Good morning, friends. It’s another busy start to the week in the regional logistics realm with updates in the shipping, aviation and storage subsectors, but first, let’s kick in on the G7…

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY ABROAD- Is the G7 angling for a trade war with China? Finance ministers meeting in Italy yesterday warned that they are upset with the role China is playing in global business — and could move to take action. The move comes as both the US and EU look to apply more assertive policies regarding their trade with China, with Le Marire stressing that the group definitely seeks to “avoid any kind of trade war.”

In their words: “While reaffirming our interest in a balanced and reciprocal collaboration, we express concerns about China’s comprehensive use of non-market policies and practices that undermines our workers, industries, and economic resilience. We will continue to monitor the potential negative impacts of overcapacity and will consider taking steps to ensure a level playing field,” a joint statement read.

The story grabbed ink in the int’l press over the weekend: Reuters | AP | Bloomberg | The Financial Times | The New York Times | The Washington Post | Le Monde

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WATCH THIS SPACE-

Bahri, Gasco break off plans for logistics JV: Saudinational shipping company Bahri and theNational Gas and Industrialization Co (Gasco) terminated an MoU aimed at setting up a joint venture focused on logistics and land transportation, they said in separate disclosures to Tadawul (here and here). The joint venture was deemed not feasible for both parties after completing the necessary studies. There was no financial impact from the termination of the MoU, which was signed in October last year.

Riyadh Air’s certification flights are scheduled for take-off between September and November of this year, as the Public Investment Fund’s flagship carrier seeks to line up an operator’s certificate in preparation for its commercial launch in the summer of 2025, Simple Flying reports, citing comments made by CEO Tony Douglas. “We’ll go into service in the summer of next year,” Douglas said. Riyadh Air is set to operate a fleet of Boeing 787s.

What are certification flights? They are a series of test flights designed to evaluate the safety, performance, and functionality of new jets, in addition to their compliance with regulatory standards.They are a prerequisite for obtaining a license from the relevant authorities to commercially operate a fleet.

Deutsche Bahn narrows bidders for DB Schenker to four: German Deutsche Bahn has shortlisted four bidders vying for its logistics subsidiary, DB Schenker, with the shortlisted companies including a financial investor, a strategic investor, a European investor and one from the Middle East, Reuters reports, citing unnamed sources. One or more of the bids exceed the EUR 15 bn mark, the sources added, with other bids ranging between EUR 13-14 bn.

REMEMBER- Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) hasreportedly been tapped by global investment manager CVC to join its consortium to bid for the company. It is also in talks with Singapore's GIC.

Deutsche Bahn is expected to make a decision by the end of the year, with the transaction expected to close sometime next year, the sources added.

Adia is not the only Middle East bidder, with the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ and Saudi shipping firm Bahri also expressing interest in acquiring DB Schenker. Deutsche Bahn had kicked off the sales process for its logistics subsidiary late last year. Deutsche Bahn’s offloading of DB Schenker is expected to generate between EUR 12 bn to EUR 15 bn, which the railway operator will apply towards paying down its EUR 30 bn debt and doubling down on its core railway operations.

Egypt is reportedly investing EGP 8 bn (USD 170 mn) into six strategic warehouses for pharma and med supplies across several governorates, Asharq Business reports, citing an unnamed government official. Work on the project is currently underway with delivery expected next year, the official said. Egypt’s government inked a contract with Orascom Weitz last June for the project.

DISRUPTION WATCH-

Shipping costs are ramping up as businesses line up goods for shipment for the holiday season earlier than usual due to Red Sea disruptions,The Financial Times reports. Spot rates for shipping a 40ft container from the Far East to northern Europe hit USD 4.3k last week, some three times what rates were at the same time last year, Xeneta tracking data showed. Despite still being lower than highs seen during the start of the Red Sea crisis, freight rates are still unseasonably high. “The peak season has been brought forward,” Kuehne + Nagel sea logistics head Michael Aldwell told the FT.

Better safe than sorry: Importers have pre-booked shipments as early as April, and are stocking up on summer goods, in a bid to build resilience into their supply chains, Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said. These dynamics are a direct consequence of Houthi-led attacks, with no clear indications as of yet of when they will cease, Sand added.

ON A RELATED NOTE- “Container crunch” threatens spike in freight rates:Ocean freight spot rates have jumped 30% over the past weeks as a container capacity crunch worsens impacting supply chains ahead of peak shipping season, CNBC reported on Thursday. Longer ocean transits due to reroutes away from the Red Sea and bad weather have also buoyed rates. Meanwhile, vessels are skipping ports in order to speed up their journeys, thereby not picking up idle containers and further contributing to container shortages. “From the Far East into the US West Coast, it is likely spot rates will surpass the level seen at the height of the Red Sea crisis earlier this year, which demonstrates how dramatic the recent increases have been,” Xeneta analyst Emily Stausbøll said. Elevated logistics costs due to higher freight rates may be passed on to customers, leading to a new round of inflation, CNBC warned.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices remained steady ahead of OPEC+ convening next week and news on voluntary output cuts for the rest of the year, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures for July inched up to USD 82.30 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ticked up to USD 77.96 a barrel as of 04.09 GMT.

Opec+ is expected to extend voluntary oil cuts well into 2H 2024 when it meets next week, Bloomberg reported on Friday. The group of oil-producing nations is scheduled to review and decide on output policy during an online meeting on Sunday, 2 June, instead of the usual in-person meeting previously planned on 1 June. They will decide on whether to extend oil-market-balancing production cuts of 2 mn barrels per day into the second half of the year.

#2- Iran has approved a plan to boost oil output to some 4 mn barrels per day (bpd), up from 3.6 mn bpd presently, Reuters reports, citing Tasnim news agency. The policy was approved at an economic council meeting headed by Iran's interim president Mohammad Mokhber. No timeline for the ramp up in production has been disclosed.

#3- Iraq’s northern refineries to handle nearly 600k barrels per day (bpd),INA reported last week, citing a statement by Iraq’s North Refineries Company (NRC). “The combined refining capacity of the current and added North Refineries Company will be 584 thousand barrels per day, which is an unprecedented refining capacity in the refining sector,” NRC’s Project Manager Atta Aliwi Hussein Al Hamdani said.

#4- Baltic index sees weekly fall: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — edged up 0.06% to 1,797 points on Friday, but fell for its second straight week, decreasing 2.55% w-o-w, Reuters reported on Friday. The capesize index ticked up 1.12% to 2,613 points, but noted a weekly decline, while panamax was down by 0.44% to 1,824 points. Meanwhile, the smaller supramax segment shed 19 points at 1,326 points.

WORTH READING-

Six key trade arteries threaten to upset global trade if disrupted and spike inflation further,Bloomberg writes in a feature-length piece citing an analysis of data from Clarkson Research. Global supply chains for mass consumed commodities leverage economies of scale by concentrating production in certain locations, but this comes with the caveat of making them more susceptible to disruptions. Obstacles to exports and imports — such as the closure of a key trade choke point — have the potential to increase inflation even further, Bloomberg writes.

Where are the six choke points? The report lists Bab El Mandeb, the Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Hormuz, the Danish Straits, the Turkish Straits, and the Panama Canal as important gateways mediating the passage of large volumes of trade. The sites are vulnerable to different disruptors, including climate change, Houthi-led attacks, and ship collisions, the report said.

The Strait of Hormuz has been in the news recently: An Iranian closure of the strait could see oil prices double, Bloomberg said. We took a deep dive into trade disruption risks at the Strait of Hormuz here.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host the IATA Annual General Meeting and World Air Transport Summit from Sunday, 2 June to Tuesday, 4 June in Dubai. The event will bring together aviation industry players to showcase what can be achieved through supportive government policies and decisions. Airline leaders will make decisions during the event to formalize industry positions and set IATA’s strategic agenda.

Lebanon will host the East Med Maritime Conference on Thursday, 27 June in Beirut. The event will gather industry leaders to discuss the latest developments in shipping, maritime, and offshore industries to discuss industry innovations, alternative fuels, and decarbonizing emissions in the maritime sector and ports.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.