Good morning, nice people. We have the latest from the Red Sea debacle at the top of our agenda this morning but also some significant news from the UAE in the arena of storage and warehousing. Let’s jump in.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- TheIMF projects an increased likelihood of a soft landing as global economic growth balances out, according to its January World Economic Outlook report (pdf). The Bretton Woods institution forecasts global economic growth for 2024 at 3.1% — 0.2% higher than what was published in October — increasing to 3.2% by 2025 on the back of an improved outlook for the USA, emerging and developing economies, and fiscal packages in China. Global inflation is also cooling, which when combined with stronger-than-expected growth, has decreased the likelihood of a hard landing. Challenges remain in terms of supply chain disruptions — including the Red Sea crisis — persistent underlying inflation, and a real estate crisis in China, the report said.
What are the projections for emerging markets? Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow faster than the global average, with growths of 4.1% and 42.% forecasted for 2024 and 2025. Advanced economies are projected to grow at 1.5% in 2024, ramping up to 1.8% in 2025, the report said.
#2- Panel that blew off Alaska Airlines plane was likely missing bolts: The Alaska Airlines flight that experienced a mishap earlier this month was likely missing bolts that were needed to secure the panel that blew off the plane mid-flight, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing people with knowledge of the matter. The lack of markings on a plug door indicate employees failed to place the bolts after reinstalling the door during production. The sources added that there were also paperwork issues at Boeing's Renton factory. The National Transportation Safety Board is carrying out metallurgical tests on the plug door, but the results have not yet been revealed.
REMEMBER: Boeing has been struggling with supplier issues that have resulted in defects in two of its major aircraft classes — the 737 Max and the 787 Dreamliner — as well as delivery delays. The company is facing mounting scrutiny after the Alaska Airlines incident earlier this month. Subsequent investigations by the airline revealed manufacturing flaws in its Boeing 737 MAX 9 fleet.
MARKET WATCH-
#1- KSA tells Aramco to hold back production capacity expansion: KSA’s government directed Saudi Aramco to pause expansion plans and target a maximum sustained production capacity of 12 mn barrels per day (bpd), Reuters reports. The move stipulates production levels 1 mn bpd lower than the target set by the kingdom’s Energy Ministry in March 2020 when the country was jostling with Russia over market share. Saudi Arabia currently produces next to 9 mn bpd, 3 mn bpd below its capacity due to OPEC+production cuts, the newswire said. The country has the world’s only spare capacity, providing a safety margin in the event of unforeseen global disruptions, the newswire said.
Why is KSA cutting back capacity? The move may indicate “a government expectation that demand for its oil will no longer rise as strongly as previously expected,” the newswire said, citing a note by a Morgan Stanley analyst, as major consumers including the US and the EU adopt programs driving a transition to cleaner energy, the newswire explained.
#2- Oil rallied in Tuesday trading following a more than 1% fall the previous day, as geopolitical concerns in the Middle East shored up prices while a weak outlook for China’s demand balanced gains, Reuters reports. Brent rose 0.1% to USD 82.48 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was up 0.3% to USD 77.02 a barrel, the newswire said. Both products had dropped more than USD 1 on Monday as a real estate crisis in China dented the outlook for the country’s demand. At the same time tensions following a drone attack in Jordan that had resulted in the deaths of US servicemen, and was attributed to an Iranian-backed group, buoyed prices, the newswire said.
DATA POINT-
Arab LNG exports fall in 2023: Qatar’s LNG exports saw a slight fall to 79.9 mn tons in 2023 down from 80.1 mn tons the previous year, according to a report (pdf) from the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries. The UAE’s LNG exports also fell 6.6% y-o-y during the same period to settle at 5 mn tons. Oman’s LNG exports followed the downward trend, falling 1.7% y-o-y to 11.4 mn tons. Algeria’s LNG exports also decreased 26% y-o-y to 12.68 mn tons during the year. Egypt’s LNG exports saw a marked 51.8% y-o-y decline in 2023 to 3.52 mn tons, down from 2022’s 7.4 mn tons record, the report said.
REMEMBER- The US overtook Australia and Qatar to become the world’s leading LNG exporter in 2023, exporting some 91.2 tons.
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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-
The UAE will host the Middle East Bunkering Convention from Monday, 5 February through to Wednesday, 7 February in Dubai. The event will bring together industry experts to tap into issues affecting the global marine fuel sector, including supply chains, decarbonization, and new fuels.
Holland will host theCargo Facts EMEA from Monday, 5 February through to Wednesday, 7 February in Amsterdam. The event will bring together air freight industry leaders from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa to discuss the latest trends, forecasts, and technological innovations.
The UAE will host Sustainable Aviation Futures MENA from Monday, 12 February through to Wednesday, 14 February in Dubai. The event will see 80 expert speakers and upwards of 200 high level attendants and will handle topics pertaining to regulation, financing, and investments in Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) in MENA.
The UAE will host the Future Warehouse & Logistics Conference from Monday, 12 February to Wednesday, 14 February in Dubai. The event will handle means for supply chain leaders to boost resilience and overcome challenges, with discussions on disruptions, sustainability, Internet of Things (IoT), automation, workplace management and other topics.
The UAE will host theTradeTech Forum on Tuesday, 27 February in Abu Dhabi. The forum will see some 180 trade leaders and experts discuss the technologically advanced trade environment and a showcase of trade tech solutions.
The UAE will host The Logistics Middle East Award on Wednesday, 6 March in Dubai. The awards ceremony brings together industry experts to celebrate the sector’s biggest accomplishments over the previous 12 months.The deadline for submitting nominations is Friday, 19 January.
KSA will host a special World Economic Forum event from Sunday, 28 April through to Monday, 29 April in Riyadh. The event will focus on global collaboration and energy.
The UAE will host The Electric Vehicle Innovation Summit from Monday, 20 May to Wednesday, 22 May in Abu Dhabi. The event will see industry leaders come together to discuss sustainable mobility and tapping into groundbreaking advancements in electric vehicles while engaging with key decision-makers.
Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.


