Could a second Trump presidency spark a trade war? A second US presidential term for Donald Trump could usher in a 10% tariff on all imports into the US and a 50% tariff on goods from top trading partner China, Reuters reported. The tariffs would likely spark retaliation from US trading partners — even political allies such as countries in Europe, Japan, South Korea, and India — who could place tariffs of their own on US imports.

How could they retaliate? US commodity exports will likely be the easiest target. As a major buyer of US commodities, China would likely effectively ban all commodity imports from the US — either formally or informally — if Trump imposes the 50% tariff. If the European Union, Japan, and South Korea impose 10% tariffs on US crude, US companies would be forced to either offer discounts or lower their output to keep their prices competitive.

The Panama Canal is set to increase the number of daily slots for vessels to 36, up from 34, starting September in light of the early arrival of the rainy season, Reuters reports. Panama currently operates 34 transits per day and will increase to 35 transits by five August, and then increase to 36 transits per day by September, deputy administrator Ilya Episino said. The Canal Authority expects the outlook to increase total revenues by 18% y-o-y to USD 5.6 bn during the FY 2024-25.

Not a first for the canal: The Panama Canal added three daily slots for transit through its Panamax Lox back in March to bring the total to 27. The canal increased its daily transits to 24 in January of this year at the end of the rainy season.

Background: The Panama Canal placed significant limits on vessels transiting the waterway last year due to a drought decreasing its water levels.

Europe’s reliance on Russian LNG is deepening as the US directs more ships to Asia, Bloomberg reports. Despite European efforts to wean off Russian supplies, imports of liquefied natural gas from Russia’s Yamal LNG have remained stable, although pipeline flows from the east are narrower than in early 2022. A drop in US shipments to Europe was recorded after the Freeport LNG facility in Texas suspended loadings for more than two weeks following Hurricane Beryl.

OTHER STORIES WORTH KNOWING THIS MORNING-

  • China’s manufacturing activity drops in July: China’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dipped to 49.4 last month, down from 49.5 in June, falling for a third month. The outcome beat market expectations of 49.3, but still indicated that China needs to implement more stimulus to overcome stunted growth spurred by job insecurity and a protracted property crisis. (Reuters)
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