Good morning, nice people. The regional logistics news cycle is ticking along as we bear in on the weekend. We have more good news for Qatar’s burgeoning LNG exports market from Shell this morning, along with a dive into Kuwait and Qatar’s November PMI reports.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Egypt eyes USD 500 mn in railway projects in Iraq: Egyptian state-owned Holding Company for Roads and Bridges is looking to secure USD 500 mn worth of railway projects with the Iraqi government as a part of Iraq’s plan to spend USD 100 bn on infrastructure over three years, two unnamed sources tell Asharq Business. The company has submitted technical and financial proposals for the projects, with negotiations ongoing and a final agreement expected by March 2025.

Remember: Iraq has been emerging as a prime destination for infrastructure investment of late, with a delegation from the Contractors Union visiting Baghdad last month to scope out construction sector investments at the Iraq Investment Forum.

#2- EOIs are open for developing Saudi’s new Taif Airport: The Saudi Civil Aviation Holding (Matarat) and the National Center for Privatisation & PPP (NCP) have called for Expression of Interest (EOI) applications for the new Taif International Airport project, Zawya reports. The deadline for submissions is 10 January 2025.

REMEMBER- The development of the Taif New International Airport to reach a capacity of 4 mn passengers in 2030 and 7.4 mn passengers in 2053, up from the airport’s current 600k passenger capacity.

#2- Turkey wants to increase trade exchange with Iraq to USD 30 bn, Iraqi News reports, citing comments made by Turkish Trade Minister Omer Bolat at a joint press conference with Iraqi Minister of Trade Atheer Al-Ghurairi. The volume of trade exchange between the two countries reportedly stands at USD 20 bn, Bolot said. Turkey’s exports to Iraq in 2024 were over USD 10.8 bn from January to October, a 5.3% y-o-y increase. Iraq’s exports to Turkey fell to USD 3.7 bn during the same period, tallying a total trade volume of USD 14.5 bn in the time period. According to the Turkish ministry of foreign affairs, Turkey exports jewelry, machinery, furniture, and textiles to Iraq and imports crude oil, jewelry, and copper.

ON A RELATED NOTE- Iraq suspended all operations at the Shuaiba refinery in Basra last Saturday due to a backlog of fuel oil storage tanks, Al Arabiya reports, citing three refinery officials as saying. The work flow refinery — which produced 260k barrels of fuel oil per day before the shutdown — was disrupted after no vessels arrived at the Khor Al Zubair port to load exported fuel oil since mid-last week. “Resuming operations depends on the arrival of ships to load the fuel oil, which is causing the storage tanks to overload. This process is under the control of the state oil marketer SOMO,” an unnamed source familiar with the matter said.

#3- China bans mineral-related exports to the US: China has banned shipments of several minerals and metals including gallium, geranium and antimony that are linked to semiconductor, fibre optic cable and solar cell production, Reuters reports. The ban also requires stricter review of end-usage for graphite items shipped to the US. The move comes on the heels of the US launching its third crackdown on China’s semiconductors industry, halting exports to 140 companies including chip equipment maker Naura Technology Group, according to a separate Reuters report. Controls are to be placed on semiconductors manufacturing equipment needed to produce advanced-node integrated circuits, certain etch, deposition, lithography, ion implantation, annealing, metrology inspection and cleaning tools.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices rose in early morning trading as investors weigh up geopolitical tensions and Opec+ supply cut extensions against weakened demand, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures gained USD 0.16 trading at USD 73.78 a barrel by GMT 04.40, while US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures rose USD 0.14 to USD 70.08 a barrel. Brent prices saw their greatest gain in two weeks yesterday, rising 2.5%.

#2- Opec+ crude production was up 120k bbl / d in November at an average of 27 mn bbl / d, according to a Bloomberg survey. Libya led the increase, boosting its output by 110k bbl / d to 1.14 mn bbl / d following the restart of its Sharara oil field. The UAE also added 90k bbl / d, reaching an average of 3.26 mn bbl / d, as it begins ramping up ahead of a special allowance from the group to pump more next year. Meanwhile, Iraq slashed production for the third month in a row, cutting some 70k bbl / d at 4.1 mn bbl / d. Despite taking steps to improve compliance, Baghdad is still pumping above its Opec+-mandated quota.

Meanwhile, it is looking increasingly likely that the Saudi and Russia-led alliance will postpone unwinding production cuts into 1Q 2025 as sluggish global demand and an uptick in non-Opec+ production continues to push down prices, Reuters reports, citing several unnamed sources. The increase, originally set at 180k bbl / d, has already been postponed twice due to global market conditions. A further delay into next year’s first quarter “ is all but priced in,” oil broker PVM’s John Evans told the newswire.

The next checkpoint? The bloc is scheduled to hold their December ministerial meeting tomorrow following a flurry of phone calls and in-person meetings between officials to iron out an understanding going in. A 300k bbl / d bump to the UAE’s quota that is set to take effect in January — and was originally cleared by the group in June — is likely to be brought up for debate, sources told Reuters.

#3- China’s oil imports set to peak in 2025: China's decades-long dominance as the country's demand for crude oil imports approaches an expected peak as early as next year, Reuters reports citing the Statistical Review of World Energy (pdf). The accelerated peak is powered by slowed-down growth and the rapid shift to EVs and hybrids, which surpassed combustion engine sales for the first time in July. Analysts predict that China's petrochemical sector will continue to drive some demand, but overall crude imports will still see a decline, or, at best, marginal growth in the coming years.

What comes next for China? While imports are peaking soon, the country’s total oil demand — including naphtha and LPG — will peak towards 2030. The country's refinery sector is also set for consolidation due to low refining margins and overcapacity.

A trend in 2024: Despite a temporary bounce in China’s crude imports in November, the first ten months of 2024 saw a 3.4% annual decline. The slowdown has impacted global crude prices and frustrated OPEC's supply plans.

#4- Baltic index continues decline: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — dropped about 4.7% to 1,237 points on Tuesday, dropping to its lowest since September 2023. The capesize index fell 181 points to 1,792 points, while the panamax index was down to a 16-month low of 1,005 points. The smaller supramax index remains unchanged at 979 points.

DATA POINT-

Total air cargo demand jumped 9.8% y-o-y in cargo tonne-km in October with air cargo capacity rising by 5.9% y-o-y, according to an International Air Transport Association (IATA) statement. Air cargo yields globally, including any additional surcharges, grew by 10.6% y-o-y this year, and surged up 49% compared to 2019 levels. MENA — which makes up 13.5% of the world share — experienced a 4.5% y-o-y growth, while air cargo capacity increased by 0.8% y-o-y.

Looking forward: “While 2024 is shaping up to be a banner year for air cargo, we must look to 2025 with some caution,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said in the statement, “The air cargo industry’s proven adaptability to rapidly evolving geopolitical and economic situations is likely to be tested as the Trump agenda unfolds.” US President-elect Donald Trump plans to increase and impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China when he is sworn in on January 20 January.

***YOU’RE READING EnterpriseAM Logistics, the essential MENA publication for senior execs who care about the industry that connects producers and retailers to global markets. We’re out Monday through Thursday by 9:15am in Cairo and Riyadh and 11:15am in the UAE.

EnterpriseAM Logistics is available without charge thanks to the generous support of our friends at Hassan Allam Utilities, Transmar, and AK-Ships.

Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy of Enterprise Logistics.

Want to send us a story idea, request coverage, ask for a correction, or otherwise get in touch? Reach out to us on logistics@enterprisemea.com.

DID YOU KNOW that we also cover Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the MENAclimate industry ?
***

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Morocco will host the Rail Industry Summit from Tuesday, 10 December to Wednesday, 11 December in Casablanca. The two-day summit includes pre-scheduled business meetings with potential partners, conferences, and themed workshops on new market trends and future strategies presented by OEMs on infrastructure, rolling stock, embedded equipment and railway vehicle interiors.

The UAE will host the Middle East Business Aviation Show from Tuesday, 10 December to Thursday, 11 December in Dubai. The event will showcase innovations from over 135 exhibitors and will have over 25 jets on display, with over 55 speakers offering insight on market trends.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.