How Lebanon and Qatar’s private sector performed in December: Purchasing manager indices (PMI) tracking the non-energy private sector in Lebanon and Qatar told a refreshingly positive tale in December. Lebanon’s headline figure increased for the second consecutive month as the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire buoyed confidence, albeit still settling below the 50.0 mark, while Qatar held well above the threshold.

REMEMBER- The all-important 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth. Anything above 50 denotes expansion, while anything below indicates contraction.

Lebanon’s troubles ease significantly: Lebanon’s headline figure rose to an eight-month high of 48.8 in December, up from 48.1 in November, according to Blominvest Bank’s Lebanon PMI (pdf). The country’s non-oil private sector activity saw the softest deterioration in market conditions since April, as rates of contraction in new orders and output eased.

New export orders declined at their slowest pace in 10 months, indicating a cooling of the contraction in international customer demand. The decline in purchasing activity also cooled in December, with private sector firms only making slight cutbacks. Similarly, input stocks were unaltered on the month, with some firms even bolstering their holdings to respond to stronger demand, signalling stable inventory levels.

Employment was stable with staffing capacity showing no change in December, while input costs increased at the slowest pace in three months despite persistent cost pressures and growth in supplier charges. Private sector firms continued to lean on their clients to share the costs of higher operating expenses, albeit the rate of output rise inflation slowed to a three-month low.

Meanwhile, it’s more of the same in Qatar: Qatar’s non-energy private sector indicated sustained expansion in business conditions in December, with a jump in employment, new orders, and output, according to Qatar Financial Center PMI (pdf). The nation’s headline figure remained the same, staying steady at 52.9 in December.

New orders increased in December on the back of an expanded appetite for goods and services, causing order backlogs to rise for the third time in the last four months. Outputs grew at a fast rate, pushing purchasing activity to increase at their third-fasted rate on record.

Hiring surged once again with employment and wages rose at the fastest pace on record over the last four months. This growth was attributed to efforts to improve services, gain new businesses, and address outstanding workloads. Wage pressures continued to persist in December.

Input price inflation slowed from October’s four-year high, with prices for goods and services dipping for the fifth consecutive month as firms provided discount prices amid rising competition.

Lebanon’s entering 2025 on a high note: Business confidence spiked in December, with sentiment surging to a survey record driven by strong optimism in the wake of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. Respondents also expressed hopes for the upcoming Lebanese presidential elections, to be held 9 January, and the formation of a new government.

Qatari companies continue to harbour a confident outlook for the year ahead, expecting activity and new contracts to expand amid stable market conditions, construction, and tourism demand.

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