The global aviation industry is bracing for another rocky year: Boeing’s delivery delays and general supply chain disruptions are set to persist into 2025, aviation consultants told CNBC. “Boeing is going to be losing a lot of territory to our friends at Airbus. There’s just no question about it,” aviation consulting firm Boyd Group president and CFO Mike Boyd told the news outlet.

Playing catchup: Airbus’s end-of-year rush is forecast to have increased its preliminary 2024 deliveries by 4% y-o-y to reach 766 jets, falling just below its annual target of 770 jets. Meanwhile, Boeing’s deliveries took a hit last year, and is expected to have delivered 340 commercial jets in 2024 down from 480 the year prior, according to Flightplan data forecasts. Both aircraft manufacturers have yet to release official 2024 delivery figures.

The timeline for real change is still unclear: Boeing’s “new CEO and new people in there say they’re doing something, but there is such a deep problem,” Boyd said. The firm still has a long way to go due to “real deficiencies” that the firm is still attempting to address, US Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg told Reuters. The planemaker is not expected to make significant improvements in delivery results before the end of 2025, aviation intelligence firm OAG chief analyst John Grant told CNBC.

Airlines are feeling the blow: “We don’t expect to get [new Boeing aircraft] until 2026. And we need them,” Lufthansa Chief Executive Carsten Spohr told journalists in October. Emirates President Tim Clark slammed Boeing the same month for its 777x delivery delays, saying that the airline “had to make significant and highly expensive amendments to [its] fleet programmes as a result of Boeing’s multiple contractual shortfalls.”

Airbus hasn’t escaped unscathed: Airbus is assessing the financial impact of last-minute concessions made to airlines to address a series of minor quality issues, following the rush to deliver a total of 123 jets in December. Weak supply chains are forcing planemakers to compensate airlines for cosmetic defects or fork out for extra maintenance if airlines are willing to take on aircrafts before deadlines. Airbus has reportedly made financial pledges or offered commercial incentives, dubbed concession letters, to make several December deliveries.

Lags in the aviation supply chain are impacting the sector at a global scale, amid shortages of spare parts and issues with engine maintenance. “It’s been a very difficult period, and there’s no real sign of this going away anytime soon,” Sobie Aviation analyst Brendan Sobie said. “These are problems that will take years — not a single year — to resolve.”

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