani Ports Nicolai Friis, VP International Maritime Industries Justin Taylor, CEO Tristra Tim Coffin, and others to discuss new tech and developments in the maritime industry.

The UAE will host the Middle East Bunkering Convention from Monday, 3 February to Wednesday, 5 February in Dubai. The event will focus on the marine fuels sector to address the future of the industry in light of geopolitical issues, environmental regulation, and the future of artificial intelligence and digitalization.

Saudi Arabia will host the Airport Expansion Conference from Tuesday, 4 February to Wednesday, 5 February in Riyadh. The two-day conference will feature over 30 speakers to discuss challenges faced by Saudi Airports and highlight Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 with a clear focus on expansion, tech, and strategic partnerships.

The UAE will host the Middle East Breakbulk Conference from Monday, 10 February to Tuesday, 11 February in Dubai. The event gathers giant manufacturers, EPCs, and service providers to discuss the latest solutions in breakbulk and heavy-lift logistics across the Middle East and Africa. The two-day event features an artificial intelligence (AI) seminar, a heavy lift workshop, a chartering workshop, and a women in breakbulk panel.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.